Season 2026-27 · Matchweek 7 · 10/10 played

Season's 7. matchweek against expectation: no clear upsets, the favourite won 7/10

Season 2026-27, matchweek 7: 10 matches played, and every result has been read from round data. This story sets the results against the expectation, read from three sources before the round: the market expectation (▷, when available), the season table before the round (●, when both sides have at least three matches) and last season's final table (●). The favourite is the market's favourite whenever the market expectation is available, because it is the only true probability and already prices in both tables. One round does not tell where the season ends up, but it tells exactly where expectations and outcomes parted ways, and those differences are what deserve following. Two conclusions come out of the measurement: which were the round's biggest upsets against the expectation, and who carried on as expected. Expectation held in 7/10 matches.

Signals.Signals editorial team · every number checked against the data · Thu 16.7.2026how to doubt us

This round in history

Most predictable round of the season: 7/10 favourite won, more often than in 77 % of rounds in 2021–26 (176 rounds). The comparison rounds for 2021–26 are assembled from the result rows by date, and the favourite is the favourite by pre-match probability ▷.

The round's biggest surprises

Biggest first.

Aston Villa beat Newcastle 1-0 · ▷ market: Newcastle 43 % · ● season table before the round: Newcastle 11th vs Aston Villa 16th · ● last season: Newcastle 12th vs Aston Villa 4th
Liverpool beat Brentford 2-1 · ▷ market: Brentford 40 % · ● season table before the round: Brentford 4th vs Liverpool 9th · ● last season: Brentford 9th vs Liverpool 5th
Man Utd shared the points with Leeds 1-1 · ▷ market: Leeds 41 % · ● season table before the round: Leeds 7th vs Man Utd 13th · ● last season: Leeds 14th vs Man Utd 3rd

An upset here is not an interpretation but a measured distance from the expectation. The market expectation is shown only as a probability, never as a price. The season table weighs more the more matches have been played; last season is the base against which the early season is read. A promoted side has no place from last season, so in that source it is always the underdog. Order: a clear expectation first, then goal difference, because a three-goal defeat is a different thing from a one-goal one. A draw is a smaller upset than a defeat, but it is still points the favourite did not get.

Everton (13.) – Chelsea (10.)0–2

Brentford (9.) – Liverpool (5.)1–2

Fulham (11.) – Hull City (promoted)1–0

Man City (2.) – Ipswich (promoted)3–2

Newcastle (12.) – Aston Villa (4.)0–1

Bournemouth (6.) – Sunderland (7.)2–0

Brighton (8.) – Crystal Palace (15.)5–0

Leeds (14.) – Man Utd (3.)1–1

Nott'm Forest (16.) – Arsenal (1.)0–1

Tottenham (17.) – Coventry (promoted)3–1

In brackets the place in last season's final table; a promoted side has no place. Expectation per match in the upset list (▷ market, ● season table before the round, ● last season). ● results from round data.

Concerns to the watch-list

No top-end team from last season made the watch list. A concern is not a forecast or a verdict. It is a bookkeeping entry meaning that something measurable dipped below last season right at the opening.

Carried on as they left off

Expectation held in 7/10 matches. These carried on as expected.

Man City won 3-2 against Ipswich · ▷ market: Man City 76 % · ● season table before the round: Man City 1st vs Ipswich 10th · ● last season: Man City 2nd vs Ipswich (promoted)
Tottenham won 3-1 against Coventry · ▷ market: Tottenham 64 % · ● season table before the round: Tottenham 19th vs Coventry 14th · ● last season: Tottenham 17th vs Coventry (promoted)
Brighton won 5-0 against Crystal Palace · ▷ market: Brighton 63 % · ● season table before the round: Brighton 3rd vs Crystal Palace 12th · ● last season: Brighton 8th vs Crystal Palace 15th
Arsenal won 1-0 against Nott'm Forest · ▷ market: Arsenal 58 % · ● season table before the round: Nott'm Forest 15th vs Arsenal 2nd · ● last season: Nott'm Forest 16th vs Arsenal 1st

This figure is the round's single most important conclusion, because it tells how much the expectation still explains the results. A match that goes to form is as much an observation as an upset: it narrows the uncertainty around the expected level, even if it proves nothing on its own. That is why the matches the favourites held are recorded too, not just the upsets. Misses and hits are published with the same weight, because the value of a reading is only measured when both are visible side by side in the same table.

Let us say the limit out loud: one round is not a trend. We do not claim a deviation predicts collapse or that a holding start guarantees a top spot. The claims we made from this round are logged on the Matches list as previews and graded against outcomes, and this digest lives by the same discipline: once the next round is played, the same read runs again and the watch-list entries either firm up or drop off.

● Measured.Results and half-time splits are read from round data. The expectation before the round comes from three sources: the market expectation (▷ a probability computed from the average of closing prices, overround removed; prices are not shown), the season table before the round (● played matches only, weighted by the number played) and last season's final table (● the 2025-26 result rows). The favourite is the market's favourite whenever there is a market, otherwise the favourite of the stronger table source. An upset is a match or a point the favourite lost; its size is the strength of the expectation and the goal difference, not a judgement. A promoted side has no place from last season. Every match's preview and outcome areOn the Matches list · method →Track record .

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