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MY CLUB

Coventry

THE SQUAD

GKRushworth

DEFEwijk

DEFThomas

DEFPinnock

DEFDasilva

MIDGrimes

MIDYirenkyi

MIDSakamoto

MIDRudoni

FWDThomas-Asante

FWDCherif

● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 8

fitness concernformno measured deviation

No measured deviations in the core squad right now.

Bench

MIDTorpMIDHamerDEFKesler-HaydenDEFLatibeaudiere

NEXT CHECK

LAST MATCH

Coventry – Fulham 0–1 (puoliaika 0–0) ● result: round data

Sat 24 Oct

PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT

No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.

Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Coventry shoot this season 10.3 times per match (19th in the league, not in the Premier League last season), Fulham: 14.1 shots conceded (league 11.). The match's shot count tells which number held. ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · last season for comparison
What happened: the pressure held: 13 shots (baseline 10.3, opponent concedes 14.1). ● round data
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Coventry score this season from 8.3 percent of their shots (13th in the league, not in the Premier League last season), Fulham: save percentage on shots on target 65.5 (league 11.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created. ●
What happened: goalkeeping and finishing beat the team: 0 goals from 0.58 expected (-0.58), 0 % of shots scored. ●
Third: Set pieces. Coventry win this season 3.7 corners per match (16th in the league, not in the Premier League last season), Fulham: 4.3 corners conceded (league 14.). The expectation is at least 4 corners. ●
What happened: expectation met: 4 corners (expected 4), 0 goals. ●
Fourth: The whole system at the bottom end. Possession 38 % (league 19./20), own output 1.02 xG and 1.63 xG given to opponents (5./20 most): 5 metrics at the bottom end at once ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · match statistics
What happened: observation repeated, possession 36 %, 0 goals. ●
One more: The second half fades. Threat fell in the second half in 4 of 7 matches, median −0.09 xG per match (league +0.19). Without the single largest match (vs Hull City, −0.88) the average is −0.08, and without matches where they were ahead at half-time (1) −0.18 ●
What happened: observation repeated, threat 0.31 → 0.27 xG. ●
Finally: Rhythm. Threat fell in the second half in 4 of 7 matches, median −0.09 xG per match (league +0.19). Without the single largest match (vs Hull City, −0.88) the average is −0.08, and without matches where they were ahead at half-time (1) −0.18. ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · threat by half
What happened: Rytmiväite ei pitänyt (aloittaa terävästi): omia maaleja ei tullut, päästöt 0+1. ●
And: Player pick. Sidiki Cherif is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 17.0 points on average in 3 matches, top three 1 times. ● season 2026-27 · match ratings before the round
What happened: Player pick did not hold: Sidiki Cherif ranked 10/15 in his team's match ratings. Match score 8, season average before the match 17.0. ●
And: Style of play. Plays without the ball: possession 38 % (league's 2. lowest); space comes from transitions. ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · match statistics
What happened: Style claim held: possession 36 % (league level 50 %). ●

From this match: 5/8 held

Threat by half (expected goals, gold = Coventry): shots 7/6 and 6/6 Two-half split, not a minute-by-minute curve.

Events by minute: Coventry on top, Fulham below, 1 goals and 2 cards. Vertical lines at minutes 45 and 90. ● match events

Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.

This match's verdict on the Matches list →

NEXT MATCH

Coventry – Sunderland

Sat 31.10. · 17:00 · ○ fixture info, as of 25.10.

This match's preview on the Matches list →

PREVIEW READING

These claims are graded against the outcome after the match.

Pressure against defence: Coventry shoot this season 10.3 times per match (19th in the league, not in the Premier League last season), Sunderland: 14.6 shots conceded (league 14.). The match's shot count tells which number held. ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · last season for comparison

Finishing against the goalkeeper: Coventry score this season from 8.3 percent of their shots (13th in the league, not in the Premier League last season), Sunderland: save percentage on shots on target 46.1 (league 20.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created. ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · last season for comparison

Set pieces: Coventry win this season 3.7 corners per match (16th in the league, not in the Premier League last season), Sunderland: 4.1 corners conceded (league 15.). The expectation is at least 4 corners. ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · last season for comparison

The second half fades: Threat fell in the second half in 5 of 8 matches, median −0.07 xG per match (league +0.15). Without the single largest match (vs Hull City, −0.88) the average is −0.08, and without matches where they were ahead at half-time (1) −0.16 ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · match statistics

Rytmi: Threat fell in the second half in 5 of 8 matches, median −0.07 xG per match (league +0.15). Without the single largest match (vs Hull City, −0.88) the average is −0.08, and without matches where they were ahead at half-time (1) −0.16. ● season 2026-27 · 8 matches before the round · threat by half

Style of play: Plays without the ball: possession 37 % (league's 2. lowest); space comes from transitions. ● season 2026-27 · 8 matches before the round · match statistics

Baseline per match from last season: upper bar Coventry, lower Sunderland, vertical line the league level. ● measured 2025-26

The watch-list is published. The opponent card fills in about two days before kick-off.

TEAM BASELINE

Coventry

promoted · Championship → Premier League 2026-27

now 19th in the table · 6 pts ●

Playing identity There are no Premier League measurements from last season, so identity is not locked from history. The current season has 71 measured observations, and the reading is built from them. ● season 2026-27 · match stats

What has changed?

The box has been reached too easily: 14 shots against from inside the box (22 in total) (Sun 13.9. home vs Brighton).

Signal hypothesis · strengthening · 8 matches

Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.

+ Sun 13.9. home vs Brighton: 14 shots against from inside the box (22 in total)

− Sat 29.8. home vs Hull City: 2 shots against from inside the box (5 in total)

Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?

Evidence in detail

Holds up across game states: in close periods 5.1 shots conceded from inside the box per 45 min, league 4/20 (12 periods). ● close period = margin of at most 1 goal for at least 75 % of the period's minutes · match stats by half

Other tracked hypotheses (6)

Hypothesis 2 · Shooting accuracy State · strengthening · 8 matches

Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.

Supports

+ Fri 21.8. away vs Arsenal: 1/4 shots on target (25 %)

+ Mon 19.10. away vs Tottenham: 1/12 shots on target (8 %)

+ Sat 5.9. away vs Manchester City: 3/12 shots on target (25 %)

+ Sat 29.8. home vs Hull City: 3/11 shots on target (27 %)

+ Sat 24.10. home vs Fulham: 2/13 shots on target (15 %)

+ Sat 19.9. away vs Nottingham Forest: 3/10 shots on target (30 %)

Challenges

− Sun 13.9. home vs Brighton: 6/14 shots on target (43 %)

− Mon 12.10. home vs Newcastle: 6/9 shots on target (67 %)

Holds up across game states: in close periods 24 % of shots on target, league 17/20 (12 periods). ● close period = margin of at most 1 goal for at least 75 % of the period's minutes · match stats by half

Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?

Hypothesis 3 · Defensive line State · strengthening · 6 matches

The defence appears to hold a high line.

Supports

+ Fri 21.8. away vs Arsenal: 5 offsides won

+ Mon 19.10. away vs Tottenham: 6 offsides won

+ Mon 12.10. home vs Newcastle: 5 offsides won

+ Sat 5.9. away vs Manchester City: 5 offsides won

+ Sat 24.10. home vs Fulham: 3 offsides won

Challenges

− Sat 29.8. home vs Hull City: 0 offsides won

Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?

Hypothesis 4 · Finishing State · strengthening · 5 matches

Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.

Supports

+ Sun 13.9. home vs Brighton: 0 goals from 1.33 expected (-1.33)

+ Sat 5.9. away vs Manchester City: 0 goals from 1.37 expected (-1.37)

+ Sat 29.8. home vs Hull City: 0 goals from 1.28 expected (-1.28)

+ Sat 24.10. home vs Fulham: 0 goals from 0.58 expected (-0.58)

Challenges

− Mon 12.10. home vs Newcastle: 4 goals from 1.47 expected (+2.53)

Holds up across game states: in close periods 3.6 goals below expected (xG), league 18/20 (12 periods). ● close period = margin of at most 1 goal for at least 75 % of the period's minutes · match stats by half

Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?

Hypothesis 5 · Box pressure State · strengthening · 5 matches

The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.

Supports

+ Sun 13.9. home vs Brighton: 12/14 shots from inside the box

+ Mon 19.10. away vs Tottenham: 11/12 shots from inside the box

+ Sat 5.9. away vs Manchester City: 8/12 shots from inside the box

+ Sat 24.10. home vs Fulham: 8/13 shots from inside the box

Challenges

− Fri 21.8. away vs Arsenal: 1/4 shots from inside the box

Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?

Hypothesis 6 · Set pieces State · strengthening · 4 matches

Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.

Supports

+ Sun 13.9. home vs Brighton: 5 corners, 3 conceded

+ Sat 5.9. away vs Manchester City: 5 corners, 4 conceded

+ Sat 29.8. home vs Hull City: 6 corners, 2 conceded

Challenges

− Mon 19.10. away vs Tottenham: 4 corners, 4 conceded

Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?

Hypothesis 7 · The whole system at the bottom end State · new · 8 matches

It looks like one metric rises first.

Supports

+ vs : Possession 37 % (league 19./20), own output 0.97 xG and 1.50 xG given to opponents (7./20 most): 5 metrics at the bottom end at once

Challenges

No counter-evidence yet.

Does not stand out in close periods: 0.64 xG against per 45 min, league 15/20 (12 periods). The game state explains the number at least in part. ● close period = margin of at most 1 goal for at least 75 % of the period's minutes · match stats by half

Next test Does this hold in the coming rounds: a systemic concern only clears with several metrics moving; we track which climbs first, possession or their own output?

Show 71 findings

Sun 13 Sep home vs Brighton · Finishing + 0 goals from 1.33 expected (-1.33)

Sun 13 Sep home vs Brighton · Threat by half − own threat 0.97 → 0.37 xG, opponents 0.97 → 1.83

Sun 13 Sep home vs Brighton · Goalkeeper − 2 saves

Sun 13 Sep home vs Brighton · Shooting accuracy − 6/14 shots on target (43 %)

Sun 13 Sep home vs Brighton · Duels + 57 % of duels won (55/96)

Sun 13 Sep home vs Brighton · Possession and duels − possession 31 %, duels 57 %

Sun 13 Sep home vs Brighton · Set pieces + 5 corners, 3 conceded

Sun 13 Sep home vs Brighton · Own box + 14 shots against from inside the box (22 in total)

Sun 13 Sep home vs Brighton · Box pressure + 12/14 shots from inside the box

Fri 21 Aug away vs Arsenal · Goalkeeper − 2 saves

Fri 21 Aug away vs Arsenal · Shooting accuracy + 1/4 shots on target (25 %)

Fri 21 Aug away vs Arsenal · Defensive line + 5 offsides won

Fri 21 Aug away vs Arsenal · Discipline − 1 cards, 13 fouls

Fri 21 Aug away vs Arsenal · Duels − 48 % of duels won (34/71)

Fri 21 Aug away vs Arsenal · Possession and duels − possession 36 %, duels 48 %

Fri 21 Aug away vs Arsenal · Own box + 10 shots against from inside the box (20 in total)

Fri 21 Aug away vs Arsenal · Box pressure − 1/4 shots from inside the box

Mon 19 Oct away vs Tottenham · Goalkeeper − 2 saves

Mon 19 Oct away vs Tottenham · Shooting accuracy + 1/12 shots on target (8 %)

Mon 19 Oct away vs Tottenham · Defensive line + 6 offsides won

Mon 19 Oct away vs Tottenham · Discipline + 3 cards, 14 fouls

Mon 19 Oct away vs Tottenham · Duels − 50 % of duels won (59/117)

Mon 19 Oct away vs Tottenham · Possession and duels − possession 34 %, duels 50 %

Mon 19 Oct away vs Tottenham · Set pieces − 4 corners, 4 conceded

Mon 19 Oct away vs Tottenham · Own box + 10 shots against from inside the box (16 in total)

Mon 19 Oct away vs Tottenham · Box pressure + 11/12 shots from inside the box

Mon 12 Oct home vs Newcastle · Finishing − 4 goals from 1.47 expected (+2.53)

Mon 12 Oct home vs Newcastle · Goalkeeper + 4 saves

Mon 12 Oct home vs Newcastle · Shooting accuracy − 6/9 shots on target (67 %)

Mon 12 Oct home vs Newcastle · Defensive line + 5 offsides won

Mon 12 Oct home vs Newcastle · Discipline − 1 cards, 3 fouls

Mon 12 Oct home vs Newcastle · Duels − 46 % of duels won (37/81)

Mon 12 Oct home vs Newcastle · Possession and duels − possession 33 %, duels 46 %

Mon 12 Oct home vs Newcastle · Own box + 11 shots against from inside the box (19 in total)

Sat 5 Sep away vs Manchester City · Finishing + 0 goals from 1.37 expected (-1.37)

Sat 5 Sep away vs Manchester City · Threat by half − own threat 0.73 → 0.64 xG, opponents 1.08 → 1.04

Sat 5 Sep away vs Manchester City · Goalkeeper − 2 saves

Sat 5 Sep away vs Manchester City · Shooting accuracy + 3/12 shots on target (25 %)

Sat 5 Sep away vs Manchester City · Defensive line + 5 offsides won

Sat 5 Sep away vs Manchester City · Discipline + 2 cards, 17 fouls

Sat 5 Sep away vs Manchester City · Duels − 41 % of duels won (44/107)

Sat 5 Sep away vs Manchester City · Possession and duels − possession 22 %, duels 41 %

Sat 5 Sep away vs Manchester City · Set pieces + 5 corners, 4 conceded

Sat 5 Sep away vs Manchester City · Own box + 14 shots against from inside the box (15 in total)

Sat 5 Sep away vs Manchester City · Box pressure + 8/12 shots from inside the box

Sat 29 Aug home vs Hull City · Finishing + 0 goals from 1.28 expected (-1.28)

Sat 29 Aug home vs Hull City · Threat by half − own threat 1.08 → 0.20 xG, opponents 0.02 → 0.70

Sat 29 Aug home vs Hull City · Goalkeeper − 1 saves

Sat 29 Aug home vs Hull City · Shooting accuracy + 3/11 shots on target (27 %)

Sat 29 Aug home vs Hull City · Defensive line − 0 offsides won

Sat 29 Aug home vs Hull City · Discipline − 1 cards, 11 fouls

Sat 29 Aug home vs Hull City · Duels − 44 % of duels won (36/81)

Sat 29 Aug home vs Hull City · Possession and duels + possession 69 %, duels 44 %

Sat 29 Aug home vs Hull City · Set pieces + 6 corners, 2 conceded

Sat 29 Aug home vs Hull City · Own box − 2 shots against from inside the box (5 in total)

Sat 24 Oct home vs Fulham · Finishing + 0 goals from 0.58 expected (-0.58)

Sat 24 Oct home vs Fulham · Threat by half − own threat 0.31 → 0.27 xG, opponents 0.36 → 0.25

Sat 24 Oct home vs Fulham · Goalkeeper − 2 saves

Sat 24 Oct home vs Fulham · Shooting accuracy + 2/13 shots on target (15 %)

Sat 24 Oct home vs Fulham · Defensive line + 3 offsides won

Sat 24 Oct home vs Fulham · Discipline − 0 cards, 9 fouls

Sat 24 Oct home vs Fulham · Duels − 46 % of duels won (41/90)

Sat 24 Oct home vs Fulham · Possession and duels − possession 36 %, duels 46 %

Sat 24 Oct home vs Fulham · Own box + 8 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)

Sat 24 Oct home vs Fulham · Box pressure + 8/13 shots from inside the box

Sat 19 Sep away vs Nottingham Forest · Goalkeeper − 2 saves

Sat 19 Sep away vs Nottingham Forest · Shooting accuracy + 3/10 shots on target (30 %)

Sat 19 Sep away vs Nottingham Forest · Discipline − 0 cards, 10 fouls

Sat 19 Sep away vs Nottingham Forest · Duels − 51 % of duels won (54/106)

Sat 19 Sep away vs Nottingham Forest · Possession and duels − possession 38 %, duels 51 %

Sat 19 Sep away vs Nottingham Forest · Own box + 12 shots against from inside the box (24 in total)

A finding is one measured item from one match. A + mark supports the pattern, a − challenges it.

Suljetut hypoteesit (5)

What is closed is not deleted: it shows what we thought and why the view changed.

Hypothesis 1 · Discipline State · closed · 7 matches

The cost of indiscipline may rise.

Supports

+ Mon 19.10. away vs Tottenham: 3 cards, 14 fouls

+ Sat 5.9. away vs Manchester City: 2 cards, 17 fouls

Challenges

− Fri 21.8. away vs Arsenal: 1 cards, 13 fouls

− Mon 12.10. home vs Newcastle: 1 cards, 3 fouls

− Sat 29.8. home vs Hull City: 1 cards, 11 fouls

− Sat 24.10. home vs Fulham: 0 cards, 9 fouls

− Sat 19.9. away vs Nottingham Forest: 0 cards, 10 fouls

Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?

Hypothesis 2 · Possession and duels State · closed · 8 matches

Possession may not be matched by duel wins.

Supports

+ Sat 29.8. home vs Hull City: possession 69 %, duels 44 %

Challenges

− Sun 13.9. home vs Brighton: possession 31 %, duels 57 %

− Fri 21.8. away vs Arsenal: possession 36 %, duels 48 %

− Mon 19.10. away vs Tottenham: possession 34 %, duels 50 %

− Mon 12.10. home vs Newcastle: possession 33 %, duels 46 %

− Sat 5.9. away vs Manchester City: possession 22 %, duels 41 %

− Sat 24.10. home vs Fulham: possession 36 %, duels 46 %

− Sat 19.9. away vs Nottingham Forest: possession 38 %, duels 51 %

Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?

Hypothesis 3 · Duels State · closed · 8 matches

Duels appear to carry this team's game.

Supports

+ Sun 13.9. home vs Brighton: 57 % of duels won (55/96)

Challenges

− Fri 21.8. away vs Arsenal: 48 % of duels won (34/71)

− Mon 19.10. away vs Tottenham: 50 % of duels won (59/117)

− Mon 12.10. home vs Newcastle: 46 % of duels won (37/81)

− Sat 5.9. away vs Manchester City: 41 % of duels won (44/107)

− Sat 29.8. home vs Hull City: 44 % of duels won (36/81)

− Sat 24.10. home vs Fulham: 46 % of duels won (41/90)

− Sat 19.9. away vs Nottingham Forest: 51 % of duels won (54/106)

Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?

Hypothesis 4 · Goalkeeper State · closed · 8 matches

The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.

Supports

+ Mon 12.10. home vs Newcastle: 4 saves

Challenges

− Sun 13.9. home vs Brighton: 2 saves

− Fri 21.8. away vs Arsenal: 2 saves

− Mon 19.10. away vs Tottenham: 2 saves

− Sat 5.9. away vs Manchester City: 2 saves

− Sat 29.8. home vs Hull City: 1 saves

− Sat 24.10. home vs Fulham: 2 saves

− Sat 19.9. away vs Nottingham Forest: 2 saves

Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?

Hypothesis 5 · Threat by half State · closed · 4 matches

The threat appears weighted towards the second half.

Supports

No longer backed by the evidence.

Challenges

− Sun 13.9. home vs Brighton: own threat 0.97 → 0.37 xG, opponents 0.97 → 1.83

− Sat 5.9. away vs Manchester City: own threat 0.73 → 0.64 xG, opponents 1.08 → 1.04

− Sat 29.8. home vs Hull City: own threat 1.08 → 0.20 xG, opponents 0.02 → 0.70

− Sat 24.10. home vs Fulham: own threat 0.31 → 0.27 xG, opponents 0.36 → 0.25

Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?

● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · match statistics

Measured numbers for the season

Style of play · season 2026-27

Line: high line: opponents caught offside 28 times (league 2./20) ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · offsides and shot locations

Progression: progression mid-table: 30.7 passes per shot, possession 37 % ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · passes and shots

Set pieces: in attack 30 corners (league 16./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 39 corners against (8./20), no headed goals conceded ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · corners and goal types

Second half: output weighted to the second half (1+5 goals); own end leaks late (concessions 5+10); own threat rose in the second half in 3 of 8 matches (median −0.07 xG, league +0.15); opponents' threat rose in the second half in 2 of 8 matches (median −0.07 xG, league +0.15); first substitution on average at minute 59 ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · goals and substitutions by minute

When leading: killed the game: led at half-time once, the opponent's threat fell in the second half and the lead held to a win (opponent xG vs Newcastle 1.23 → 0.64) ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · threat by half

Game state: Leading 17 % of playing time, level 45 %, trailing 39 %. ● minutes from goal events · ○ interpretation

Threat by half, average of 8 matches (gold = Coventry): own threat rose in the second half in 3 of 8 matches, median −0.07 xG (league +0.15). Two-half split, not a minute curve.

Tracking · season 2026-27

The whole system at the bottom end: Possession 37 % (league 19./20), own output 0.97 xG and 1.50 xG given to opponents (7./20 most): 5 metrics at the bottom end at once ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · match statistics
We track whether any metric climbs out of the tail: a systemic concern only clears with several metrics moving.

One round is not a trend, so each line says what we track next.

Data limit: we see how many shots there are and where they come from (inside or outside the box), plus the game state. We do not see the route the attack took (through the middle or down the flanks) or where possession was lost.

TEAM MEMORY

ON THIS DAY

No verified club memory for this date.