MY CLUB
”Marching On Together”, marching on together
THE SQUAD
● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 7
NEXT CHECK
LAST MATCH
Leeds – Man Utd 1–1 (half-time 0–1) · goals: Calvert-Lewin
PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT
No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.
Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Leeds shoot this season 12.0 times per match (14th in the league, last season 12.6 and 11th in the league), Man Utd: 10.8 shots conceded (league 3.). The match's shot count tells which number held.
What happened: the pressure held: 12 shots (baseline 12.0, opponent concedes 10.8).
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Leeds score this season from 11.1 percent of their shots (10th in the league, last season 10.2 and 16th in the league), Man Utd: save percentage on shots on target 65.4 (league 10.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created.
What happened: goalkeeping and finishing beat the team: 1 goals from 1.48 expected (-0.48), 8 % of shots scored.
Third: Set pieces. Leeds win this season 4.3 corners per match (12th in the league, last season 4.4 and 15th in the league), Man Utd: 3.8 corners conceded (league 19.). The expectation is at least 4 corners.
What happened: fell short of expectation: 2 corners (expected 4), 1 goals.
Fourth: Goalkeeper level on show. 24 saves (league 2./20) against 1.50 xG
What happened: observation did not repeat, 2 saves.
One more: Player pick. James Trafford is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 22.0 points on average in 6 matches, top three 4 times.
What happened: Player pick did not hold: James Trafford ranked 5/13 in his team's match ratings. Match score 13, season average before the match 22.0.
Finally: Style of play. Progresses quickly: 31 passes per shot, the league's 3. most direct.
What happened: Style claim did not hold: 44.3 passes per shot (league level 35.1).
From this match: 1/6 held
Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.
MANAGER'S CORNER · FANTASY
Last 5 matches: xGI 1.7, only 0 goals and assists ●
In 645 similar past cases, 61 % scored or assisted within the next 3 matches (all regular players 52 %) ●
doubtful · 50 % · foot injury ▷
doubtful · 50 % · thigh injury ▷
injured · 0 % · hamstring injury · expected back 21/11 ▷
TEAM BASELINE
Left after the 2025-26 season: Pascal Struijk (2935 min, goals+assists 0+1, now Brighton); Karl Darlow (1980 min, goals+assists 0+0, now Man Utd).
New starters: Tarik Muharemović (7 starts, from outside the league); James Trafford (7 starts, came from Man City); Nico Elvedi (5 starts, from outside the league); Harry Wilson (1 start, came from Fulham).
The defensive line has been held high: 3 offsides for opponents (Sun 18.10. home vs Manchester United).
Last quarter hour · Leeds gained 3 points after the 75th minute.
The defence appears to hold a high line.
+ Sun 18.10. home vs Manchester United: 3 offsides won
− Sun 30.8. home vs Brentford: 0 offsides won
Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?
Hypothesis 2 · Duels State · strengthening · 7 matches
Duels appear to carry this team's game.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. home vs Brentford: 56 % of duels won (64/114)
+ Sun 20.9. home vs Crystal Palace: 56 % of duels won (57/101)
+ Mon 14.9. home vs Newcastle: 53 % of duels won (55/104)
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Brighton: 52 % of duels won (58/112)
+ Sat 22.8. away vs Nottingham Forest: 52 % of duels won (65/124)
Challenges
− Sun 18.10. home vs Manchester United: 47 % of duels won (47/101)
− Sat 10.10. away vs Arsenal: 45 % of duels won (45/100)
Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?
Hypothesis 3 · Goalkeeper State · strengthening · 7 matches
The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. home vs Brentford: 4 saves
+ Sun 20.9. home vs Crystal Palace: 5 saves
+ Mon 14.9. home vs Newcastle: 4 saves
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Brighton: 4 saves
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Arsenal: 4 saves
Challenges
− Sun 18.10. home vs Manchester United: 2 saves
− Sat 22.8. away vs Nottingham Forest: 3 saves
Last season 65 % of shots on target kept out (56 conceded / 162)
Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?
Hypothesis 4 · Box pressure State · strengthening · 4 matches
The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.
Supports
+ Sun 20.9. home vs Crystal Palace: 9/13 shots from inside the box
+ Sun 18.10. home vs Manchester United: 10/12 shots from inside the box
+ Mon 14.9. home vs Newcastle: 10/15 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Brighton: 10/10 shots from inside the box
Challenges
No counter-evidence yet.
Last season 12.6 shots in the match (no box split from last season, so the comparison is shot count)
Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?
Hypothesis 5 · Discipline State · strengthening · 7 matches
The cost of indiscipline may rise.
Supports
+ Sun 20.9. home vs Crystal Palace: 2 cards, 10 fouls
+ Sun 18.10. home vs Manchester United: 2 cards, 16 fouls
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Brighton: 3 cards, 16 fouls
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Arsenal: 4 cards, 20 fouls
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. home vs Brentford: 0 cards, 5 fouls
− Mon 14.9. home vs Newcastle: 1 cards, 8 fouls
− Sat 22.8. away vs Nottingham Forest: 1 cards, 14 fouls
Last season 1.7 cards and 10.5 fouls in the match
Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?
Hypothesis 6 · Finishing State · mixed · 4 matches
Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.
Supports
+ Sun 20.9. home vs Crystal Palace: 0 goals from 1.31 expected (-1.31)
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Brighton: 1 goals from 2.49 expected (-1.49)
Challenges
− Mon 14.9. home vs Newcastle: 4 goals from 2.08 expected (+1.92)
− Sat 22.8. away vs Nottingham Forest: 1 goals from 0.49 expected (+0.51)
Last season 1.3 goals and 12.6 shots in the match, 10 % of shots scored
Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?
Hypothesis 7 · Threat by half State · mixed · 2 matches
The threat appears weighted towards the second half.
Supports
+ Sun 20.9. home vs Crystal Palace: own threat 0.54 → 0.77 xG, opponents 0.18 → 0.88
Challenges
− Sat 10.10. away vs Arsenal: own threat 0.44 → 0.30 xG, opponents 0.45 → 2.21
Last season 51 % of goals came in the second half (25 / 49)
Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?
Sun 30 Aug home vs Brentford · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Sun 30 Aug home vs Brentford · Shooting accuracy + 2/13 shots on target (15 %)
Sun 30 Aug home vs Brentford · Defensive line − 0 offsides won
Sun 30 Aug home vs Brentford · Discipline − 0 cards, 5 fouls
Sun 30 Aug home vs Brentford · Duels + 56 % of duels won (64/114)
Sun 30 Aug home vs Brentford · Possession and duels − possession 47 %, duels 56 %
Sun 30 Aug home vs Brentford · Set pieces − 5 corners, 6 conceded
Sun 30 Aug home vs Brentford · Own box + 18 shots against from inside the box (22 in total)
Sun 20 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Finishing + 0 goals from 1.31 expected (-1.31)
Sun 20 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Threat by half + own threat 0.54 → 0.77 xG, opponents 0.18 → 0.88
Sun 20 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Goalkeeper + 5 saves
Sun 20 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Shooting accuracy + 2/13 shots on target (15 %)
Sun 20 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Discipline + 2 cards, 10 fouls
Sun 20 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Duels + 56 % of duels won (57/101)
Sun 20 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Possession and duels − possession 51 %, duels 56 %
Sun 20 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Own box − 4 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
Sun 20 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Box pressure + 9/13 shots from inside the box
Sun 18 Oct home vs Manchester United · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Sun 18 Oct home vs Manchester United · Shooting accuracy − 5/12 shots on target (42 %)
Sun 18 Oct home vs Manchester United · Defensive line + 3 offsides won
Sun 18 Oct home vs Manchester United · Discipline + 2 cards, 16 fouls
Sun 18 Oct home vs Manchester United · Duels − 47 % of duels won (47/101)
Sun 18 Oct home vs Manchester United · Possession and duels + possession 61 %, duels 47 %
Sun 18 Oct home vs Manchester United · Own box − 6 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
Sun 18 Oct home vs Manchester United · Box pressure + 10/12 shots from inside the box
Mon 14 Sep home vs Newcastle · Finishing − 4 goals from 2.08 expected (+1.92)
Mon 14 Sep home vs Newcastle · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Mon 14 Sep home vs Newcastle · Shooting accuracy − 6/15 shots on target (40 %)
Mon 14 Sep home vs Newcastle · Defensive line + 3 offsides won
Mon 14 Sep home vs Newcastle · Discipline − 1 cards, 8 fouls
Mon 14 Sep home vs Newcastle · Duels + 53 % of duels won (55/104)
Mon 14 Sep home vs Newcastle · Possession and duels − possession 50 %, duels 53 %
Mon 14 Sep home vs Newcastle · Set pieces − 5 corners, 5 conceded
Mon 14 Sep home vs Newcastle · Own box − 4 shots against from inside the box (7 in total)
Mon 14 Sep home vs Newcastle · Box pressure + 10/15 shots from inside the box
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brighton · Finishing + 1 goals from 2.49 expected (-1.49)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brighton · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brighton · Shooting accuracy − 5/10 shots on target (50 %)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brighton · Defensive line + 4 offsides won
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brighton · Discipline + 3 cards, 16 fouls
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brighton · Duels + 52 % of duels won (58/112)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brighton · Possession and duels − possession 33 %, duels 52 %
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brighton · Set pieces − 6 corners, 7 conceded
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brighton · Own box + 11 shots against from inside the box (20 in total)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brighton · Box pressure + 10/10 shots from inside the box
Sat 22 Aug away vs Nottingham Forest · Finishing − 1 goals from 0.49 expected (+0.51)
Sat 22 Aug away vs Nottingham Forest · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sat 22 Aug away vs Nottingham Forest · Shooting accuracy + 3/11 shots on target (27 %)
Sat 22 Aug away vs Nottingham Forest · Defensive line + 3 offsides won
Sat 22 Aug away vs Nottingham Forest · Discipline − 1 cards, 14 fouls
Sat 22 Aug away vs Nottingham Forest · Duels + 52 % of duels won (65/124)
Sat 22 Aug away vs Nottingham Forest · Possession and duels − possession 45 %, duels 52 %
Sat 22 Aug away vs Nottingham Forest · Own box − 6 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
Sat 10 Oct away vs Arsenal · Threat by half − own threat 0.44 → 0.30 xG, opponents 0.45 → 2.21
Sat 10 Oct away vs Arsenal · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Sat 10 Oct away vs Arsenal · Shooting accuracy − 5/11 shots on target (45 %)
Sat 10 Oct away vs Arsenal · Defensive line + 7 offsides won
Sat 10 Oct away vs Arsenal · Discipline + 4 cards, 20 fouls
Sat 10 Oct away vs Arsenal · Duels − 45 % of duels won (45/100)
Sat 10 Oct away vs Arsenal · Possession and duels − possession 42 %, duels 45 %
Sat 10 Oct away vs Arsenal · Set pieces − 4 corners, 3 conceded
Sat 10 Oct away vs Arsenal · Own box + 8 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
Hypothesis 1 · Own box State · closed · 7 matches
Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. home vs Brentford: 18 shots against from inside the box (22 in total)
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Brighton: 11 shots against from inside the box (20 in total)
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Arsenal: 8 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
Challenges
− Sun 20.9. home vs Crystal Palace: 4 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
− Sun 18.10. home vs Manchester United: 6 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
− Mon 14.9. home vs Newcastle: 4 shots against from inside the box (7 in total)
− Sat 22.8. away vs Nottingham Forest: 6 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
Last season 12.5 shots against in the match (no box split)
Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?
Hypothesis 2 · Shooting accuracy State · closed · 7 matches
Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. home vs Brentford: 2/13 shots on target (15 %)
+ Sun 20.9. home vs Crystal Palace: 2/13 shots on target (15 %)
+ Sat 22.8. away vs Nottingham Forest: 3/11 shots on target (27 %)
Challenges
− Sun 18.10. home vs Manchester United: 5/12 shots on target (42 %)
− Mon 14.9. home vs Newcastle: 6/15 shots on target (40 %)
− Sat 5.9. away vs Brighton: 5/10 shots on target (50 %)
− Sat 10.10. away vs Arsenal: 5/11 shots on target (45 %)
Last season 32 % of shots on target (151 / 478)
Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?
Hypothesis 3 · Possession and duels State · closed · 7 matches
Possession may not be matched by duel wins.
Supports
+ Sun 18.10. home vs Manchester United: possession 61 %, duels 47 %
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. home vs Brentford: possession 47 %, duels 56 %
− Sun 20.9. home vs Crystal Palace: possession 51 %, duels 56 %
− Mon 14.9. home vs Newcastle: possession 50 %, duels 53 %
− Sat 5.9. away vs Brighton: possession 33 %, duels 52 %
− Sat 22.8. away vs Nottingham Forest: possession 45 %, duels 52 %
− Sat 10.10. away vs Arsenal: possession 42 %, duels 45 %
Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?
Hypothesis 4 · Set pieces State · closed · 4 matches
Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.
Supports
No longer backed by the evidence.
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. home vs Brentford: 5 corners, 6 conceded
− Mon 14.9. home vs Newcastle: 5 corners, 5 conceded
− Sat 5.9. away vs Brighton: 6 corners, 7 conceded
− Sat 10.10. away vs Arsenal: 4 corners, 3 conceded
Last season 4.4 corners in the match, 5.1 against
Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?
Line: high line: opponents caught offside 22 times (league 3./20)
Progression: progression mid-table: 31.7 passes per shot, possession 47 %
Set pieces: in attack 28 corners (league 14./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 30 corners against (13./20), no headed goals conceded
Second half: output weighted to the second half (1+4 goals); own end leaks late (concessions 2+3); own threat rose in the second half in 4 of 6 matches (median +0.18 xG, league +0.15); opponents' threat rose in the second half in 5 of 6 matches (median +0.58 xG, league +0.15); first substitution on average at minute 64 (covering 6/7 matches, 1 was settled by half-time)
When leading: lead held 1/2: led at half-time 2 times, and 1 of those leads did not hold to a win (opponent xG in matches where they led 0.32 → 2.76)
Game state: Leading 20 % of playing time, level 69 %, trailing 12 %.
| Finishing goals vs xG | Chance creation assists vs xA | |
| Defenders | −2.4 | −1.9 |
| Midfield | +2.6 | +6.0 |
| Forwards | −3.3 | −2.6 |
TEAM IDENTITY
Home ground
Elland Road has been Leeds' home since the club's founding in 1919, and was one of Euro 1996's eight stadiums.
source: Wikipedia, Elland RoadTEAM MEMORY
Leeds return to the Premier League after 16 years when West Bromwich lose to Huddersfield.
source: Premier League (premierleague.com), Leeds United win promotion to the Premier League