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THE SQUAD
● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 7
NEXT CHECK
LAST MATCH
Bournemouth – Sunderland 2–0 (half-time 1–0) · goals: Evanilson, Tavernier
PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT
No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.
Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Bournemouth shoot this season 12.8 times per match (13th in the league, last season 13.8 and 5th in the league), Sunderland: 12.2 shots conceded (league 7.). The match's shot count tells which number held.
What happened: the pressure held: 29 shots (baseline 12.8, opponent concedes 12.2).
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Bournemouth score this season from 9.1 percent of their shots (11th in the league, last season 11.1 and 9th in the league), Sunderland: save percentage on shots on target 40.0 (league 20.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created.
What happened: goalkeeping and finishing beat the team: 2 goals from 4.40 expected (-2.40), 7 % of shots scored.
Third: Set pieces. Bournemouth win this season 4.7 corners per match (8th in the league, last season 5.6 and 6th in the league), Sunderland: 4.0 corners conceded (league 17.). The expectation is at least 4 corners.
What happened: expectation met: 5 corners (expected 4), 2 goals.
Fourth: The cost of indiscipline grows. 18 cards (league 2./20) and 75 fouls (6./20)
What happened: observation repeated, 3 cards, 16 fouls.
One more: The second half sharpens. Threat rose in the second half (xG 2nd – 1st half +1.19)
What happened: observation repeated, threat 1.95 → 2.45 xG.
Finally: Player pick. Marcus Tavernier is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 26.3 points on average in 6 matches, top three 3 times.
What happened: Player pick held: Marcus Tavernier was among his team's best in the match ratings (2/16) and produced 1+0. Match score 33, season average before the match 26.3.
And: Style of play. Progresses quickly: 30 passes per shot, the league's 2. most direct.
What happened: Style claim held: 19.8 passes per shot (league level 35.1).
From this match: 6/7 held
Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.
MANAGER'S CORNER · FANTASY
Last 5 matches: xGI 1.6, only 0 goals and assists ●
In 645 similar past cases, 61 % scored or assisted within the next 3 matches (all regular players 52 %) ●
xGI per 90 min: 0.82 in the last 3 matches, 0.33 before ●
Goals and assists Last 4 matches: goals 2 · assists 2 · xGI 2.6 ●
Last 4 matches: defensive actions 46 (11.5 / 90 min) · tackles 11 · interceptions, blocks and clearances 35 ●
Match rating 8.0 → 6.7 · xGI/90 0.70 → 0.60 ▷
TEAM BASELINE
Left after the 2025-26 season: Senesi (3288 min, goals+assists 0+6, now Tottenham); Álex Sánchez (2315 min, goals+assists 1+2, 2 % of the team's goals, no longer in a league squad).
New starters: António da Silva (7 starts, from outside the league).
The cost of indiscipline has grown: 2 cards, 11 fouls (Sun 23.8. away vs Manchester City).
Last quarter hour · Bournemouth dropped 7 points after the 75th minute.
The cost of indiscipline may rise.
+ Sun 23.8. away vs Manchester City: 2 cards, 11 fouls
− Sun 20.9. home vs Liverpool: 1 cards, 11 fouls
Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?
Last season 2.4 cards and 12.0 fouls in the match
Hypothesis 2 · Finishing State · strengthening · 5 matches
Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.
Supports
+ Sun 20.9. home vs Liverpool: 0 goals from 0.79 expected (-0.79)
+ Sun 18.10. home vs Sunderland: 2 goals from 4.40 expected (-2.40)
+ Sat 29.8. home vs Everton: 1 goals from 2.14 expected (-1.14)
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Chelsea: 1 goals from 1.52 expected (-0.52)
Challenges
− Sat 5.9. away vs Newcastle: 2 goals from 1.37 expected (+0.63)
Weakens in close periods: 1.6 goals below expected (xG), league 14/20 (11 periods). Part of the number comes from the game state.
Last season 1.5 goals and 13.8 shots in the match, 11 % of shots scored
Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?
Hypothesis 3 · Box pressure State · strengthening · 4 matches
The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.
Supports
+ Sun 18.10. home vs Sunderland: 21/29 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Newcastle: 9/17 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 29.8. home vs Everton: 13/17 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 12.9. home vs Brentford: 10/20 shots from inside the box
Challenges
No counter-evidence yet.
Does not stand out in close periods: 4.4 shots from inside the box per 45 min, league 12/20 (11 periods). The game state explains the number at least in part.
Last season 13.8 shots in the match (no box split from last season, so the comparison is shot count)
Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?
Hypothesis 4 · Threat by half State · strengthening · 4 matches
The threat appears weighted towards the second half.
Supports
+ Sun 20.9. home vs Liverpool: own threat 0.15 → 0.65 xG, opponents 0.49 → 1.16
+ Sun 18.10. home vs Sunderland: own threat 1.95 → 2.45 xG, opponents 0.07 → 0.06
+ Sat 29.8. home vs Everton: own threat 0.48 → 1.66 xG, opponents 1.06 → 0.66
+ Sat 12.9. home vs Brentford: own threat 0.67 → 1.08 xG, opponents 0.33 → 0.17
Challenges
No counter-evidence yet.
Last season 55 % of goals came in the second half (32 / 58)
Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?
Hypothesis 5 · Shooting accuracy State · strengthening · 7 matches
Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.
Supports
+ Sun 20.9. home vs Liverpool: 2/9 shots on target (22 %)
+ Sun 18.10. home vs Sunderland: 6/29 shots on target (21 %)
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Newcastle: 5/17 shots on target (29 %)
+ Sat 29.8. home vs Everton: 5/17 shots on target (29 %)
Challenges
− Sun 23.8. away vs Manchester City: 4/5 shots on target (80 %)
− Sat 12.9. home vs Brentford: 10/20 shots on target (50 %)
− Sat 10.10. away vs Chelsea: 4/9 shots on target (44 %)
Last season 34 % of shots on target (178 / 525)
Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?
Sun 23 Aug away vs Manchester City · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Sun 23 Aug away vs Manchester City · Shooting accuracy − 4/5 shots on target (80 %)
Sun 23 Aug away vs Manchester City · Discipline + 2 cards, 11 fouls
Sun 23 Aug away vs Manchester City · Duels − 46 % of duels won (39/85)
Sun 23 Aug away vs Manchester City · Possession and duels − possession 34 %, duels 46 %
Sun 23 Aug away vs Manchester City · Set pieces − 3 corners, 8 conceded
Sun 23 Aug away vs Manchester City · Own box + 11 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
Sun 20 Sep home vs Liverpool · Finishing + 0 goals from 0.79 expected (-0.79)
Sun 20 Sep home vs Liverpool · Threat by half + own threat 0.15 → 0.65 xG, opponents 0.49 → 1.16
Sun 20 Sep home vs Liverpool · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Sun 20 Sep home vs Liverpool · Shooting accuracy + 2/9 shots on target (22 %)
Sun 20 Sep home vs Liverpool · Discipline − 1 cards, 11 fouls
Sun 20 Sep home vs Liverpool · Duels − 44 % of duels won (40/91)
Sun 20 Sep home vs Liverpool · Possession and duels − possession 46 %, duels 44 %
Sun 20 Sep home vs Liverpool · Own box − 7 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
Sun 18 Oct home vs Sunderland · Finishing + 2 goals from 4.40 expected (-2.40)
Sun 18 Oct home vs Sunderland · Threat by half + own threat 1.95 → 2.45 xG, opponents 0.07 → 0.06
Sun 18 Oct home vs Sunderland · Goalkeeper − 0 saves
Sun 18 Oct home vs Sunderland · Shooting accuracy + 6/29 shots on target (21 %)
Sun 18 Oct home vs Sunderland · Discipline + 3 cards, 16 fouls
Sun 18 Oct home vs Sunderland · Duels − 50 % of duels won (46/92)
Sun 18 Oct home vs Sunderland · Possession and duels − possession 65 %, duels 50 %
Sun 18 Oct home vs Sunderland · Set pieces − 5 corners, 3 conceded
Sun 18 Oct home vs Sunderland · Own box − 2 shots against from inside the box (3 in total)
Sun 18 Oct home vs Sunderland · Box pressure + 21/29 shots from inside the box
Sat 5 Sep away vs Newcastle · Finishing − 2 goals from 1.37 expected (+0.63)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Newcastle · Goalkeeper − 0 saves
Sat 5 Sep away vs Newcastle · Shooting accuracy + 5/17 shots on target (29 %)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Newcastle · Discipline + 3 cards, 17 fouls
Sat 5 Sep away vs Newcastle · Duels + 53 % of duels won (61/116)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Newcastle · Possession and duels − possession 42 %, duels 53 %
Sat 5 Sep away vs Newcastle · Set pieces − 3 corners, 4 conceded
Sat 5 Sep away vs Newcastle · Own box − 5 shots against from inside the box (8 in total)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Newcastle · Box pressure + 9/17 shots from inside the box
Sat 29 Aug home vs Everton · Finishing + 1 goals from 2.14 expected (-1.14)
Sat 29 Aug home vs Everton · Threat by half + own threat 0.48 → 1.66 xG, opponents 1.06 → 0.66
Sat 29 Aug home vs Everton · Goalkeeper + 5 saves
Sat 29 Aug home vs Everton · Shooting accuracy + 5/17 shots on target (29 %)
Sat 29 Aug home vs Everton · Discipline + 3 cards, 11 fouls
Sat 29 Aug home vs Everton · Duels + 55 % of duels won (57/103)
Sat 29 Aug home vs Everton · Possession and duels − possession 58 %, duels 55 %
Sat 29 Aug home vs Everton · Set pieces − 10 corners, 7 conceded
Sat 29 Aug home vs Everton · Own box − 7 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
Sat 29 Aug home vs Everton · Box pressure + 13/17 shots from inside the box
Sat 12 Sep home vs Brentford · Threat by half + own threat 0.67 → 1.08 xG, opponents 0.33 → 0.17
Sat 12 Sep home vs Brentford · Goalkeeper − 0 saves
Sat 12 Sep home vs Brentford · Shooting accuracy − 10/20 shots on target (50 %)
Sat 12 Sep home vs Brentford · Discipline + 5 cards, 10 fouls
Sat 12 Sep home vs Brentford · Duels − 48 % of duels won (58/122)
Sat 12 Sep home vs Brentford · Possession and duels + possession 57 %, duels 48 %
Sat 12 Sep home vs Brentford · Own box − 6 shots against from inside the box (8 in total)
Sat 12 Sep home vs Brentford · Box pressure + 10/20 shots from inside the box
Sat 10 Oct away vs Chelsea · Finishing + 1 goals from 1.52 expected (-0.52)
Sat 10 Oct away vs Chelsea · Goalkeeper − 1 saves
Sat 10 Oct away vs Chelsea · Shooting accuracy − 4/9 shots on target (44 %)
Sat 10 Oct away vs Chelsea · Discipline + 4 cards, 15 fouls
Sat 10 Oct away vs Chelsea · Duels − 45 % of duels won (47/104)
Sat 10 Oct away vs Chelsea · Possession and duels + possession 60 %, duels 45 %
Sat 10 Oct away vs Chelsea · Set pieces − 7 corners, 1 conceded
Sat 10 Oct away vs Chelsea · Own box − 6 shots against from inside the box (10 in total)
Hypothesis 1 · Duels State · closed · 7 matches
Duels appear to carry this team's game.
Supports
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Newcastle: 53 % of duels won (61/116)
+ Sat 29.8. home vs Everton: 55 % of duels won (57/103)
Challenges
− Sun 23.8. away vs Manchester City: 46 % of duels won (39/85)
− Sun 20.9. home vs Liverpool: 44 % of duels won (40/91)
− Sun 18.10. home vs Sunderland: 50 % of duels won (46/92)
− Sat 12.9. home vs Brentford: 48 % of duels won (58/122)
− Sat 10.10. away vs Chelsea: 45 % of duels won (47/104)
Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?
Hypothesis 2 · Possession and duels State · closed · 7 matches
Possession may not be matched by duel wins.
Supports
+ Sat 12.9. home vs Brentford: possession 57 %, duels 48 %
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Chelsea: possession 60 %, duels 45 %
Challenges
− Sun 23.8. away vs Manchester City: possession 34 %, duels 46 %
− Sun 20.9. home vs Liverpool: possession 46 %, duels 44 %
− Sun 18.10. home vs Sunderland: possession 65 %, duels 50 %
− Sat 5.9. away vs Newcastle: possession 42 %, duels 53 %
− Sat 29.8. home vs Everton: possession 58 %, duels 55 %
Does not stand out in close periods: 49 % possession, league 12/20 (11 periods). The game state explains the number at least in part.
Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?
Hypothesis 3 · Goalkeeper State · closed · 7 matches
The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.
Supports
+ Sun 23.8. away vs Manchester City: 4 saves
+ Sat 29.8. home vs Everton: 5 saves
Challenges
− Sun 20.9. home vs Liverpool: 2 saves
− Sun 18.10. home vs Sunderland: 0 saves
− Sat 5.9. away vs Newcastle: 0 saves
− Sat 12.9. home vs Brentford: 0 saves
− Sat 10.10. away vs Chelsea: 1 saves
Last season 67 % of shots on target kept out (54 conceded / 162)
Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?
Hypothesis 4 · Own box State · closed · 7 matches
Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.
Supports
+ Sun 23.8. away vs Manchester City: 11 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
Challenges
− Sun 20.9. home vs Liverpool: 7 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
− Sun 18.10. home vs Sunderland: 2 shots against from inside the box (3 in total)
− Sat 5.9. away vs Newcastle: 5 shots against from inside the box (8 in total)
− Sat 29.8. home vs Everton: 7 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
− Sat 12.9. home vs Brentford: 6 shots against from inside the box (8 in total)
− Sat 10.10. away vs Chelsea: 6 shots against from inside the box (10 in total)
Last season 12.6 shots against in the match (no box split)
Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?
Hypothesis 5 · Set pieces State · closed · 5 matches
Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.
Supports
No longer backed by the evidence.
Challenges
− Sun 23.8. away vs Manchester City: 3 corners, 8 conceded
− Sun 18.10. home vs Sunderland: 5 corners, 3 conceded
− Sat 5.9. away vs Newcastle: 3 corners, 4 conceded
− Sat 29.8. home vs Everton: 10 corners, 7 conceded
− Sat 10.10. away vs Chelsea: 7 corners, 1 conceded
Last season 5.6 corners in the match, 5.3 against
Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?
Line: line mid-level: 10 offsides drawn
Progression: progression mid-table: 28.7 passes per shot, possession 52 %
Set pieces: in attack 33 corners (league 11./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 27 corners against (19./20), no headed goals conceded
Second half: output weighted to the opening half (6+3 goals); own end leaks late (concessions 4+9); own threat rose in the second half in 5 of 7 matches (median +0.50 xG, league +0.15); opponents' threat rose in the second half in 4 of 7 matches (median +0.16 xG, league +0.15); first substitution on average at minute 67
When leading: lead held 1/4: led at half-time 4 times, and 3 of those leads did not hold to a win (opponent xG in matches where they led 1.76 → 3.16)
Game state: Leading 44 % of playing time, level 37 %, trailing 20 %. League rank 3 for time leading, so the season numbers lean towards play with a lead.
Attacking inefficiency: 9 goals from 12.60 expected (xG), a gap of -3.60, league 18./20
We track whether the finishing corrects or the deficit continues: the same metric is read after every round.
Weakens in close periods: 1.6 goals below expected (xG), league 14/20 (11 periods). Part of the number comes from the game state.
The cost of indiscipline grows: 21 cards (league 2./20) and 91 fouls (5./20)
We track whether cards accumulate into suspensions and fouls into set pieces for opponents.
| Finishing goals vs xG | Chance creation assists vs xA | |
| Defenders | −0.8 | +5.0 |
| Midfield | −3.6 | −6.6 |
| Forwards | −0.5 | +1.1 |
TEAM IDENTITY
Home ground
The Vitality Stadium is the Premier League's smallest at about 11.300 seats; Bournemouth's home since 1910.
source: Football Ground Guide, Vitality StadiumTEAM MEMORY
Bournemouth seal their first promotion to the Premier League by beating Bolton 3-0. The Championship title is decided on the final day, 2.5.
source: AFC Bournemouth (afcb.co.uk), AFC Bournemouth 3-0 Bolton Wanderers 27.4.2015