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THE SQUAD
● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 8
NEXT CHECK
LAST MATCH
Coventry – Fulham 0–1 (half-time 0–0) · goals: Bobb
PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT
No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.
Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Fulham shoot this season 14.7 times per match (7th in the league, last season 12.7 and 10th in the league), Coventry: 17.4 shots conceded (league 18.). The match's shot count tells which number held.
What happened: the defence won: 12 shots (baseline 14.7, opponent concedes 17.4).
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Fulham score this season from 6.8 percent of their shots (18th in the league, last season 9.8 and 18th in the league), Coventry: save percentage on shots on target 57.6 (league 18.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created.
What happened: the finishing held: 1 goals from 0.61 expected (+0.39), 8 % of shots scored.
Third: Set pieces. Fulham win this season 6.1 corners per match (3rd in the league, last season 5.0 and 10th in the league), Coventry: 4.7 corners conceded (league 9.). The expectation is at least 5 corners.
What happened: expectation met: 6 corners (expected 5), 1 goals.
Fourth: Attacking inefficiency. 7 goals from 10.95 expected (xG), a gap of -3.95, league 18./20
What happened: observation stayed open, 1 goals from 0.61 xG (+0.39).
One more: Set pieces without output. 43 corners (league 3./20) and 7 goals
What happened: observation did not repeat, 6 corners and 1 goals.
Finally: Player pick. Alex Iwobi is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 23.6 points on average in 7 matches, top three 4 times.
What happened: Player pick did not hold: Alex Iwobi ranked 9/16 in his team's match ratings. Match score 15, season average before the match 23.6.
And: Style of play. Patient build-up: 39 passes per shot (league's 4. most).
What happened: Style claim held: 54.8 passes per shot (league level 32.6).
From this match: 3/6 held
Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.
MANAGER'S CORNER · FANTASY
Last 5 matches: xGI 3.2, only 0 goals and assists ●
In 645 similar past cases, 61 % scored or assisted within the next 3 matches (all regular players 52 %) ●
Last 5 matches: xGI 2.4, only 0 goals and assists ●
Last 5 matches: xGI 2.6, only 1 goals and assists ●
Creating chances Last 4 matches: key passes 13 · xA 1.79 · assists 0 ●
Last 5 matches: xGI 2.1, only 1 goals and assists ●
TEAM BASELINE
Left after the 2025-26 season: Harry Wilson (2674 min, goals+assists 10+9, 23 % of the team's goals, now Leeds); Raúl (2183 min, goals+assists 9+5, 21 % of the team's goals, no longer in a league squad); Saša Lukić (1730 min, goals+assists 1+4, 2 % of the team's goals, now Ipswich); Samuel Chukwueze (1067 min, goals+assists 3+4, 7 % of the team's goals, no longer in a league squad).
New starters: Gonzalo (8 starts, from outside the league); Shea Charles (6 starts, from outside the league); David Affengruber (5 starts, from outside the league); César Palacios (3 starts, from outside the league) and 1 more.
The team reaches the box: 11/12 shots from inside the box (Sun 20.9. home vs Manchester United).
Last quarter hour · Fulham dropped 4 points after the 75th minute.
The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.
+ Sun 20.9. home vs Manchester United: 11/12 shots from inside the box
Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?
Holds up across game states: in close periods 5.2 shots from inside the box per 45 min, league 3/20 (16 periods).
Last season 12.7 shots in the match (no box split from last season, so the comparison is shot count)
Hypothesis 2 · Discipline State · strengthening · 7 matches
The cost of indiscipline may rise.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. away vs Sunderland: 2 cards, 15 fouls
+ Sun 20.9. home vs Manchester United: 3 cards, 9 fouls
+ Mon 24.8. home vs Chelsea: 2 cards, 12 fouls
+ Sat 24.10. away vs Coventry: 2 cards, 11 fouls
+ Sat 17.10. home vs Hull City: 3 cards, 13 fouls
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Ipswich: 4 cards, 10 fouls
Challenges
− Sat 12.9. away vs Liverpool: 1 cards, 8 fouls
Last season 2.0 cards and 10.9 fouls in the match
Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?
Hypothesis 3 · Own box State · strengthening · 8 matches
Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. away vs Sunderland: 9 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
+ Sun 20.9. home vs Manchester United: 17 shots against from inside the box (29 in total)
+ Mon 24.8. home vs Chelsea: 13 shots against from inside the box (18 in total)
+ Sat 24.10. away vs Coventry: 8 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Liverpool: 9 shots against from inside the box (14 in total)
Challenges
− Sat 5.9. home vs Crystal Palace: 7 shots against from inside the box (10 in total)
− Sat 17.10. home vs Hull City: 1 shots against from inside the box (5 in total)
− Sat 10.10. away vs Ipswich: 7 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)
Last season 11.8 shots against in the match (no box split)
Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?
Hypothesis 4 · Finishing State · strengthening · 6 matches
Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. away vs Sunderland: 0 goals from 0.79 expected (-0.79)
+ Sun 20.9. home vs Manchester United: 1 goals from 1.62 expected (-0.62)
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Crystal Palace: 2 goals from 3.14 expected (-1.14)
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Liverpool: 0 goals from 0.70 expected (-0.70)
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Ipswich: 1 goals from 1.87 expected (-0.87)
Challenges
− Mon 24.8. home vs Chelsea: 2 goals from 1.35 expected (+0.65)
Holds up across game states: in close periods 3.6 goals below expected (xG), league 17/20 (16 periods).
Last season 1.2 goals and 12.7 shots in the match, 10 % of shots scored
Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?
Hypothesis 5 · Possession and duels State · mixed · 8 matches
Possession may not be matched by duel wins.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. away vs Sunderland: possession 58 %, duels 43 %
+ Mon 24.8. home vs Chelsea: possession 61 %, duels 47 %
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Crystal Palace: possession 64 %, duels 45 %
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Ipswich: possession 52 %, duels 49 %
Challenges
− Sun 20.9. home vs Manchester United: possession 42 %, duels 49 %
− Sat 24.10. away vs Coventry: possession 64 %, duels 54 %
− Sat 17.10. home vs Hull City: possession 76 %, duels 55 %
− Sat 12.9. away vs Liverpool: possession 44 %, duels 48 %
Holds up across game states: in close periods 58 % possession, league 5/20 (16 periods).
Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?
Hypothesis 6 · Defensive line State · mixed · 3 matches
The defence appears to hold a high line.
Supports
+ Mon 24.8. home vs Chelsea: 3 offsides won
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Crystal Palace: 6 offsides won
Challenges
− Sat 10.10. away vs Ipswich: 0 offsides won
Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?
Sun 30 Aug away vs Sunderland · Finishing + 0 goals from 0.79 expected (-0.79)
Sun 30 Aug away vs Sunderland · Threat by half − own threat 0.46 → 0.32 xG, opponents 0.07 → 1.69
Sun 30 Aug away vs Sunderland · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sun 30 Aug away vs Sunderland · Shooting accuracy + 0/9 shots on target (0 %)
Sun 30 Aug away vs Sunderland · Discipline + 2 cards, 15 fouls
Sun 30 Aug away vs Sunderland · Duels − 43 % of duels won (42/97)
Sun 30 Aug away vs Sunderland · Possession and duels + possession 58 %, duels 43 %
Sun 30 Aug away vs Sunderland · Own box + 9 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
Sun 20 Sep home vs Manchester United · Finishing + 1 goals from 1.62 expected (-0.62)
Sun 20 Sep home vs Manchester United · Threat by half − own threat 1.49 → 0.13 xG, opponents 1.06 → 0.54
Sun 20 Sep home vs Manchester United · Goalkeeper + 5 saves
Sun 20 Sep home vs Manchester United · Shooting accuracy − 6/12 shots on target (50 %)
Sun 20 Sep home vs Manchester United · Discipline + 3 cards, 9 fouls
Sun 20 Sep home vs Manchester United · Duels − 49 % of duels won (34/69)
Sun 20 Sep home vs Manchester United · Possession and duels − possession 42 %, duels 49 %
Sun 20 Sep home vs Manchester United · Set pieces − 3 corners, 13 conceded
Sun 20 Sep home vs Manchester United · Own box + 17 shots against from inside the box (29 in total)
Sun 20 Sep home vs Manchester United · Box pressure + 11/12 shots from inside the box
Mon 24 Aug home vs Chelsea · Finishing − 2 goals from 1.35 expected (+0.65)
Mon 24 Aug home vs Chelsea · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Mon 24 Aug home vs Chelsea · Shooting accuracy − 6/14 shots on target (43 %)
Mon 24 Aug home vs Chelsea · Defensive line + 3 offsides won
Mon 24 Aug home vs Chelsea · Discipline + 2 cards, 12 fouls
Mon 24 Aug home vs Chelsea · Duels − 47 % of duels won (49/104)
Mon 24 Aug home vs Chelsea · Possession and duels + possession 61 %, duels 47 %
Mon 24 Aug home vs Chelsea · Set pieces − 6 corners, 4 conceded
Mon 24 Aug home vs Chelsea · Own box + 13 shots against from inside the box (18 in total)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Finishing + 2 goals from 3.14 expected (-1.14)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Sat 5 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Shooting accuracy + 6/25 shots on target (24 %)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Defensive line + 6 offsides won
Sat 5 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Duels − 45 % of duels won (36/80)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Possession and duels + possession 64 %, duels 45 %
Sat 5 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Set pieces − 7 corners, 1 conceded
Sat 5 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Own box − 7 shots against from inside the box (10 in total)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Box pressure + 22/25 shots from inside the box
Sat 24 Oct away vs Coventry · Threat by half − own threat 0.36 → 0.25 xG, opponents 0.31 → 0.27
Sat 24 Oct away vs Coventry · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Sat 24 Oct away vs Coventry · Shooting accuracy + 3/12 shots on target (25 %)
Sat 24 Oct away vs Coventry · Discipline + 2 cards, 11 fouls
Sat 24 Oct away vs Coventry · Duels + 54 % of duels won (49/90)
Sat 24 Oct away vs Coventry · Possession and duels − possession 64 %, duels 54 %
Sat 24 Oct away vs Coventry · Set pieces − 6 corners, 4 conceded
Sat 24 Oct away vs Coventry · Own box + 8 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
Sat 24 Oct away vs Coventry · Box pressure + 8/12 shots from inside the box
Sat 17 Oct home vs Hull City · Threat by half + own threat 0.61 → 0.87 xG, opponents 0.07 → 0.11
Sat 17 Oct home vs Hull City · Goalkeeper − 0 saves
Sat 17 Oct home vs Hull City · Shooting accuracy − 6/18 shots on target (33 %)
Sat 17 Oct home vs Hull City · Discipline + 3 cards, 13 fouls
Sat 17 Oct home vs Hull City · Duels + 55 % of duels won (54/98)
Sat 17 Oct home vs Hull City · Possession and duels − possession 76 %, duels 55 %
Sat 17 Oct home vs Hull City · Set pieces − 10 corners, 2 conceded
Sat 17 Oct home vs Hull City · Own box − 1 shots against from inside the box (5 in total)
Sat 17 Oct home vs Hull City · Box pressure + 13/18 shots from inside the box
Sat 12 Sep away vs Liverpool · Finishing + 0 goals from 0.70 expected (-0.70)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Liverpool · Threat by half − own threat 0.40 → 0.30 xG, opponents 0.52 → 0.76
Sat 12 Sep away vs Liverpool · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sat 12 Sep away vs Liverpool · Shooting accuracy − 4/10 shots on target (40 %)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Liverpool · Discipline − 1 cards, 8 fouls
Sat 12 Sep away vs Liverpool · Duels − 48 % of duels won (35/73)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Liverpool · Possession and duels − possession 44 %, duels 48 %
Sat 12 Sep away vs Liverpool · Set pieces + 8 corners, 5 conceded
Sat 12 Sep away vs Liverpool · Own box + 9 shots against from inside the box (14 in total)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Liverpool · Box pressure + 8/10 shots from inside the box
Sat 10 Oct away vs Ipswich · Finishing + 1 goals from 1.87 expected (-0.87)
Sat 10 Oct away vs Ipswich · Threat by half + own threat 0.48 → 1.39 xG, opponents 0.11 → 1.11
Sat 10 Oct away vs Ipswich · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sat 10 Oct away vs Ipswich · Shooting accuracy − 5/13 shots on target (38 %)
Sat 10 Oct away vs Ipswich · Defensive line − 0 offsides won
Sat 10 Oct away vs Ipswich · Discipline + 4 cards, 10 fouls
Sat 10 Oct away vs Ipswich · Duels − 49 % of duels won (44/89)
Sat 10 Oct away vs Ipswich · Possession and duels + possession 52 %, duels 49 %
Sat 10 Oct away vs Ipswich · Set pieces − 5 corners, 2 conceded
Sat 10 Oct away vs Ipswich · Own box − 7 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)
Sat 10 Oct away vs Ipswich · Box pressure + 9/13 shots from inside the box
Hypothesis 1 · Shooting accuracy State · closed · 8 matches
Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. away vs Sunderland: 0/9 shots on target (0 %)
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Crystal Palace: 6/25 shots on target (24 %)
+ Sat 24.10. away vs Coventry: 3/12 shots on target (25 %)
Challenges
− Sun 20.9. home vs Manchester United: 6/12 shots on target (50 %)
− Mon 24.8. home vs Chelsea: 6/14 shots on target (43 %)
− Sat 17.10. home vs Hull City: 6/18 shots on target (33 %)
− Sat 12.9. away vs Liverpool: 4/10 shots on target (40 %)
− Sat 10.10. away vs Ipswich: 5/13 shots on target (38 %)
Does not stand out in close periods: 32 % of shots on target, league 11/20 (16 periods). The game state explains the number at least in part.
Last season 29 % of shots on target (138 / 481)
Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?
Hypothesis 2 · Threat by half State · closed · 6 matches
The threat appears weighted towards the second half.
Supports
+ Sat 17.10. home vs Hull City: own threat 0.61 → 0.87 xG, opponents 0.07 → 0.11
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Ipswich: own threat 0.48 → 1.39 xG, opponents 0.11 → 1.11
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. away vs Sunderland: own threat 0.46 → 0.32 xG, opponents 0.07 → 1.69
− Sun 20.9. home vs Manchester United: own threat 1.49 → 0.13 xG, opponents 1.06 → 0.54
− Sat 24.10. away vs Coventry: own threat 0.36 → 0.25 xG, opponents 0.31 → 0.27
− Sat 12.9. away vs Liverpool: own threat 0.40 → 0.30 xG, opponents 0.52 → 0.76
Last season 62 % of goals came in the second half (29 / 47)
Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?
Hypothesis 3 · Duels State · closed · 8 matches
Duels appear to carry this team's game.
Supports
+ Sat 24.10. away vs Coventry: 54 % of duels won (49/90)
+ Sat 17.10. home vs Hull City: 55 % of duels won (54/98)
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. away vs Sunderland: 43 % of duels won (42/97)
− Sun 20.9. home vs Manchester United: 49 % of duels won (34/69)
− Mon 24.8. home vs Chelsea: 47 % of duels won (49/104)
− Sat 5.9. home vs Crystal Palace: 45 % of duels won (36/80)
− Sat 12.9. away vs Liverpool: 48 % of duels won (35/73)
− Sat 10.10. away vs Ipswich: 49 % of duels won (44/89)
Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?
Hypothesis 4 · Set pieces State · closed · 7 matches
Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.
Supports
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Liverpool: 8 corners, 5 conceded
Challenges
− Sun 20.9. home vs Manchester United: 3 corners, 13 conceded
− Mon 24.8. home vs Chelsea: 6 corners, 4 conceded
− Sat 5.9. home vs Crystal Palace: 7 corners, 1 conceded
− Sat 24.10. away vs Coventry: 6 corners, 4 conceded
− Sat 17.10. home vs Hull City: 10 corners, 2 conceded
− Sat 10.10. away vs Ipswich: 5 corners, 2 conceded
Holds up across game states: in close periods 3.1 corners per 45 min, league 3/20 (16 periods).
Last season 4.9 corners in the match, 5.5 against
Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?
Hypothesis 5 · Goalkeeper State · closed · 8 matches
The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.
Supports
+ Sun 20.9. home vs Manchester United: 5 saves
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. away vs Sunderland: 3 saves
− Mon 24.8. home vs Chelsea: 3 saves
− Sat 5.9. home vs Crystal Palace: 2 saves
− Sat 24.10. away vs Coventry: 2 saves
− Sat 17.10. home vs Hull City: 0 saves
− Sat 12.9. away vs Liverpool: 3 saves
− Sat 10.10. away vs Ipswich: 3 saves
Last season 66 % of shots on target kept out (51 conceded / 149)
Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?
Line: line mid-level: 16 offsides drawn
Progression: progresses with control: 41.0 passes per shot (league 2./20 most), possession 58 %
Set pieces: in attack 49 corners (league 3./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 34 corners against (15./20), no headed goals conceded
Second half: own end leaks late (concessions 3+7); own threat rose in the second half in 3 of 8 matches (median −0.08 xG, league +0.15); opponents' threat rose in the second half in 5 of 8 matches (median +0.14 xG, league +0.15); first substitution on average at minute 68
When leading: lead held 1/2: led at half-time 2 times, and 1 of those leads did not hold to a win (opponent xG in matches where they led 0.37 → 1.78)
Game state: Leading 22 % of playing time, level 64 %, trailing 14 %.
Attacking inefficiency: 8 goals from 11.56 expected (xG), a gap of -3.56, league 17./20
We track whether the finishing corrects or the deficit continues: the same metric is read after every round.
Holds up across game states: in close periods 3.6 goals below expected (xG), league 17/20 (16 periods).
Set pieces without output: 49 corners (league 3./20) and 8 goals
We track whether set pieces start producing goals or the pressure stays barren.
Holds up across game states: in close periods 3.1 corners per 45 min, league 3/20 (16 periods).
| Finishing goals vs xG | Chance creation assists vs xA | |
| Defenders | −1.3 | −5.9 |
| Midfield | +3.0 | +3.1 |
| Forwards | −4.4 | +2.1 |
TEAM IDENTITY
Home ground
Fulham played their first official match at Craven Cottage on 10.10.1896.
source: Wikipedia, Craven CottageTEAM CULTURE
Klassinen Fulham
Quiet confidence.Signals · approved by the desk
TEAM MEMORY
Fulham St Andrew's Church Sunday School founds the club.
source: Fulham FC (fulhamfc.com), club history