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Ipswich
THE SQUAD
● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 8
NEXT CHECK
LAST MATCH
Ipswich – Nott'm Forest 1–1 (half-time 1–1) · goals: Enciso
PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT
No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.
Starting shape on the team sheet 4-2-3-1, in the previous match 3-4-2-1. The team sheet does not show the in-game shape, such as a back five without the ball.
Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Ipswich shoot this season 11.0 times per match (17th in the league, not in the Premier League last season), Nott'm Forest: 10.6 shots conceded (league 2.). The match's shot count tells which number held.
What happened: the defence won: 7 shots (baseline 11.0, opponent concedes 10.6).
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Ipswich score this season from 14.3 percent of their shots (4th in the league, not in the Premier League last season), Nott'm Forest: save percentage on shots on target 60.9 (league 16.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created.
What happened: the finishing held: 1 goals from 0.49 expected (+0.51), 14 % of shots scored.
Third: Set pieces. Ipswich win this season 3.3 corners per match (18th in the league, not in the Premier League last season), Nott'm Forest: 4.9 corners conceded (league 8.). The expectation is at least 3 corners.
What happened: fell short of expectation: 0 corners (expected 3), 1 goals.
Fourth: Opponents get into the box. 75 shots against from inside the box (2nd most of 20), 118 shots in total (64 % from the box)
What happened: observation repeated, 15 shots against from inside the box.
One more: Player pick. Emersonn is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 19.7 points on average in 6 matches, top three 2 times.
What happened: Player pick did not hold: Emersonn ranked 10/16 in his team's match ratings. Match score 5, season average before the match 19.7.
Finally: Style of play. Plays without the ball: possession 43 % (league's 3. lowest); space comes from transitions.
What happened: Style claim held: possession 49 % (league level 50 %).
From this match: 3/6 held
Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.
TEAM BASELINE
The box has been reached too easily: 19 shots against from inside the box (33 in total) (Sun 30.8. away vs Manchester United).
Last quarter hour · Ipswich gained 7 points after the 75th minute.
Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.
+ Sun 30.8. away vs Manchester United: 19 shots against from inside the box (33 in total)
− Fri 4.9. home vs Liverpool: 5 shots against from inside the box (10 in total)
Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?
Evidence in detail
Holds up across game states: in close periods 5.2 shots conceded from inside the box per 45 min, league 3/20 (12 periods).
Other tracked hypotheses (3)
Hypothesis 2 · Discipline State · strengthening · 8 matches
The cost of indiscipline may rise.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. away vs Manchester United: 3 cards, 12 fouls
+ Sat 19.9. away vs Everton: 4 cards, 12 fouls
+ Sat 17.10. away vs Manchester City: 2 cards, 16 fouls
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Crystal Palace: 3 cards, 16 fouls
+ Sat 10.10. home vs Fulham: 2 cards, 8 fouls
Challenges
− Fri 4.9. home vs Liverpool: 1 cards, 6 fouls
− Fri 23.10. home vs Nottingham Forest: 1 cards, 9 fouls
− Sat 22.8. home vs Sunderland: 0 cards, 12 fouls
Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?
Hypothesis 3 · Box pressure State · strengthening · 4 matches
The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.
Supports
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Sunderland: 8/10 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 19.9. away vs Everton: 9/13 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Crystal Palace: 8/12 shots from inside the box
Challenges
− Fri 23.10. home vs Nottingham Forest: 3/7 shots from inside the box
Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?
Hypothesis 4 · Defensive line State · mixed · 4 matches
The defence appears to hold a high line.
Supports
+ Fri 4.9. home vs Liverpool: 4 offsides won
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Sunderland: 4 offsides won
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. away vs Manchester United: 0 offsides won
− Sat 12.9. away vs Crystal Palace: 0 offsides won
Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?
Show 70 findings
Sun 30 Aug away vs Manchester United · Goalkeeper + 7 saves
Sun 30 Aug away vs Manchester United · Shooting accuracy − 5/9 shots on target (56 %)
Sun 30 Aug away vs Manchester United · Defensive line − 0 offsides won
Sun 30 Aug away vs Manchester United · Discipline + 3 cards, 12 fouls
Sun 30 Aug away vs Manchester United · Duels − 34 % of duels won (29/85)
Sun 30 Aug away vs Manchester United · Possession and duels − possession 40 %, duels 34 %
Sun 30 Aug away vs Manchester United · Set pieces − 4 corners, 8 conceded
Sun 30 Aug away vs Manchester United · Own box + 19 shots against from inside the box (33 in total)
Fri 4 Sep home vs Liverpool · Finishing + 0 goals from 0.75 expected (-0.75)
Fri 4 Sep home vs Liverpool · Threat by half − own threat 0.51 → 0.25 xG, opponents 0.42 → 0.26
Fri 4 Sep home vs Liverpool · Goalkeeper + 5 saves
Fri 4 Sep home vs Liverpool · Shooting accuracy − 5/14 shots on target (36 %)
Fri 4 Sep home vs Liverpool · Defensive line + 4 offsides won
Fri 4 Sep home vs Liverpool · Discipline − 1 cards, 6 fouls
Fri 4 Sep home vs Liverpool · Duels − 45 % of duels won (40/89)
Fri 4 Sep home vs Liverpool · Possession and duels − possession 45 %, duels 45 %
Fri 4 Sep home vs Liverpool · Own box − 5 shots against from inside the box (10 in total)
Fri 23 Oct home vs Nottingham Forest · Finishing − 1 goals from 0.49 expected (+0.51)
Fri 23 Oct home vs Nottingham Forest · Threat by half − own threat 0.42 → 0.07 xG, opponents 1.40 → 0.93
Fri 23 Oct home vs Nottingham Forest · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Fri 23 Oct home vs Nottingham Forest · Shooting accuracy − 3/7 shots on target (43 %)
Fri 23 Oct home vs Nottingham Forest · Discipline − 1 cards, 9 fouls
Fri 23 Oct home vs Nottingham Forest · Duels − 48 % of duels won (46/95)
Fri 23 Oct home vs Nottingham Forest · Possession and duels − possession 49 %, duels 48 %
Fri 23 Oct home vs Nottingham Forest · Own box + 15 shots against from inside the box (17 in total)
Fri 23 Oct home vs Nottingham Forest · Box pressure − 3/7 shots from inside the box
Sat 22 Aug home vs Sunderland · Threat by half − own threat 0.95 → 0.79 xG, opponents 0.58 → 0.17
Sat 22 Aug home vs Sunderland · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Sat 22 Aug home vs Sunderland · Shooting accuracy + 3/10 shots on target (30 %)
Sat 22 Aug home vs Sunderland · Defensive line + 4 offsides won
Sat 22 Aug home vs Sunderland · Discipline − 0 cards, 12 fouls
Sat 22 Aug home vs Sunderland · Duels + 54 % of duels won (62/114)
Sat 22 Aug home vs Sunderland · Possession and duels − possession 38 %, duels 54 %
Sat 22 Aug home vs Sunderland · Set pieces − 3 corners, 5 conceded
Sat 22 Aug home vs Sunderland · Own box − 5 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)
Sat 22 Aug home vs Sunderland · Box pressure + 8/10 shots from inside the box
Sat 19 Sep away vs Everton · Finishing + 0 goals from 1.44 expected (-1.44)
Sat 19 Sep away vs Everton · Threat by half − own threat 0.86 → 0.58 xG, opponents 1.30 → 0.93
Sat 19 Sep away vs Everton · Goalkeeper − 1 saves
Sat 19 Sep away vs Everton · Shooting accuracy − 4/13 shots on target (31 %)
Sat 19 Sep away vs Everton · Discipline + 4 cards, 12 fouls
Sat 19 Sep away vs Everton · Duels − 47 % of duels won (41/87)
Sat 19 Sep away vs Everton · Possession and duels − possession 48 %, duels 47 %
Sat 19 Sep away vs Everton · Own box + 13 shots against from inside the box (21 in total)
Sat 19 Sep away vs Everton · Box pressure + 9/13 shots from inside the box
Sat 17 Oct away vs Manchester City · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Sat 17 Oct away vs Manchester City · Shooting accuracy − 3/8 shots on target (38 %)
Sat 17 Oct away vs Manchester City · Discipline + 2 cards, 16 fouls
Sat 17 Oct away vs Manchester City · Duels + 52 % of duels won (52/100)
Sat 17 Oct away vs Manchester City · Possession and duels − possession 30 %, duels 52 %
Sat 17 Oct away vs Manchester City · Set pieces − 3 corners, 2 conceded
Sat 17 Oct away vs Manchester City · Own box + 15 shots against from inside the box (19 in total)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Crystal Palace · Finishing − 3 goals from 1.67 expected (+1.33)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Crystal Palace · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Sat 12 Sep away vs Crystal Palace · Shooting accuracy − 6/12 shots on target (50 %)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Crystal Palace · Defensive line − 0 offsides won
Sat 12 Sep away vs Crystal Palace · Discipline + 3 cards, 16 fouls
Sat 12 Sep away vs Crystal Palace · Duels − 44 % of duels won (39/89)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Crystal Palace · Possession and duels + possession 53 %, duels 44 %
Sat 12 Sep away vs Crystal Palace · Set pieces − 3 corners, 6 conceded
Sat 12 Sep away vs Crystal Palace · Own box + 9 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Crystal Palace · Box pressure + 8/12 shots from inside the box
Sat 10 Oct home vs Fulham · Finishing − 2 goals from 1.22 expected (+0.78)
Sat 10 Oct home vs Fulham · Threat by half + own threat 0.11 → 1.11 xG, opponents 0.48 → 1.39
Sat 10 Oct home vs Fulham · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sat 10 Oct home vs Fulham · Shooting accuracy − 5/11 shots on target (45 %)
Sat 10 Oct home vs Fulham · Discipline + 2 cards, 8 fouls
Sat 10 Oct home vs Fulham · Duels − 51 % of duels won (45/89)
Sat 10 Oct home vs Fulham · Possession and duels − possession 48 %, duels 51 %
Sat 10 Oct home vs Fulham · Own box + 9 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
Suljetut hypoteesit (7)
Hypothesis 1 · Goalkeeper State · closed · 8 matches
The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. away vs Manchester United: 7 saves
+ Fri 4.9. home vs Liverpool: 5 saves
+ Sat 17.10. away vs Manchester City: 4 saves
Challenges
− Fri 23.10. home vs Nottingham Forest: 3 saves
− Sat 22.8. home vs Sunderland: 2 saves
− Sat 19.9. away vs Everton: 1 saves
− Sat 12.9. away vs Crystal Palace: 2 saves
− Sat 10.10. home vs Fulham: 3 saves
Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?
Hypothesis 2 · Finishing State · closed · 5 matches
Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.
Supports
+ Fri 4.9. home vs Liverpool: 0 goals from 0.75 expected (-0.75)
+ Sat 19.9. away vs Everton: 0 goals from 1.44 expected (-1.44)
Challenges
− Fri 23.10. home vs Nottingham Forest: 1 goals from 0.49 expected (+0.51)
− Sat 12.9. away vs Crystal Palace: 3 goals from 1.67 expected (+1.33)
− Sat 10.10. home vs Fulham: 2 goals from 1.22 expected (+0.78)
Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?
Hypothesis 3 · Duels State · closed · 8 matches
Duels appear to carry this team's game.
Supports
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Sunderland: 54 % of duels won (62/114)
+ Sat 17.10. away vs Manchester City: 52 % of duels won (52/100)
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. away vs Manchester United: 34 % of duels won (29/85)
− Fri 4.9. home vs Liverpool: 45 % of duels won (40/89)
− Fri 23.10. home vs Nottingham Forest: 48 % of duels won (46/95)
− Sat 19.9. away vs Everton: 47 % of duels won (41/87)
− Sat 12.9. away vs Crystal Palace: 44 % of duels won (39/89)
− Sat 10.10. home vs Fulham: 51 % of duels won (45/89)
Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?
Hypothesis 4 · Threat by half State · closed · 5 matches
The threat appears weighted towards the second half.
Supports
+ Sat 10.10. home vs Fulham: own threat 0.11 → 1.11 xG, opponents 0.48 → 1.39
Challenges
− Fri 4.9. home vs Liverpool: own threat 0.51 → 0.25 xG, opponents 0.42 → 0.26
− Fri 23.10. home vs Nottingham Forest: own threat 0.42 → 0.07 xG, opponents 1.40 → 0.93
− Sat 22.8. home vs Sunderland: own threat 0.95 → 0.79 xG, opponents 0.58 → 0.17
− Sat 19.9. away vs Everton: own threat 0.86 → 0.58 xG, opponents 1.30 → 0.93
Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?
Hypothesis 5 · Possession and duels State · closed · 8 matches
Possession may not be matched by duel wins.
Supports
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Crystal Palace: possession 53 %, duels 44 %
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. away vs Manchester United: possession 40 %, duels 34 %
− Fri 4.9. home vs Liverpool: possession 45 %, duels 45 %
− Fri 23.10. home vs Nottingham Forest: possession 49 %, duels 48 %
− Sat 22.8. home vs Sunderland: possession 38 %, duels 54 %
− Sat 19.9. away vs Everton: possession 48 %, duels 47 %
− Sat 17.10. away vs Manchester City: possession 30 %, duels 52 %
− Sat 10.10. home vs Fulham: possession 48 %, duels 51 %
Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?
Hypothesis 6 · Shooting accuracy State · closed · 8 matches
Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.
Supports
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Sunderland: 3/10 shots on target (30 %)
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. away vs Manchester United: 5/9 shots on target (56 %)
− Fri 4.9. home vs Liverpool: 5/14 shots on target (36 %)
− Fri 23.10. home vs Nottingham Forest: 3/7 shots on target (43 %)
− Sat 19.9. away vs Everton: 4/13 shots on target (31 %)
− Sat 17.10. away vs Manchester City: 3/8 shots on target (38 %)
− Sat 12.9. away vs Crystal Palace: 6/12 shots on target (50 %)
− Sat 10.10. home vs Fulham: 5/11 shots on target (45 %)
Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?
Hypothesis 7 · Set pieces State · closed · 4 matches
Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.
Supports
No longer backed by the evidence.
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. away vs Manchester United: 4 corners, 8 conceded
− Sat 22.8. home vs Sunderland: 3 corners, 5 conceded
− Sat 17.10. away vs Manchester City: 3 corners, 2 conceded
− Sat 12.9. away vs Crystal Palace: 3 corners, 6 conceded
Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?
Measured numbers for the season
Line: line mid-level: 13 offsides drawn
Progression: progression mid-table: 39.2 passes per shot, possession 44 %
Set pieces: in attack 23 corners (league 20./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 38 corners against (9./20), no headed goals conceded
Second half: own end tightens late (concessions 9+7); own threat rose in the second half in 3 of 8 matches (median −0.16 xG, league +0.15); opponents' threat rose in the second half in 4 of 8 matches (median +0.02 xG, league +0.15); first substitution on average at minute 62
When leading: withstood the pressure: led at half-time once and won, although the opponent's threat grew (opponent xG vs Crystal Palace 0.20 → 0.41)
Game state: Leading 8 % of playing time, level 47 %, trailing 45 %. League rank 2 for time trailing, so the season numbers lean towards chasing the game.
Opponents get into the box: 90 shots against from inside the box (2nd most of 20), 135 shots in total (67 % from the box)
We track whether the number of shots conceded in the box narrows: leaking the box predicts goals conceded over a longer sample.
Holds up across game states: in close periods 5.2 shots conceded from inside the box per 45 min, league 3/20 (12 periods).
TEAM MEMORY
No verified club memory for this date.