Signals ⚽ · My team

MY CLUB

Brentford

THE SQUAD

GKKelleher

DEFKayode

DEFAjer

DEFBerg

MIDLewis-Potter

MIDYarmolyuk

MIDJanelt

MIDO.Dango

MIDJensen

MIDAnthony

FWDThiago

● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 7

fitness concernformno measured deviation

Janelt630 min · 7/7 starts · suspended (0 %)

Bench

FWDWilsonMIDCarvalhoDEFHenry

NEXT CHECK

LAST MATCH

Brentford – Liverpool 1–2 (half-time 1–0) · goals: Lewis-Potter ● result: round data

Sat 17 Oct

PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT

No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.

Change alert

Brentford played differently in round 7 (vs Liverpool) than earlier this season: 3 metric families at the season's lowest level, and 4/7 of the preview claims did not hold. ● round data

Metric	In the match	Adjusted
possession	40 %previously 40–53 %, shared extreme	about 45 % · normal
second-half threat change	−0.20 xGpreviously −0.16 … +1.87	not adjusted
Kevin Schade, match-score points	3previously 4–49	not adjusted

Adjusted for the opponent, 2/3 metric families are still at a season extreme: the opponent explains part of it. ● match stats · the opponent's earlier matches

Lineup and slots

4 changes to the season's most common starting XI: out Kevin Schade, Mamadou Sangaré, Nathan Collins, Mikkel Damsgaard; in Van den Berg, Y. Yarmolyuk, Mathias Jensen, Dango Ouattara. Announced formation 4-2-3-1 as usual, but the team sheet does not show the in-game shape. Defensive line: Van den Berg centre-left; Nathan Collins did not start. In front of the defence: Y. Yarmolyuk on the right; Mamadou Sangaré did not start. ● starting line-ups and team-sheet positions

○ When the alert fires while the announced shape stays the same, the change may be in the in-game shape or in roles that the announcement does not show. The next match will show whether the profile returns to the season level.

Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Brentford shoot this season 15.8 times per match (5th in the league, last season 10.7 and 16th in the league), Liverpool: 12.2 shots conceded (league 8.). The match's shot count tells which number held. ● season 2026-27 · 6 matches before the round · last season for comparison
What happened: the defence won: 10 shots (baseline 15.8, opponent concedes 12.2). ● round data
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Brentford score this season from 12.6 percent of their shots (8th in the league, last season 13.6 and 1st in the league), Liverpool: save percentage on shots on target 68.2 (league 8.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created. ●
What happened: the finishing held: 1 goals from 0.90 expected (+0.10), 10 % of shots scored. ●
Third: Set pieces. Brentford win this season 4.0 corners per match (16th in the league, last season 4.8 and 13th in the league), Liverpool: 4.7 corners conceded (league 10.). The expectation is at least 4 corners. ●
What happened: fell short of expectation: 3 corners (expected 4), 1 goals. ●
Fourth: Goalkeeper level on show. 22 saves (league 3./20) against 1.34 xG ● season 2026-27 · from 6 match(es) · match statistics
What happened: observation did not repeat, 3 saves. ●
One more: Box pressure delivers. 72 shots from inside the box (league 1./20) and 12 goals, 95 shots in total (5./20) ●
What happened: observation repeated, 10 shots from the box, 1 goals, 21 shots against. ●
Finally: Player pick. Kevin Schade is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 23.7 points on average in 6 matches, top three 2 times. ● season 2026-27 · match ratings before the round
What happened: Player pick did not hold: Kevin Schade ranked 12/16 in his team's match ratings. Match score 3, season average before the match 23.7. ●
And: Style of play. Low block: 36 % of shots conceded from outside the box, forces opponents to shoot from range. ● season 2025-26 · from match statistics
What happened: Style claim held: 52 % of shots conceded from outside the box (league level 32 %). ●

From this match: 3/7 held

Threat by half (expected goals, gold = Brentford): shots 6/7 and 4/14 Two-half split, not a minute-by-minute curve.

Events by minute: Brentford on top, Liverpool below, 3 goals and 9 cards. Vertical lines at minutes 45 and 90. ● match events

Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.

This match's verdict on the Matches list →

NEXT MATCH

Hull City – Brentford

Sun 25.10. · 16:00 · ○ fixture info, as of 25.10.

This match's preview on the Matches list →

MATCH WATCHLIST

Each item is a claim, and the verdict appears beneath it after the match.

Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Brentford shoot this season 15.0 times per match (6th in the league, last season 10.7 and 16th in the league), Hull City: 14.6 shots conceded (league 13.). The match's shot count tells which number held. ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · last season for comparison
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Brentford score this season from 12.4 percent of their shots (7th in the league, last season 13.6 and 1st in the league), Hull City: save percentage on shots on target 79.4 (league 2.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created. ●
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.
Third: Set pieces. Brentford win this season 3.9 corners per match (15th in the league, last season 4.8 and 13th in the league), Hull City: 6.6 corners conceded (league 1.). The expectation is at least 4 corners. ●
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.
Fourth: Box pressure delivers. 82 shots from inside the box (league 1./20) and 13 goals, 105 shots in total (6./20) ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · match statistics
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.
One more: The cost of indiscipline grows. 20 cards (league 3./20) and 103 fouls (1./20) ●
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.
Finally: Player pick. Kevin Schade is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 20.7 points on average in 7 matches, top three 2 times. ● season 2026-27 · match ratings before the round
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.
And: Style of play. Progresses quickly: 24 passes per shot, the league's 2. most direct. ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · match statistics
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.

Availability before the match

Out in the registry: Vitaly Janelt, Yehor Yarmoliuk. ▷

Doubtful in the registry: Jannik Schuster 75 %. ▷

Baseline per match from last season: upper bar Brentford, lower Hull City, vertical line the league level. ● measured 2025-26

Preview of both teams on the Matches list →

HOW TO WATCH THIS MATCH

Style of play: Low block: 36 % of shots conceded from outside the box, forces opponents to shoot from range. Deep line: the offside trap springs rarely (1.0/match). Scoring splits evenly across the halves (56 % in the second). ● season 2025-26 · half-time split from result data · style from match stats (possession, passes, offsides)

Brentford: Thiago: form turned ● season 2025-26

Player pick: Mathias Jensen: involvements exceeded output; the rise has backing. ● season 2025-26

THE OPPONENT IN BRIEF

Hull CityPromoted side: there is no 2025-26 Premier League measurement data and we do not guess; readings start from the opening rounds' data.

MANAGER'S CORNER · FANTASY

Player card

Kevin Schade

Brentford · midfielder

Downward trend expected

Last 5 matches: 4 goals and assists from only 1.5 xGI ●

In 576 similar past cases, the scoring pace slowed for 86 % within the next 3 matches (when xGI backed the pace, 77 %) ●

Goals and assists Last 4 matches: goals 2 · assists 2 · xGI 1.3 ●

xGI per round ●

Match rating 1–10 ▷ 6.5

Next matches ●HULawayNFOhome

Compared with 105 midfielders, at least 270 min ●

xG / 90 min0.32

xA / 90 min0.06

Match rating (avg) ▷7.2

Playing time86 %

Season 2026-27, rounds 1–7543 min · 6/7 starts · 3 goals, 2 assists · xGI 2.3 ● measured

▷ in 15.1 % of teams · price 6.2

Player card

Keane Lewis-Potter

Brentford · midfielder

Rebound expected

xGI per 90 min: 0.17 in the last 3 matches, 0.51 before ●

xGI per round ●

Next matches ●HULaway

Season 2026-27, rounds 1–7548 min · 7/7 starts · 2 goals, 1 assists · xGI 2.3 ● measured

▷ in 1.9 % of teams · price 5.5

Player card

Jannik Schuster

Brentford · defender

Bench risk

Not in the squad in round 7 ●

xGI per round ●

Next matches ●HULaway

Season 2026-27, rounds 1–7298 min · 3/7 starts · 0 goals, 1 assists · xGI 0.6 ● measured

▷ in 0.4 % of teams · price 4.5

Player card

Caoimhín Kelleher

Brentford · goalkeeper

Top shot-stopping

Last 4 matches: saves 18 (4.5 / match) · clean sheets 1 · conceded 6 ●

xGI per round ●

Next matches ●HULaway

Season 2026-27, rounds 1–7630 min · 7/7 starts · 0 goals, 0 assists · xGI 0.0 ● measured

▷ in 6.2 % of teams · price 5.0

Every player in the league, form and risks → All players

TEAM BASELINE

Brentford

now 6th in the table · 10 pts ●

last season 9th · 9th on merit

↗

Playing identity now Brentford progress quickly towards goal; seal their box with a low block. Last season: seal their box with a low block; defend deep. The latest match departed from this profile (change alert below). ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches · match stats: possession, passes, shots, offsides

What has changed?

Change alert

Brentford played differently in round 7 (vs Liverpool) than earlier this season: 3 metric families at the season's lowest level, and 4/7 of the preview claims did not hold. ● round data

Metric	In the match	Adjusted
possession	40 %previously 40–53 %, shared extreme	about 45 % · normal
second-half threat change	−0.20 xGpreviously −0.16 … +1.87	not adjusted
Kevin Schade, match-score points	3previously 4–49	not adjusted

Adjusted for the opponent, 2/3 metric families are still at a season extreme: the opponent explains part of it. ● match stats · the opponent's earlier matches

Lineup and slots

Squad after the summer

Left after the 2025-26 season: Jordan Henderson (1911 min, goals+assists 1+3, 2 % of the team's goals, now Chelsea).

New starters: Jaidon Anthony (5 starts, came from Burnley); Mamadou Sangaré (4 starts, from outside the league); Jannik Schuster (3 starts, from outside the league); El Diouf (1 start, came from West Ham).

● season 2025-26 minutes, goals and assists · current squad and starts

The team reaches the box: 18/22 shots from inside the box (Sun 30.8. away vs Leeds).

Last quarter hour · Brentford dropped 4 points after the 75th minute. ● match events 2026-27 · 75 matches

Signal hypothesis · strengthening · 5 matches

The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.

+ Sun 30.8. away vs Leeds: 18/22 shots from inside the box

Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?

Evidence in detail

Holds up across game states: in close periods 5.2 shots from inside the box per 45 min, league 4/20 (12 periods). ● close period = margin of at most 1 goal for at least 75 % of the period's minutes · match stats by half

Last season 10.7 shots in the match (no box split from last season, so the comparison is shot count) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Other tracked hypotheses (6)

Hypothesis 2 · Own box State · strengthening · 7 matches

Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.

Supports

+ Fri 18.9. home vs Chelsea: 8 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)

+ Sat 5.9. home vs Sunderland: 10 shots against from inside the box (14 in total)

+ Sat 17.10. home vs Liverpool: 10 shots against from inside the box (21 in total)

+ Sat 12.9. away vs Bournemouth: 10 shots against from inside the box (20 in total)

+ Sat 10.10. away vs Aston Villa: 15 shots against from inside the box (20 in total)

Challenges

− Sun 30.8. away vs Leeds: 6 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)

− Sat 22.8. home vs Tottenham: 4 shots against from inside the box (9 in total)

Last season 13.3 shots against in the match (no box split) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?

Hypothesis 3 · Discipline State · strengthening · 7 matches

The cost of indiscipline may rise.

Supports

+ Sun 30.8. away vs Leeds: 4 cards, 13 fouls

+ Fri 18.9. home vs Chelsea: 2 cards, 10 fouls

+ Sat 5.9. home vs Sunderland: 3 cards, 19 fouls

+ Sat 17.10. home vs Liverpool: 4 cards, 7 fouls

+ Sat 10.10. away vs Aston Villa: 5 cards, 24 fouls

Challenges

− Sat 22.8. home vs Tottenham: 1 cards, 17 fouls

− Sat 12.9. away vs Bournemouth: 1 cards, 13 fouls

Last season 1.8 cards and 10.3 fouls in the match ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?

Hypothesis 4 · Shooting accuracy State · strengthening · 7 matches

Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.

Supports

+ Sun 30.8. away vs Leeds: 5/22 shots on target (23 %)

+ Sat 5.9. home vs Sunderland: 2/12 shots on target (17 %)

+ Sat 17.10. home vs Liverpool: 2/10 shots on target (20 %)

+ Sat 12.9. away vs Bournemouth: 2/8 shots on target (25 %)

+ Sat 10.10. away vs Aston Villa: 4/14 shots on target (29 %)

Challenges

− Fri 18.9. home vs Chelsea: 6/13 shots on target (46 %)

− Sat 22.8. home vs Tottenham: 8/26 shots on target (31 %)

Weakens in close periods: 27 % of shots on target, league 13/20 (12 periods). Part of the number comes from the game state. ● close period = margin of at most 1 goal for at least 75 % of the period's minutes · match stats by half

Last season 36 % of shots on target (147 / 405) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?

Hypothesis 5 · Threat by half State · strengthening · 5 matches

The threat appears weighted towards the second half.

Supports

+ Sun 30.8. away vs Leeds: own threat 0.55 → 1.01 xG, opponents 0.04 → 1.42

+ Fri 18.9. home vs Chelsea: own threat 0.39 → 2.26 xG, opponents 0.39 → 0.44

+ Sat 5.9. home vs Sunderland: own threat 0.35 → 0.85 xG, opponents 0.35 → 1.36

+ Sat 22.8. home vs Tottenham: own threat 1.48 → 2.48 xG, opponents 0.09 → 0.38

Challenges

− Sat 12.9. away vs Bournemouth: own threat 0.33 → 0.17 xG, opponents 0.67 → 1.08

Last season 56 % of goals came in the second half (31 / 55) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?

Hypothesis 6 · Finishing State · mixed · 4 matches

Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.

Supports

+ Sun 30.8. away vs Leeds: 1 goals from 1.56 expected (-0.56)

+ Sat 22.8. home vs Tottenham: 3 goals from 3.96 expected (-0.96)

Challenges

− Sat 12.9. away vs Bournemouth: 2 goals from 0.50 expected (+1.50)

− Sat 10.10. away vs Aston Villa: 2 goals from 1.31 expected (+0.69)

Last season 1.4 goals and 10.7 shots in the match, 14 % of shots scored ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?

Hypothesis 7 · Defensive line State · new · 2 matches

The defence appears to hold a high line.

Supports

+ Sat 5.9. home vs Sunderland: 3 offsides won

+ Sat 12.9. away vs Bournemouth: 3 offsides won

Challenges

No counter-evidence yet.

Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?

Show 63 findings

Sun 30 Aug away vs Leeds · Finishing + 1 goals from 1.56 expected (-0.56)

Sun 30 Aug away vs Leeds · Threat by half + own threat 0.55 → 1.01 xG, opponents 0.04 → 1.42

Sun 30 Aug away vs Leeds · Goalkeeper − 1 saves

Sun 30 Aug away vs Leeds · Shooting accuracy + 5/22 shots on target (23 %)

Sun 30 Aug away vs Leeds · Discipline + 4 cards, 13 fouls

Sun 30 Aug away vs Leeds · Duels − 44 % of duels won (51/115)

Sun 30 Aug away vs Leeds · Possession and duels + possession 53 %, duels 44 %

Sun 30 Aug away vs Leeds · Set pieces − 6 corners, 5 conceded

Sun 30 Aug away vs Leeds · Own box − 6 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)

Sun 30 Aug away vs Leeds · Box pressure + 18/22 shots from inside the box

Fri 18 Sep home vs Chelsea · Threat by half + own threat 0.39 → 2.26 xG, opponents 0.39 → 0.44

Fri 18 Sep home vs Chelsea · Goalkeeper − 2 saves

Fri 18 Sep home vs Chelsea · Shooting accuracy − 6/13 shots on target (46 %)

Fri 18 Sep home vs Chelsea · Discipline + 2 cards, 10 fouls

Fri 18 Sep home vs Chelsea · Duels − 43 % of duels won (41/96)

Fri 18 Sep home vs Chelsea · Possession and duels − possession 40 %, duels 43 %

Fri 18 Sep home vs Chelsea · Set pieces − 4 corners, 12 conceded

Fri 18 Sep home vs Chelsea · Own box + 8 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)

Fri 18 Sep home vs Chelsea · Box pressure + 9/13 shots from inside the box

Sat 5 Sep home vs Sunderland · Threat by half + own threat 0.35 → 0.85 xG, opponents 0.35 → 1.36

Sat 5 Sep home vs Sunderland · Goalkeeper − 2 saves

Sat 5 Sep home vs Sunderland · Shooting accuracy + 2/12 shots on target (17 %)

Sat 5 Sep home vs Sunderland · Defensive line + 3 offsides won

Sat 5 Sep home vs Sunderland · Discipline + 3 cards, 19 fouls

Sat 5 Sep home vs Sunderland · Duels − 41 % of duels won (50/123)

Sat 5 Sep home vs Sunderland · Possession and duels − possession 49 %, duels 41 %

Sat 5 Sep home vs Sunderland · Set pieces − 4 corners, 3 conceded

Sat 5 Sep home vs Sunderland · Own box + 10 shots against from inside the box (14 in total)

Sat 22 Aug home vs Tottenham · Finishing + 3 goals from 3.96 expected (-0.96)

Sat 22 Aug home vs Tottenham · Threat by half + own threat 1.48 → 2.48 xG, opponents 0.09 → 0.38

Sat 22 Aug home vs Tottenham · Goalkeeper + 4 saves

Sat 22 Aug home vs Tottenham · Shooting accuracy − 8/26 shots on target (31 %)

Sat 22 Aug home vs Tottenham · Discipline − 1 cards, 17 fouls

Sat 22 Aug home vs Tottenham · Duels + 52 % of duels won (61/118)

Sat 22 Aug home vs Tottenham · Possession and duels − possession 41 %, duels 52 %

Sat 22 Aug home vs Tottenham · Set pieces − 7 corners, 3 conceded

Sat 22 Aug home vs Tottenham · Own box − 4 shots against from inside the box (9 in total)

Sat 22 Aug home vs Tottenham · Box pressure + 20/26 shots from inside the box

Sat 17 Oct home vs Liverpool · Goalkeeper − 3 saves

Sat 17 Oct home vs Liverpool · Shooting accuracy + 2/10 shots on target (20 %)

Sat 17 Oct home vs Liverpool · Discipline + 4 cards, 7 fouls

Sat 17 Oct home vs Liverpool · Duels − 46 % of duels won (49/106)

Sat 17 Oct home vs Liverpool · Possession and duels − possession 40 %, duels 46 %

Sat 17 Oct home vs Liverpool · Set pieces − 3 corners, 9 conceded

Sat 17 Oct home vs Liverpool · Own box + 10 shots against from inside the box (21 in total)

Sat 17 Oct home vs Liverpool · Box pressure + 10/10 shots from inside the box

Sat 12 Sep away vs Bournemouth · Finishing − 2 goals from 0.50 expected (+1.50)

Sat 12 Sep away vs Bournemouth · Threat by half − own threat 0.33 → 0.17 xG, opponents 0.67 → 1.08

Sat 12 Sep away vs Bournemouth · Goalkeeper + 8 saves

Sat 12 Sep away vs Bournemouth · Shooting accuracy + 2/8 shots on target (25 %)

Sat 12 Sep away vs Bournemouth · Defensive line + 3 offsides won

Sat 12 Sep away vs Bournemouth · Discipline − 1 cards, 13 fouls

Sat 12 Sep away vs Bournemouth · Duels + 52 % of duels won (64/122)

Sat 12 Sep away vs Bournemouth · Possession and duels − possession 43 %, duels 52 %

Sat 12 Sep away vs Bournemouth · Own box + 10 shots against from inside the box (20 in total)

Sat 10 Oct away vs Aston Villa · Finishing − 2 goals from 1.31 expected (+0.69)

Sat 10 Oct away vs Aston Villa · Goalkeeper + 5 saves

Sat 10 Oct away vs Aston Villa · Shooting accuracy + 4/14 shots on target (29 %)

Sat 10 Oct away vs Aston Villa · Discipline + 5 cards, 24 fouls

Sat 10 Oct away vs Aston Villa · Duels − 46 % of duels won (51/111)

Sat 10 Oct away vs Aston Villa · Possession and duels − possession 48 %, duels 46 %

Sat 10 Oct away vs Aston Villa · Own box + 15 shots against from inside the box (20 in total)

Sat 10 Oct away vs Aston Villa · Box pressure + 12/14 shots from inside the box

A finding is one measured item from one match. A + mark supports the pattern, a − challenges it.

Suljetut hypoteesit (4)

What is closed is not deleted: it shows what we thought and why the view changed.

Hypothesis 1 · Goalkeeper State · closed · 7 matches

The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.

Supports

+ Sat 22.8. home vs Tottenham: 4 saves

+ Sat 12.9. away vs Bournemouth: 8 saves

+ Sat 10.10. away vs Aston Villa: 5 saves

Challenges

− Sun 30.8. away vs Leeds: 1 saves

− Fri 18.9. home vs Chelsea: 2 saves

− Sat 5.9. home vs Sunderland: 2 saves

− Sat 17.10. home vs Liverpool: 3 saves

Last season 68 % of shots on target kept out (52 conceded / 162) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?

Hypothesis 2 · Duels State · closed · 7 matches

Duels appear to carry this team's game.

Supports

+ Sat 22.8. home vs Tottenham: 52 % of duels won (61/118)

+ Sat 12.9. away vs Bournemouth: 52 % of duels won (64/122)

Challenges

− Sun 30.8. away vs Leeds: 44 % of duels won (51/115)

− Fri 18.9. home vs Chelsea: 43 % of duels won (41/96)

− Sat 5.9. home vs Sunderland: 41 % of duels won (50/123)

− Sat 17.10. home vs Liverpool: 46 % of duels won (49/106)

− Sat 10.10. away vs Aston Villa: 46 % of duels won (51/111)

Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?

Hypothesis 3 · Possession and duels State · closed · 7 matches

Possession may not be matched by duel wins.

Supports

+ Sun 30.8. away vs Leeds: possession 53 %, duels 44 %

Challenges

− Fri 18.9. home vs Chelsea: possession 40 %, duels 43 %

− Sat 5.9. home vs Sunderland: possession 49 %, duels 41 %

− Sat 22.8. home vs Tottenham: possession 41 %, duels 52 %

− Sat 17.10. home vs Liverpool: possession 40 %, duels 46 %

− Sat 12.9. away vs Bournemouth: possession 43 %, duels 52 %

− Sat 10.10. away vs Aston Villa: possession 48 %, duels 46 %

Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?

Hypothesis 4 · Set pieces State · closed · 5 matches

Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.

Supports

No longer backed by the evidence.

Challenges

− Sun 30.8. away vs Leeds: 6 corners, 5 conceded

− Fri 18.9. home vs Chelsea: 4 corners, 12 conceded

− Sat 5.9. home vs Sunderland: 4 corners, 3 conceded

− Sat 22.8. home vs Tottenham: 7 corners, 3 conceded

− Sat 17.10. home vs Liverpool: 3 corners, 9 conceded

Last season 4.8 corners in the match, 5.4 against ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?

● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · match statistics

Measured numbers for the season

Style of play · season 2026-27

Line: line mid-level: 15 offsides drawn ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · offsides and shot locations

Progression: progresses directly: 24.4 passes per shot (league's most direct 2./20), possession 45 % ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · passes and shots

Set pieces: in attack 27 corners (league 15./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 36 corners against (6./20), no headed goals conceded ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · corners and goal types

Second half: output weighted to the second half (6+7 goals); own end leaks late (concessions 2+6); own threat rose in the second half in 5 of 7 matches (median +0.46 xG, league +0.15); opponents' threat rose in the second half in 6 of 7 matches (median +0.29 xG, league +0.15); first substitution on average at minute 52 (forced reaction) ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · goals and substitutions by minute

When leading: lead held 1/3: led at half-time 3 times, and 2 of those leads did not hold to a win (opponent xG in matches where they led 0.80 → 2.67) ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · threat by half

Game state: Leading 31 % of playing time, level 65 %, trailing 4 %. ● minutes from goal events · ○ interpretation

Threat by half, average of 7 matches (gold = Brentford): own threat rose in the second half in 5 of 7 matches, median +0.46 xG (league +0.15). Two-half split, not a minute curve.

Tracking · season 2026-27

Box pressure delivers: 82 shots from inside the box (league 1./20) and 13 goals, 105 shots in total (6./20) ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · match statistics
We track whether box pressure holds when opponents defend deeper: volume without goals is recorded as inefficiency.

The cost of indiscipline grows: 20 cards (league 3./20) and 103 fouls (1./20) ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · match statistics
We track whether cards accumulate into suspensions and fouls into set pieces for opponents.

One round is not a trend, so each line says what we track next.

Data limit: we see how many shots there are and where they come from (inside or outside the box), plus the game state. We do not see the route the attack took (through the middle or down the flanks) or where possession was lost.

Last season's baseline

The baseline is the 2025-26 squad. Since then these players left: Jordan Henderson. ● season 2025-26 minutes · current squad

Analyst's take

Brentford's player groups sat at opposite ends of the goals comparison

Players classified as defenders scored 5 goals (league-comparison rank 15). Players classified as forwards scored 22 goals (league-comparison rank 2).

Insights

Thiago carried the output: 23 % of the team's goal involvements (23 in total, the league's 3. largest share).

Keane Lewis-Potter produced exceptionally for a defender: 7 goal involvements.

● season 2025-26 · goal involvements from full-season round data

● Brentford landed where they deserved; the attack worked, the defence did not.

● Wins went missing in March–April, 6 matches in a row, the longest stretch of the season.

● Could not find the net: only 55 scored despite chances worth 60.6 (gap −5.6).

Attack: who produced the goals and assists

	Finishing goals vs xG	Chance creation assists vs xA
Defenders	−4.0	+2.3
Midfield	−2.3	+0.6
Forwards	+1.8	−3.6

Defence, team level

Chance prevention
little danger

−3.0

Shot-stopping
conceded vs chances

+3.3

Data profile · style, character, output ●

Style of play Low block: 36 % of shots conceded from outside the box, forces opponents to shoot from range. Deep line: the offside trap springs rarely (1.0/match). Scoring splits evenly across the halves (56 % in the second). Rotation 1.8 line-up changes/round. ● season 2025-26 · half-time split from result data · rotation from round data · style from match stats (possession, passes, offsides)

Character Recovered 3 points from losing positions (1 matches) and dropped 7 points from leads (3 matches). One-goal matches 5–4. Home fortress: 32 points at home, 21 away. ● season 2025-26 · HT–FT turnarounds from results data

Output Of shots on target, 37 % went in; of those faced, 32 %. Corners 4.8 vs 5.4 per match · 69 yellows over the season. ● season 2025-26 · shots on target, corners and cards from results data

Player readings · 2

● Thiago produced 100 % of the xGI of players classed as forwards in Brentford's register (2 comparable players).

● Mathias Jensen produced 6.1 xA, i.e. 17 % of Brentford's team xA.

Signals established profile season 2026-27 ●

What we don't know yet

no active hypothesis

TEAM IDENTITY

Home ground

Gtech Community Stadium

Gtech Community Stadium opened on 1.9.2020 and replaced Griffin Park.

source: StadiumDB, Gtech Community Stadium

TEAM MEMORY

29.05 · 2021

Nousu Valioliigaan

Brentford reach the Premier League with a 2-0 play-off final win over Swansea City. Their previous top-flight season was 1946-47.

source: Brentford FC (brentfordfc.com), 2021 Championship play-off final