Signals ⚽ · My team

Arsenal

SHRINE OF THE WEEK

”You can never escape the history of a club like this. At some clubs, success is accidental sometimes, but at Arsenal, it is compulsory.”

Arsène Wenger, huhtikuu 1998

THE SQUAD

GKRaya

DEFWhite

DEFKonsa

DEFGabriel

MIDLewis-Skelly

MIDRice

MIDMerino

MIDMadueke

MIDØdegaard

MIDEze

FWDGyökeres

● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 8

fitness concernformno measured deviation

No measured deviations in the core squad right now.

Bench

MIDZubimendiDEFHincapieMIDDowman

NEXT CHECK

LAST MATCH

Arsenal – Everton 2–0 (half-time 1–0) · goals: Gabriel, Konsa ● result: round data

Sat 24 Oct

PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT

No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.

Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Arsenal shoot this season 12.4 times per match (12th in the league, last season 14.5 and 4th in the league), Everton: 13.7 shots conceded (league 9.). The match's shot count tells which number held. ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · last season for comparison
What happened: the pressure held: 20 shots (baseline 12.4, opponent concedes 13.7). ● round data
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Arsenal score this season from 12.6 percent of their shots (6th in the league, last season 12.9 and 3rd in the league), Everton: save percentage on shots on target 76.7 (league 5.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created. ●
What happened: the finishing held: 2 goals from 1.85 expected (+0.15), 10 % of shots scored. ●
Third: Set pieces. Arsenal win this season 4.7 corners per match (9th in the league, last season 5.7 and 5th in the league), Everton: 5.1 corners conceded (league 5.). The expectation is at least 5 corners. ●
What happened: expectation met: 12 corners (expected 5), 2 goals. ●
Fourth: The duels carry. 53 % of duels won (338/638), league 2./20 ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · match statistics
What happened: observation did not repeat, 46 % of duels won. ●
One more: Player pick. Bukayo Saka is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 23.1 points on average in 7 matches, top three 3 times. ● season 2026-27 · match ratings before the round
What happened: Player pick did not hold: Bukayo Saka did not play in this match (not in the match ratings, which cover everyone who played). ●
Finally: Style of play. Keeps the ball: possession 61 % and 521 passes/match (league 2.). ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · match statistics
What happened: Style claim held: possession 58 % (league level 50 %). ●

From this match: 4/6 held

Threat by half (expected goals, gold = Arsenal): shots 13/3 and 7/5 Two-half split, not a minute-by-minute curve.

Events by minute: Arsenal on top, Everton below, 2 goals and 6 cards. Vertical lines at minutes 45 and 90. ● match events

Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.

This match's verdict on the Matches list →

NEXT MATCH

Liverpool – Arsenal

Sun 1.11. · 18:30 · ○ fixture info, as of 25.10.

This match's preview on the Matches list →

PREVIEW READING

These claims are graded against the outcome after the match.

Pressure against defence: Arsenal shoot this season 12.4 times per match (12th in the league, last season 14.5 and 4th in the league), Liverpool: 11.9 shots conceded (league 7.). The match's shot count tells which number held. ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · last season for comparison

Finishing against the goalkeeper: Arsenal score this season from 12.6 percent of their shots (6th in the league, last season 12.9 and 3rd in the league), Liverpool: save percentage on shots on target 66.7 (league 10.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created. ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · last season for comparison

Set pieces: Arsenal win this season 4.7 corners per match (9th in the league, last season 5.7 and 5th in the league), Liverpool: 4.4 corners conceded (league 12.). The expectation is at least 4 corners. ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · last season for comparison

The duels carry: 52 % of duels won (381/731), league 3./20 ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · match statistics

Style of play: Keeps the ball: possession 61 % and 521 passes/match (league 3.). ● season 2026-27 · 8 matches before the round · match statistics

Baseline per match from last season: upper bar Arsenal, lower Liverpool, vertical line the league level. ● measured 2025-26

The watch-list is published. The opponent card fills in about two days before kick-off.

MANAGER'S CORNER · FANTASY

Player card

Declan Rice

Arsenal · midfielder

Downward trend expected

Last 5 matches: 4 goals and assists from only 1.2 xGI ●

In 576 similar past cases, the scoring pace slowed for 86 % within the next 3 matches (when xGI backed the pace, 77 %) ●

xGI per round ●

Match rating 1–10 ▷ 7.2

Next matches ●LIVaway

Compared with 105 midfielders, at least 270 min ●

xG / 90 min0.04

xA / 90 min0.22

Match rating (avg) ▷7.4

Playing time93 %

Season 2026-27, rounds 1–8670 min · 8/8 starts · 0 goals, 4 assists · xGI 2.0 ● measured

▷ in 12.3 % of teams · price 7.4

Player card

Bukayo Saka

Arsenal · midfielder

Breakout possible

Last 5 matches: xGI 3.4, only 1 goals and assists ●

xGI per round ●

Next matches ●LIVaway

Season 2026-27, rounds 1–8596 min · 7/8 starts · 3 goals, 0 assists · xGI 4.8 ● measured

▷ in 9.6 % of teams · price 9.5

Player card

Martin Ødegaard

Arsenal · midfielder

Breakout possible

Last 5 matches: xGI 3.0, only 1 goals and assists ●

xGI per round ●

Next matches ●LIVaway

Season 2026-27, rounds 1–8646 min · 8/8 starts · 2 goals, 0 assists · xGI 4.2 ● measured

▷ in 18.2 % of teams · price 6.8

Player card

Kai Havertz

Arsenal · forward

Breakout possible

Last 5 matches: xGI 2.2, only 1 goals and assists ●

xGI per round ●

Next matches ●LIVaway

Season 2026-27, rounds 1–8586 min · 7/8 starts · 2 goals, 0 assists · xGI 2.6 ● measured

▷ in 5.9 % of teams · price 7.5

Every player in the league, form and risks → All players

TEAM BASELINE

Arsenal

now 2nd in the table · 21 pts ●

last season 1st · 2nd on merit

→

Playing identity now Arsenal keep the ball and build through possession; defend deep. Same profile as last season. ● season 2026-27 · 8 matches · match stats: possession, passes, shots, offsides

What has changed?

Squad after the summer

Left after the 2025-26 season: Leandro Trossard (1997 min, goals+assists 6+6, 9 % of the team's goals, no longer in a league squad).

New starters: Konsa (6 starts, came from Aston Villa); Christos Tzolis (5 starts, from outside the league); Bruno Moura (2 starts, came from Newcastle).

● season 2025-26 minutes, goals and assists · current squad and starts

The team reaches the box: 13/16 shots from inside the box (Sun 6.9. home vs Chelsea).

Signal hypothesis · strengthening · 6 matches

The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.

+ Sun 6.9. home vs Chelsea: 13/16 shots from inside the box

Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?

Evidence in detail

Last season 14.5 shots in the match (no box split from last season, so the comparison is shot count) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Other tracked hypotheses (4)

Hypothesis 2 · Shooting accuracy State · strengthening · 8 matches

Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.

Supports

+ Sun 18.10. away vs Nottingham Forest: 1/9 shots on target (11 %)

+ Fri 21.8. home vs Coventry: 6/20 shots on target (30 %)

+ Mon 31.8. away vs Aston Villa: 2/7 shots on target (29 %)

+ Sat 24.10. home vs Everton: 4/20 shots on target (20 %)

+ Sat 19.9. away vs Brighton: 2/11 shots on target (18 %)

Challenges

− Sun 6.9. home vs Chelsea: 9/16 shots on target (56 %)

− Sat 12.9. away vs Sunderland: 5/11 shots on target (45 %)

− Sat 10.10. home vs Leeds: 6/13 shots on target (46 %)

Last season 34 % of shots on target (186 / 552) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?

Hypothesis 3 · Threat by half State · strengthening · 4 matches

The threat appears weighted towards the second half.

Supports

+ Mon 31.8. away vs Aston Villa: own threat 0.36 → 0.69 xG, opponents 0.09 → 0.23

+ Sat 12.9. away vs Sunderland: own threat 0.77 → 1.11 xG, opponents 0.23 → 1.57

+ Sat 10.10. home vs Leeds: own threat 0.45 → 2.21 xG, opponents 0.44 → 0.30

Challenges

− Sun 6.9. home vs Chelsea: own threat 1.17 → 0.88 xG, opponents 0.15 → 0.24

Last season 58 % of goals came in the second half (41 / 71) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?

Hypothesis 4 · Duels State · mixed · 8 matches

Duels appear to carry this team's game.

Supports

+ Fri 21.8. home vs Coventry: 52 % of duels won (37/71)

+ Mon 31.8. away vs Aston Villa: 57 % of duels won (51/90)

+ Sat 12.9. away vs Sunderland: 59 % of duels won (53/90)

+ Sat 10.10. home vs Leeds: 55 % of duels won (55/100)

Challenges

− Sun 6.9. home vs Chelsea: 49 % of duels won (42/85)

− Sun 18.10. away vs Nottingham Forest: 49 % of duels won (49/100)

− Sat 24.10. home vs Everton: 46 % of duels won (43/93)

− Sat 19.9. away vs Brighton: 50 % of duels won (51/102)

Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?

Hypothesis 5 · Finishing State · mixed · 3 matches

Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.

Supports

+ Sat 19.9. away vs Brighton: 0 goals from 1.63 expected (-1.63)

+ Sat 10.10. home vs Leeds: 2 goals from 2.66 expected (-0.66)

Challenges

− Fri 21.8. home vs Coventry: 3 goals from 1.88 expected (+1.12)

Does not stand out in close periods: 1.4 goals below expected (xG), league 12/20 (12 periods). The game state explains the number at least in part. ● close period = margin of at most 1 goal for at least 75 % of the period's minutes · match stats by half

Last season 1.9 goals and 14.5 shots in the match, 13 % of shots scored ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?

Show 73 findings

Sun 6 Sep home vs Chelsea · Threat by half − own threat 1.17 → 0.88 xG, opponents 0.15 → 0.24

Sun 6 Sep home vs Chelsea · Goalkeeper + 4 saves

Sun 6 Sep home vs Chelsea · Shooting accuracy − 9/16 shots on target (56 %)

Sun 6 Sep home vs Chelsea · Defensive line − 0 offsides won

Sun 6 Sep home vs Chelsea · Discipline + 2 cards, 13 fouls

Sun 6 Sep home vs Chelsea · Duels − 49 % of duels won (42/85)

Sun 6 Sep home vs Chelsea · Possession and duels + possession 55 %, duels 49 %

Sun 6 Sep home vs Chelsea · Set pieces − 5 corners, 3 conceded

Sun 6 Sep home vs Chelsea · Own box − 5 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)

Sun 6 Sep home vs Chelsea · Box pressure + 13/16 shots from inside the box

Sun 18 Oct away vs Nottingham Forest · Goalkeeper − 2 saves

Sun 18 Oct away vs Nottingham Forest · Shooting accuracy + 1/9 shots on target (11 %)

Sun 18 Oct away vs Nottingham Forest · Discipline − 1 cards, 8 fouls

Sun 18 Oct away vs Nottingham Forest · Duels − 49 % of duels won (49/100)

Sun 18 Oct away vs Nottingham Forest · Possession and duels + possession 74 %, duels 49 %

Sun 18 Oct away vs Nottingham Forest · Set pieces − 6 corners, 8 conceded

Sun 18 Oct away vs Nottingham Forest · Own box + 8 shots against from inside the box (14 in total)

Fri 21 Aug home vs Coventry · Finishing − 3 goals from 1.88 expected (+1.12)

Fri 21 Aug home vs Coventry · Goalkeeper − 1 saves

Fri 21 Aug home vs Coventry · Shooting accuracy + 6/20 shots on target (30 %)

Fri 21 Aug home vs Coventry · Defensive line − 0 offsides won

Fri 21 Aug home vs Coventry · Discipline − 1 cards, 10 fouls

Fri 21 Aug home vs Coventry · Duels + 52 % of duels won (37/71)

Fri 21 Aug home vs Coventry · Possession and duels − possession 64 %, duels 52 %

Fri 21 Aug home vs Coventry · Set pieces − 8 corners, 2 conceded

Fri 21 Aug home vs Coventry · Own box − 1 shots against from inside the box (4 in total)

Fri 21 Aug home vs Coventry · Box pressure + 10/20 shots from inside the box

Mon 31 Aug away vs Aston Villa · Threat by half + own threat 0.36 → 0.69 xG, opponents 0.09 → 0.23

Mon 31 Aug away vs Aston Villa · Goalkeeper − 0 saves

Mon 31 Aug away vs Aston Villa · Shooting accuracy + 2/7 shots on target (29 %)

Mon 31 Aug away vs Aston Villa · Defensive line − 0 offsides won

Mon 31 Aug away vs Aston Villa · Discipline − 1 cards, 6 fouls

Mon 31 Aug away vs Aston Villa · Duels + 57 % of duels won (51/90)

Mon 31 Aug away vs Aston Villa · Possession and duels − possession 61 %, duels 57 %

Mon 31 Aug away vs Aston Villa · Set pieces − 4 corners, 2 conceded

Mon 31 Aug away vs Aston Villa · Own box − 3 shots against from inside the box (7 in total)

Sat 24 Oct home vs Everton · Goalkeeper − 3 saves

Sat 24 Oct home vs Everton · Shooting accuracy + 4/20 shots on target (20 %)

Sat 24 Oct home vs Everton · Discipline − 1 cards, 11 fouls

Sat 24 Oct home vs Everton · Duels − 46 % of duels won (43/93)

Sat 24 Oct home vs Everton · Possession and duels + possession 58 %, duels 46 %

Sat 24 Oct home vs Everton · Set pieces − 12 corners, 3 conceded

Sat 24 Oct home vs Everton · Own box − 6 shots against from inside the box (8 in total)

Sat 24 Oct home vs Everton · Box pressure + 12/20 shots from inside the box

Sat 19 Sep away vs Brighton · Finishing + 0 goals from 1.63 expected (-1.63)

Sat 19 Sep away vs Brighton · Goalkeeper − 2 saves

Sat 19 Sep away vs Brighton · Shooting accuracy + 2/11 shots on target (18 %)

Sat 19 Sep away vs Brighton · Defensive line − 0 offsides won

Sat 19 Sep away vs Brighton · Discipline − 1 cards, 11 fouls

Sat 19 Sep away vs Brighton · Duels − 50 % of duels won (51/102)

Sat 19 Sep away vs Brighton · Possession and duels − possession 60 %, duels 50 %

Sat 19 Sep away vs Brighton · Set pieces + 6 corners, 5 conceded

Sat 19 Sep away vs Brighton · Own box + 10 shots against from inside the box (17 in total)

Sat 19 Sep away vs Brighton · Box pressure + 10/11 shots from inside the box

Sat 12 Sep away vs Sunderland · Threat by half + own threat 0.77 → 1.11 xG, opponents 0.23 → 1.57

Sat 12 Sep away vs Sunderland · Goalkeeper − 2 saves

Sat 12 Sep away vs Sunderland · Shooting accuracy − 5/11 shots on target (45 %)

Sat 12 Sep away vs Sunderland · Discipline + 2 cards, 11 fouls

Sat 12 Sep away vs Sunderland · Duels + 59 % of duels won (53/90)

Sat 12 Sep away vs Sunderland · Possession and duels − possession 57 %, duels 59 %

Sat 12 Sep away vs Sunderland · Own box − 7 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)

Sat 12 Sep away vs Sunderland · Box pressure + 8/11 shots from inside the box

Sat 10 Oct home vs Leeds · Finishing + 2 goals from 2.66 expected (-0.66)

Sat 10 Oct home vs Leeds · Threat by half + own threat 0.45 → 2.21 xG, opponents 0.44 → 0.30

Sat 10 Oct home vs Leeds · Goalkeeper + 4 saves

Sat 10 Oct home vs Leeds · Shooting accuracy − 6/13 shots on target (46 %)

Sat 10 Oct home vs Leeds · Defensive line + 4 offsides won

Sat 10 Oct home vs Leeds · Discipline − 1 cards, 12 fouls

Sat 10 Oct home vs Leeds · Duels + 55 % of duels won (55/100)

Sat 10 Oct home vs Leeds · Possession and duels − possession 58 %, duels 55 %

Sat 10 Oct home vs Leeds · Set pieces − 3 corners, 4 conceded

Sat 10 Oct home vs Leeds · Own box − 7 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)

Sat 10 Oct home vs Leeds · Box pressure + 8/13 shots from inside the box

A finding is one measured item from one match. A + mark supports the pattern, a − challenges it.

Suljetut hypoteesit (6)

What is closed is not deleted: it shows what we thought and why the view changed.

Hypothesis 1 · Possession and duels State · closed · 8 matches

Possession may not be matched by duel wins.

Supports

+ Sun 6.9. home vs Chelsea: possession 55 %, duels 49 %

+ Sun 18.10. away vs Nottingham Forest: possession 74 %, duels 49 %

+ Sat 24.10. home vs Everton: possession 58 %, duels 46 %

Challenges

− Fri 21.8. home vs Coventry: possession 64 %, duels 52 %

− Mon 31.8. away vs Aston Villa: possession 61 %, duels 57 %

− Sat 19.9. away vs Brighton: possession 60 %, duels 50 %

− Sat 12.9. away vs Sunderland: possession 57 %, duels 59 %

− Sat 10.10. home vs Leeds: possession 58 %, duels 55 %

Holds up across game states: in close periods 60 % possession, league 3/20 (12 periods). ● close period = margin of at most 1 goal for at least 75 % of the period's minutes · match stats by half

Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?

Hypothesis 2 · Own box State · closed · 8 matches

Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.

Supports

+ Sun 18.10. away vs Nottingham Forest: 8 shots against from inside the box (14 in total)

+ Sat 19.9. away vs Brighton: 10 shots against from inside the box (17 in total)

Challenges

− Sun 6.9. home vs Chelsea: 5 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)

− Fri 21.8. home vs Coventry: 1 shots against from inside the box (4 in total)

− Mon 31.8. away vs Aston Villa: 3 shots against from inside the box (7 in total)

− Sat 24.10. home vs Everton: 6 shots against from inside the box (8 in total)

− Sat 12.9. away vs Sunderland: 7 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)

− Sat 10.10. home vs Leeds: 7 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)

Last season 8.2 shots against in the match (no box split) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?

Hypothesis 3 · Goalkeeper State · closed · 8 matches

The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.

Supports

+ Sun 6.9. home vs Chelsea: 4 saves

+ Sat 10.10. home vs Leeds: 4 saves

Challenges

− Sun 18.10. away vs Nottingham Forest: 2 saves

− Fri 21.8. home vs Coventry: 1 saves

− Mon 31.8. away vs Aston Villa: 0 saves

− Sat 24.10. home vs Everton: 3 saves

− Sat 19.9. away vs Brighton: 2 saves

− Sat 12.9. away vs Sunderland: 2 saves

Last season 70 % of shots on target kept out (27 conceded / 90) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?

Hypothesis 4 · Discipline State · closed · 8 matches

The cost of indiscipline may rise.

Supports

+ Sun 6.9. home vs Chelsea: 2 cards, 13 fouls

+ Sat 12.9. away vs Sunderland: 2 cards, 11 fouls

Challenges

− Sun 18.10. away vs Nottingham Forest: 1 cards, 8 fouls

− Fri 21.8. home vs Coventry: 1 cards, 10 fouls

− Mon 31.8. away vs Aston Villa: 1 cards, 6 fouls

− Sat 24.10. home vs Everton: 1 cards, 11 fouls

− Sat 19.9. away vs Brighton: 1 cards, 11 fouls

− Sat 10.10. home vs Leeds: 1 cards, 12 fouls

Last season 1.3 cards and 10.3 fouls in the match ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?

Hypothesis 5 · Set pieces State · closed · 7 matches

Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.

Supports

+ Sat 19.9. away vs Brighton: 6 corners, 5 conceded

Challenges

− Sun 6.9. home vs Chelsea: 5 corners, 3 conceded

− Sun 18.10. away vs Nottingham Forest: 6 corners, 8 conceded

− Fri 21.8. home vs Coventry: 8 corners, 2 conceded

− Mon 31.8. away vs Aston Villa: 4 corners, 2 conceded

− Sat 24.10. home vs Everton: 12 corners, 3 conceded

− Sat 10.10. home vs Leeds: 3 corners, 4 conceded

Does not stand out in close periods: 2.5 corners per 45 min, league 9/20 (12 periods). The game state explains the number at least in part. ● close period = margin of at most 1 goal for at least 75 % of the period's minutes · match stats by half

Last season 5.7 corners in the match, 3.4 against ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?

Hypothesis 6 · Defensive line State · closed · 5 matches

The defence appears to hold a high line.

Supports

+ Sat 10.10. home vs Leeds: 4 offsides won

Challenges

− Sun 6.9. home vs Chelsea: 0 offsides won

− Fri 21.8. home vs Coventry: 0 offsides won

− Mon 31.8. away vs Aston Villa: 0 offsides won

− Sat 19.9. away vs Brighton: 0 offsides won

Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?

● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · match statistics

Measured numbers for the season

Style of play · season 2026-27

Line: deep line: the offside trap sprang only 9 times (18./20) ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · offsides and shot locations

Progression: progression mid-table: 38.9 passes per shot, possession 61 % ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · passes and shots

Set pieces: in attack 46 corners (league 4./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 31 corners against (18./20), no headed goals conceded ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · corners and goal types

Second half: output weighted to the second half (4+9 goals); own end tightens late (concessions 3+2); own threat rose in the second half in 5 of 8 matches (median +0.18 xG, league +0.15); opponents' threat rose in the second half in 6 of 8 matches (median +0.13 xG, league +0.15); first substitution on average at minute 58 ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · goals and substitutions by minute

When leading: kept the lead calmly: led at half-time 2 times, the opponent's threat stayed level and the lead held to a win (opponent xG in matches where they led 0.35 → 0.39) ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · threat by half

Game state: Leading 40 % of playing time, level 47 %, trailing 12 %. ● minutes from goal events · ○ interpretation

Threat by half, average of 8 matches (gold = Arsenal): own threat rose in the second half in 5 of 8 matches, median +0.18 xG (league +0.15). Two-half split, not a minute curve.

Tracking · season 2026-27

The duels carry: 52 % of duels won (381/731), league 3./20 ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · match statistics
We track whether the duel wins hold as opponents change their approach.

One round is not a trend, so each line says what we track next.

Last season's baseline

The baseline is the 2025-26 squad. Since then these players left: Leandro Trossard. ● season 2025-26 minutes · current squad

Analyst's take

Arsenal's league position and merit level landed close together

The team finished 1. The merit-level placing was 2. In defence the team conceded 27 goals while opponents' chance quality projected 33. In attack the team scored 71 goals when the quality of the chances predicted 67.

Analytical synthesis The results lean on finishing, not volume: 38 % of their shots on target went in but only 30 % of those faced, and one-goal matches land 14–5. The profile pays off now but is sensitive to finishing regression; shot counts will tell the direction before the scoreboard does. ○ interpretation · every number computed from season 2025-26 ●

Insights

Production is broad: even the top name (Bukayo Saka) made only 13 % of the team's goal involvements.

Jurriën Timber produced exceptionally for a defender: 9 goal involvements.

● season 2025-26 · goal involvements from full-season round data

● Arsenal settled without drama: 1. place matches 2. on merit.

● Opponents went direct against Arsenal, 2.2 percentage points below their usual level, but it did not pay: concessions stayed at −0.2. ▷ Corner routines and goalkeeper interference at set pieces stood out. (Total Football Analysis)

○ Arsenal: Midfield has raised its output, yet the team is still above expectation; does it correct

Attack: who produced the goals and assists

	Finishing goals vs xG	Chance creation assists vs xA
Defenders	−1.7	+4.9
Midfield	+3.7	+6.1
Forwards	+1.2	−1.7

Defence, team level

Chance prevention
little danger

+21.3

Shot-stopping
conceded vs chances

+3.9

Data profile · style, character, output ●

Style of play Deep line: the offside trap springs rarely (0.7/match). Keeps the ball: possession 56 % and 471 passes/match (league 4.). Watch whether the structure holds: Arsenal played the league's 3. most direct game, and in their most direct matches conceded no more; expected goals against was 0.16 lower. 58% of the goals came in the second half; the attack sharpens late. Rotation 2.5 line-up changes/round. ● measured · season 2025-26 · directness relative to opponent · half-time split from result data · rotation from round data · style from match stats (possession, passes, offsides)

Character Recovered 5 points from losing positions (3 matches) and dropped 2 points from leads (1 matches). One-goal matches 14–5. Home and away in balance: 47 / 38 points. ● season 2025-26 · HT–FT turnarounds from results data

Output Of shots on target, 38 % went in; of those faced, 30 %. Corners 5.7 vs 3.4 per match · 51 yellows over the season. ● season 2025-26 · shots on target, corners and cards from results data

Player readings · 1

● Viktor Gyökeres produced 67 % of the xGI of players classed as forwards in Arsenal's register (3 comparable players).

Signals style-of-play mechanism contract ● · established profile · set season 2026-27 ●

TEAM IDENTITY

Home ground

Emirates Stadium

Arsenal left Highbury on 7.5.2006 and moved to the Emirates Stadium after 93 years.

source: Arsenal FC (arsenal.com), Club moves to Emirates Stadium

TEAM MEMORY

29.05 · 2019

Eurooppa-liigan finaalitappio

Arsenal lose the Europa League final in Baku to Chelsea 1-4.

source: UEFA (uefa.com), Chelsea win the 2019 UEFA Europa League