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”Nil Satis Nisi Optimum”, only the best is good enough
THE SQUAD
● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 8
NEXT CHECK
LAST MATCH
Arsenal – Everton 2–0 (puoliaika 1–0)
PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT
No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.
Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Everton shoot this season 14.4 times per match (9th in the league, last season 11.1 and 15th in the league), Arsenal: 11.1 shots conceded (league 5.). The match's shot count tells which number held.
What happened: the defence won: 8 shots (baseline 14.4, opponent concedes 11.1).
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Everton score this season from 7.9 percent of their shots (15th in the league, last season 11.2 and 8th in the league), Arsenal: save percentage on shots on target 76.2 (league 6.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created.
What happened: goalkeeping and finishing beat the team: 0 goals from 0.54 expected (-0.54), 0 % of shots scored.
Third: Set pieces. Everton win this season 5.1 corners per match (7th in the league, last season 4.3 and 16th in the league), Arsenal: 4.0 corners conceded (league 18.). The expectation is at least 4 corners.
What happened: fell short of expectation: 3 corners (expected 4), 0 goals.
Fourth: The duels carry. 52 % of duels won (345/658), league 3./20
What happened: observation repeated, 54 % of duels won.
One more: Player pick. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 26.9 points on average in 7 matches, top three 5 times.
What happened: Player pick held: Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall was among his team's best in the match ratings (3/14). Match score 13, season average before the match 26.9.
Finally: Style of play. Deep line: the offside trap springs rarely (0.7/match).
What happened: Style claim held: 0 offsides drawn (league level 2.0).
From this match: 3/6 held
Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.
WHAT WE PAY ATTENTION TO
Everton's defence was 7. in the league, the attack 15. Watch whether the two league comparisons converge.
MANAGER'S CORNER · FANTASY
Not in the squad in round 8 ●
Historically 3 257 regular starters dropped out of the line-up (for any reason): 60 % did not start the next match either (those who kept their place: 15 %) ●
Benched in round 8, no minutes ●
Not in the squad in round 8 ●
doubtful · 75 % · injury ▷
TEAM BASELINE
The head coach on the team sheet changed in round 4: Leighton Baines (rounds 1–3) → D. Moyes (rounds 4–8).
Match averages before and after: possession 43 % → 49 %; xG 1.30 → 1.23; xG against 1.62 → 1.39; shots against 14.0 → 14.8.
Left after the 2025-26 season: Iliman Ndiaye (2781 min, goals+assists 6+3, 13 % of the team's goals, now Man City); Gana (2094 min, goals+assists 2+3, 4 % of the team's goals, no longer in a league squad); Tim Iroegbunam (1477 min, goals+assists 0+3, now Hull City); Dwight McNeil (1161 min, goals+assists 0+3, now Crystal Palace).
New starters: Brennan Johnson (5 starts, came from Crystal Palace); Ainsley Maitland-Niles (4 starts, from outside the league); Hayden Hackney (1 start, from outside the league).
The box has been reached too easily: 9 shots against from inside the box (9 in total) (Sun 11.10. away vs Hull City).
Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.
+ Sun 11.10. away vs Hull City: 9 shots against from inside the box (9 in total)
− Sun 6.9. home vs Manchester United: 6 shots against from inside the box (14 in total)
Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?
Holds up across game states: in close periods 5.0 shots conceded from inside the box per 45 min, league 5/20 (14 periods).
Last season 14.0 shots against in the match (no box split)
Hypothesis 2 · Duels State · strengthening · 8 matches
Duels appear to carry this team's game.
Supports
+ Sun 6.9. home vs Manchester United: 56 % of duels won (51/91)
+ Sun 11.10. away vs Hull City: 61 % of duels won (57/93)
+ Sat 24.10. away vs Arsenal: 54 % of duels won (50/93)
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Crystal Palace: 54 % of duels won (53/99)
+ Sat 19.9. home vs Ipswich: 53 % of duels won (46/87)
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Tottenham: 57 % of duels won (54/95)
Challenges
− Sat 29.8. away vs Bournemouth: 44 % of duels won (45/103)
− Sat 17.10. home vs Chelsea: 43 % of duels won (39/90)
Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?
Hypothesis 3 · Discipline State · strengthening · 8 matches
The cost of indiscipline may rise.
Supports
+ Sun 6.9. home vs Manchester United: 3 cards, 7 fouls
+ Sat 29.8. away vs Bournemouth: 2 cards, 14 fouls
+ Sat 24.10. away vs Arsenal: 3 cards, 13 fouls
+ Sat 19.9. home vs Ipswich: 2 cards, 6 fouls
+ Sat 17.10. home vs Chelsea: 3 cards, 8 fouls
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Tottenham: 2 cards, 8 fouls
Challenges
− Sun 11.10. away vs Hull City: 0 cards, 4 fouls
− Sat 22.8. home vs Crystal Palace: 0 cards, 5 fouls
Last season 2.1 cards and 10.7 fouls in the match
Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?
Hypothesis 4 · Box pressure State · strengthening · 5 matches
The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.
Supports
+ Sun 6.9. home vs Manchester United: 14/18 shots from inside the box
+ Sun 11.10. away vs Hull City: 11/15 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Crystal Palace: 11/16 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 19.9. home vs Ipswich: 13/21 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Tottenham: 9/12 shots from inside the box
Challenges
No counter-evidence yet.
Weakens in close periods: 4.8 shots from inside the box per 45 min, league 7/20 (14 periods). Part of the number comes from the game state.
Last season 11.1 shots in the match (no box split from last season, so the comparison is shot count)
Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?
Hypothesis 5 · Finishing State · strengthening · 7 matches
Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.
Supports
+ Sat 29.8. away vs Bournemouth: 1 goals from 1.72 expected (-0.72)
+ Sat 24.10. away vs Arsenal: 0 goals from 0.54 expected (-0.54)
+ Sat 19.9. home vs Ipswich: 1 goals from 2.24 expected (-1.24)
+ Sat 17.10. home vs Chelsea: 0 goals from 0.54 expected (-0.54)
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Tottenham: 0 goals from 1.11 expected (-1.11)
Challenges
− Sun 6.9. home vs Manchester United: 2 goals from 1.01 expected (+0.99)
− Sat 22.8. home vs Crystal Palace: 2 goals from 1.16 expected (+0.84)
Holds up across game states: in close periods 2.0 goals below expected (xG), league 16/20 (14 periods).
Last season 1.2 goals and 11.1 shots in the match, 11 % of shots scored
Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?
Hypothesis 6 · Goalkeeper State · mixed · 8 matches
The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.
Supports
+ Sat 29.8. away vs Bournemouth: 4 saves
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Crystal Palace: 4 saves
+ Sat 19.9. home vs Ipswich: 4 saves
+ Sat 17.10. home vs Chelsea: 4 saves
Challenges
− Sun 6.9. home vs Manchester United: 1 saves
− Sun 11.10. away vs Hull City: 2 saves
− Sat 24.10. away vs Arsenal: 2 saves
− Sat 12.9. away vs Tottenham: 2 saves
Last season 69 % of shots on target kept out (50 conceded / 162)
Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?
Hypothesis 7 · Threat by half State · mixed · 6 matches
The threat appears weighted towards the second half.
Supports
+ Sun 6.9. home vs Manchester United: own threat 0.34 → 0.67 xG, opponents 0.29 → 0.40
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Crystal Palace: own threat 0.31 → 0.85 xG, opponents 1.65 → 0.39
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Tottenham: own threat 0.15 → 0.96 xG, opponents 0.36 → 0.33
Challenges
− Sat 29.8. away vs Bournemouth: own threat 1.06 → 0.66 xG, opponents 0.48 → 1.66
− Sat 24.10. away vs Arsenal: own threat 0.31 → 0.23 xG, opponents 1.21 → 0.64
− Sat 17.10. home vs Chelsea: own threat 0.36 → 0.18 xG, opponents 0.55 → 1.04
Last season 60 % of goals came in the second half (28 / 47)
Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?
Sun 6 Sep home vs Manchester United · Finishing − 2 goals from 1.01 expected (+0.99)
Sun 6 Sep home vs Manchester United · Threat by half + own threat 0.34 → 0.67 xG, opponents 0.29 → 0.40
Sun 6 Sep home vs Manchester United · Goalkeeper − 1 saves
Sun 6 Sep home vs Manchester United · Shooting accuracy − 6/18 shots on target (33 %)
Sun 6 Sep home vs Manchester United · Discipline + 3 cards, 7 fouls
Sun 6 Sep home vs Manchester United · Duels + 56 % of duels won (51/91)
Sun 6 Sep home vs Manchester United · Possession and duels − possession 45 %, duels 56 %
Sun 6 Sep home vs Manchester United · Set pieces − 4 corners, 3 conceded
Sun 6 Sep home vs Manchester United · Own box − 6 shots against from inside the box (14 in total)
Sun 6 Sep home vs Manchester United · Box pressure + 14/18 shots from inside the box
Sun 11 Oct away vs Hull City · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Sun 11 Oct away vs Hull City · Shooting accuracy − 7/15 shots on target (47 %)
Sun 11 Oct away vs Hull City · Discipline − 0 cards, 4 fouls
Sun 11 Oct away vs Hull City · Duels + 61 % of duels won (57/93)
Sun 11 Oct away vs Hull City · Possession and duels − possession 65 %, duels 61 %
Sun 11 Oct away vs Hull City · Set pieces − 6 corners, 7 conceded
Sun 11 Oct away vs Hull City · Own box + 9 shots against from inside the box (9 in total)
Sun 11 Oct away vs Hull City · Box pressure + 11/15 shots from inside the box
Sat 29 Aug away vs Bournemouth · Finishing + 1 goals from 1.72 expected (-0.72)
Sat 29 Aug away vs Bournemouth · Threat by half − own threat 1.06 → 0.66 xG, opponents 0.48 → 1.66
Sat 29 Aug away vs Bournemouth · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Sat 29 Aug away vs Bournemouth · Shooting accuracy − 7/13 shots on target (54 %)
Sat 29 Aug away vs Bournemouth · Defensive line − 0 offsides won
Sat 29 Aug away vs Bournemouth · Discipline + 2 cards, 14 fouls
Sat 29 Aug away vs Bournemouth · Duels − 44 % of duels won (45/103)
Sat 29 Aug away vs Bournemouth · Possession and duels − possession 42 %, duels 44 %
Sat 29 Aug away vs Bournemouth · Set pieces − 7 corners, 10 conceded
Sat 29 Aug away vs Bournemouth · Own box + 13 shots against from inside the box (17 in total)
Sat 24 Oct away vs Arsenal · Finishing + 0 goals from 0.54 expected (-0.54)
Sat 24 Oct away vs Arsenal · Threat by half − own threat 0.31 → 0.23 xG, opponents 1.21 → 0.64
Sat 24 Oct away vs Arsenal · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Sat 24 Oct away vs Arsenal · Shooting accuracy − 3/8 shots on target (38 %)
Sat 24 Oct away vs Arsenal · Defensive line − 0 offsides won
Sat 24 Oct away vs Arsenal · Discipline + 3 cards, 13 fouls
Sat 24 Oct away vs Arsenal · Duels + 54 % of duels won (50/93)
Sat 24 Oct away vs Arsenal · Possession and duels − possession 42 %, duels 54 %
Sat 24 Oct away vs Arsenal · Own box + 12 shots against from inside the box (20 in total)
Sat 22 Aug home vs Crystal Palace · Finishing − 2 goals from 1.16 expected (+0.84)
Sat 22 Aug home vs Crystal Palace · Threat by half + own threat 0.31 → 0.85 xG, opponents 1.65 → 0.39
Sat 22 Aug home vs Crystal Palace · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Sat 22 Aug home vs Crystal Palace · Shooting accuracy − 5/16 shots on target (31 %)
Sat 22 Aug home vs Crystal Palace · Defensive line − 0 offsides won
Sat 22 Aug home vs Crystal Palace · Discipline − 0 cards, 5 fouls
Sat 22 Aug home vs Crystal Palace · Duels + 54 % of duels won (53/99)
Sat 22 Aug home vs Crystal Palace · Possession and duels − possession 42 %, duels 54 %
Sat 22 Aug home vs Crystal Palace · Set pieces − 4 corners, 0 conceded
Sat 22 Aug home vs Crystal Palace · Own box + 8 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)
Sat 22 Aug home vs Crystal Palace · Box pressure + 11/16 shots from inside the box
Sat 19 Sep home vs Ipswich · Finishing + 1 goals from 2.24 expected (-1.24)
Sat 19 Sep home vs Ipswich · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Sat 19 Sep home vs Ipswich · Shooting accuracy + 2/21 shots on target (10 %)
Sat 19 Sep home vs Ipswich · Defensive line − 0 offsides won
Sat 19 Sep home vs Ipswich · Discipline + 2 cards, 6 fouls
Sat 19 Sep home vs Ipswich · Duels + 53 % of duels won (46/87)
Sat 19 Sep home vs Ipswich · Possession and duels − possession 52 %, duels 53 %
Sat 19 Sep home vs Ipswich · Set pieces − 4 corners, 4 conceded
Sat 19 Sep home vs Ipswich · Own box + 9 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
Sat 19 Sep home vs Ipswich · Box pressure + 13/21 shots from inside the box
Sat 17 Oct home vs Chelsea · Finishing + 0 goals from 0.54 expected (-0.54)
Sat 17 Oct home vs Chelsea · Threat by half − own threat 0.36 → 0.18 xG, opponents 0.55 → 1.04
Sat 17 Oct home vs Chelsea · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Sat 17 Oct home vs Chelsea · Shooting accuracy − 5/6 shots on target (83 %)
Sat 17 Oct home vs Chelsea · Discipline + 3 cards, 8 fouls
Sat 17 Oct home vs Chelsea · Duels − 43 % of duels won (39/90)
Sat 17 Oct home vs Chelsea · Possession and duels − possession 47 %, duels 43 %
Sat 17 Oct home vs Chelsea · Set pieces + 5 corners, 7 conceded
Sat 17 Oct home vs Chelsea · Own box + 10 shots against from inside the box (18 in total)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Tottenham · Finishing + 0 goals from 1.11 expected (-1.11)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Tottenham · Threat by half + own threat 0.15 → 0.96 xG, opponents 0.36 → 0.33
Sat 12 Sep away vs Tottenham · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Sat 12 Sep away vs Tottenham · Shooting accuracy + 3/12 shots on target (25 %)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Tottenham · Discipline + 2 cards, 8 fouls
Sat 12 Sep away vs Tottenham · Duels + 57 % of duels won (54/95)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Tottenham · Possession and duels − possession 38 %, duels 57 %
Sat 12 Sep away vs Tottenham · Set pieces + 6 corners, 5 conceded
Sat 12 Sep away vs Tottenham · Own box + 8 shots against from inside the box (14 in total)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Tottenham · Box pressure + 9/12 shots from inside the box
Hypothesis 1 · Set pieces State · closed · 7 matches
Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.
Supports
+ Sat 17.10. home vs Chelsea: 5 corners, 7 conceded
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Tottenham: 6 corners, 5 conceded
Challenges
− Sun 6.9. home vs Manchester United: 4 corners, 3 conceded
− Sun 11.10. away vs Hull City: 6 corners, 7 conceded
− Sat 29.8. away vs Bournemouth: 7 corners, 10 conceded
− Sat 22.8. home vs Crystal Palace: 4 corners, 0 conceded
− Sat 19.9. home vs Ipswich: 4 corners, 4 conceded
Weakens in close periods: 2.6 corners per 45 min, league 8/20 (14 periods). Part of the number comes from the game state.
Last season 4.3 corners in the match, 5.1 against
Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?
Hypothesis 2 · Shooting accuracy State · closed · 8 matches
Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.
Supports
+ Sat 19.9. home vs Ipswich: 2/21 shots on target (10 %)
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Tottenham: 3/12 shots on target (25 %)
Challenges
− Sun 6.9. home vs Manchester United: 6/18 shots on target (33 %)
− Sun 11.10. away vs Hull City: 7/15 shots on target (47 %)
− Sat 29.8. away vs Bournemouth: 7/13 shots on target (54 %)
− Sat 24.10. away vs Arsenal: 3/8 shots on target (38 %)
− Sat 22.8. home vs Crystal Palace: 5/16 shots on target (31 %)
− Sat 17.10. home vs Chelsea: 5/6 shots on target (83 %)
Last season 34 % of shots on target (144 / 420)
Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?
Hypothesis 3 · Possession and duels State · closed · 8 matches
Possession may not be matched by duel wins.
Supports
No longer backed by the evidence.
Challenges
− Sun 6.9. home vs Manchester United: possession 45 %, duels 56 %
− Sun 11.10. away vs Hull City: possession 65 %, duels 61 %
− Sat 29.8. away vs Bournemouth: possession 42 %, duels 44 %
− Sat 24.10. away vs Arsenal: possession 42 %, duels 54 %
− Sat 22.8. home vs Crystal Palace: possession 42 %, duels 54 %
− Sat 19.9. home vs Ipswich: possession 52 %, duels 53 %
− Sat 17.10. home vs Chelsea: possession 47 %, duels 43 %
− Sat 12.9. away vs Tottenham: possession 38 %, duels 57 %
Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?
Hypothesis 4 · Defensive line State · closed · 4 matches
The defence appears to hold a high line.
Supports
No longer backed by the evidence.
Challenges
− Sat 29.8. away vs Bournemouth: 0 offsides won
− Sat 24.10. away vs Arsenal: 0 offsides won
− Sat 22.8. home vs Crystal Palace: 0 offsides won
− Sat 19.9. home vs Ipswich: 0 offsides won
Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?
Line: deep line: the offside trap sprang only 5 times (20./20)
Progression: progression mid-table: 31.3 passes per shot, possession 47 %
Set pieces: in attack 39 corners (league 8./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 48 corners against (2./20), no headed goals conceded
Second half: output weighted to the second half (2+6 goals); own end leaks late (concessions 2+7); own threat rose in the second half in 4 of 8 matches (median −0.04 xG, league +0.15); opponents' threat rose in the second half in 4 of 8 matches (median +0.04 xG, league +0.15); first substitution on average at minute 66
When leading: killed the game: led at half-time 2 times, the opponent's threat fell in the second half and the lead held to a win (opponent xG in matches where they led 2.51 → 0.97)
Game state: Leading 18 % of playing time, level 51 %, trailing 31 %.
The duels carry: 53 % of duels won (395/751), league 1./20
We track whether the duel wins hold as opponents change their approach.
The lead held to the end: The lead was kept more often than lost and the opponents' threat fell in the second half (xG in the 2nd half below the 1st)
We track whether the lead holds against stronger opponents and whether the opponents' threat keeps falling in the 2nd half.
| Finishing goals vs xG | Chance creation assists vs xA | |
| Defenders | +2.1 | 0 |
| Midfield | −1.0 | +0.5 |
| Forwards | +0.4 | −2.5 |
TEAM IDENTITY
Home ground
Goodison Park was built in 1892, England's first purpose-built football stadium.
source: Everton FC (evertonfc.com), History of Goodison ParkTEAM MEMORY
Everton voittaa Cup Winners' Cupin Rotterdamissa 3-1 Rapid Wienista.
source: Everton FC (evertonfc.com), Kendall's Everton Claim Cup Winners' Cup