Signals ⚽ · My team

Man Utd

SHRINE OF THE WEEK

”Jalkapallo, hitto vie.”

Sir Alex Ferguson, ITV interview right after the Champions League final at the Camp Nou 26.5.1999

THE SQUAD

GKLammens

DEFYoro

DEFMaguire

DEFMartinez

DEFDalot

MIDSantos

MIDBaleba

MIDAmad

MIDTielemans

MIDB.Fernandes

MIDMbeumo

● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 7

fitness concernformno measured deviation

Martinez495 min · 6/7 starts · doubtful (75 %)

Šeško76 min · 0/7 starts · injured (0 %)

Bench

FWDŠeškoFWDZirkzeeMIDMountMIDLacey

NEXT CHECK

LAST MATCH

Leeds – Man Utd 1–1 (half-time 0–1) · goals: Mbeumo ● result: round data

Sun 18 Oct

PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT

No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.

Change alertrepeated

Man Utd played differently in round 7 (vs Leeds) than earlier this season: 3 metric families at the season's lowest level, and 4/7 of the preview claims did not hold. ● round data

Metric	In the match	Adjusted	Repeated
possession	39 %previously 45–72 %	about 34 %	this match only
shots in the box	6previously 6–19, shared extreme	about 6.4 · normal	–
Bruno Fernandes, match-score points	8previously 10–87	not adjusted	both
shots	–	–	previous only

Adjusted for the opponent, 2/3 metric families are still at a season extreme: the opponent explains part of it. The previous match (vs Tottenham) triggered an alert in the same direction. ● match stats · the opponent's earlier matches

Lineup and slots

4 changes to the season's most common starting XI: out Marcus Rashford, Matheus Cunha, Luke Shaw, Kobbie Mainoo; in Leny Yoro, Amad, Andrey Santos, Carlos Baleba. Announced formation 4-2-3-1 as usual, but the team sheet does not show the in-game shape. Defensive line: Diogo Dalot on the left flank (usually on the right flank); Leny Yoro on the right flank (last season as a centre-back in 18/18 starts); Luke Shaw did not start. In front of the defence: Carlos Baleba on the left; Andrey Santos on the right (usually on the left); Kobbie Mainoo did not start; Youri Tielemans played higher up. ● starting line-ups and team-sheet positions

○ When the alert fires while the announced shape stays the same, the change may be in the in-game shape or in roles that the announcement does not show. The next match will show whether the profile returns to the season level.

Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Man Utd shoot this season 20.8 times per match (1st in the league, last season 15.7 and 1st in the league), Leeds: 14.3 shots conceded (league 12.). The match's shot count tells which number held. ● season 2026-27 · 6 matches before the round · last season for comparison
What happened: the defence won: 13 shots (baseline 20.8, opponent concedes 14.3). ● round data
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Man Utd score this season from 7.2 percent of their shots (17th in the league, last season 11.6 and 5th in the league), Leeds: save percentage on shots on target 81.5 (league 1.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created. ●
What happened: the finishing held: 1 goals from 0.93 expected (+0.07), 8 % of shots scored. ●
Third: Rhythm of the two halves. Last season Man Utd scored 58 percent of their goals in the second half, Leeds 51 percent. If the gap holds, the threat grows late towards Manchester United. ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches/team
What happened: the second half was flatter: threat 0.67 → 0.26 xG, shots 4 → 9. ●
Fourth: Box pressure delivers. 71 shots from inside the box (league 2./20) and 9 goals, 125 shots in total (1./20) ● season 2026-27 · from 6 match(es) · match statistics
What happened: observation did not repeat, 6 shots from the box, 1 goals, 12 shots against. ●
One more: No route into the box. 43 % of shots from outside the box (league 1./20) and chance quality only 0.084 xG per shot (19./20) ●
What happened: observation repeated, 54 % of shots from outside the box. ●
Finally: Player pick. Bruno Fernandes is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 26.3 points on average in 6 matches, top three 3 times. ● season 2026-27 · match ratings before the round
What happened: Player pick did not hold: Bruno Fernandes ranked 10/14 in his team's match ratings. Match score 8, season average before the match 26.3. ●
And: Style of play. Progresses quickly: 30 passes per shot, the league's 1. most direct. ● season 2025-26 · from match statistics
What happened: Style claim held: 27.2 passes per shot (league level 35.1). ●

From this match: 3/7 held

Threat by half (expected goals, gold = Leeds): shots 4/4 and 8/9 Two-half split, not a minute-by-minute curve.

Events by minute: Leeds on top, Man Utd below, 2 goals and 4 cards. Vertical lines at minutes 45 and 90. ● match events

Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.

This match's verdict on the Matches list →

WHAT WE PAY ATTENTION TO

In the register, players classified as midfielders scored 45, forwards 13. Watch whether the uneven goal distribution continues.

We give no reading from friendlies – a result is a result; we do not claim it speaks for the season.

NEXT MATCH

Man Utd – Bournemouth

Sun 25.10. · 16:00 · ○ fixture info, as of 25.10.

This match's preview on the Matches list →

MATCH WATCHLIST

Each item is a claim, and the verdict appears beneath it after the match.

Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Man Utd shoot this season 19.7 times per match (1st in the league, last season 15.7 and 1st in the league), Bournemouth: 9.6 shots conceded (league 1.). The match's shot count tells which number held. ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · last season for comparison
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Man Utd score this season from 7.2 percent of their shots (17th in the league, last season 11.6 and 5th in the league), Bournemouth: save percentage on shots on target 50.0 (league 19.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created. ●
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.
Third: Set pieces. Man Utd win this season 6.1 corners per match (2nd in the league, last season 4.8 and 14th in the league), Bournemouth: 3.9 corners conceded (league 19.). The expectation is at least 4 corners. ●
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.
Fourth: Change alert test. Bruno Fernandes's match-score points were at the season's lowest level in 2/2 alert matches (Tottenham 10, Leeds 8). If the change continues, he scores below 11 match-score points in this match too. The limit is the lowest value of the pre-change matches (rounds 1–5), 11. Match-score points are not adjusted for the opponent, and if he does not start, the test is not graded. ● season 2026-27 · match-score points from started matches · change alert from round 7
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.
One more: Change alert test. Change alert in 2 consecutive matches (latest vs Leeds), but adjusted for the opponent, possession sat at the season extreme in only 1/2 alert matches (vs Leeds). If the change continues, possession stays below 53 % in this match too; 43 % or below would mean the change is strengthening. The limits are the lowest value of the pre-change matches (rounds 1–5), 55 %, and the alert matches' level 45 %, adjusted for the opponent: Bournemouth have allowed their opponents 48 % on average (league 50 %). ● season 2026-27 · change alert from round 7 · opponent-adjusted
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.
Finally: Volume without quality. 138 shots (league 1/20), 77 of them from the box (2/20), but chance quality only 0.083 xG per shot (19/20) and 7.2 % of shots scored (16/20) ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · match statistics
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.
And: Player pick. Bruno Fernandes is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 23.7 points on average in 7 matches, top three 3 times. ● season 2026-27 · match ratings before the round
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.
And: Style of play. Progresses quickly: 26 passes per shot, the league's 4. most direct. ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · match statistics
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.

Availability before the match

Out in the registry: Patrick Dorgu, Luke Shaw, Kobbie Mainoo. ▷

Doubtful in the registry: Martinez 75 %, Marcus Rashford 75 %. ▷

Baseline per match from last season: upper bar Man Utd, lower Bournemouth, vertical line the league level. ● measured 2025-26

Preview of both teams on the Matches list →

HOW TO WATCH THIS MATCH

Style of play: Progresses quickly: 30 passes per shot, the league's 1. most direct. 58% of the goals came in the second half; the attack sharpens late. ● season 2025-26 · half-time split from result data · style from match stats (possession, passes, offsides)

Man Utd: Bruno Fernandes: xG-ristiriita ● season 2025-26

Vastustaja · Bournemouth: David Brooks: xG-ristiriita ● season 2025-26

Opponent's style of play: Etenee nopeasti: 30 syöttöä laukausta kohti, liigan 2. suoraviivaisin. Bournemouth have conceded 57 % of their goals in the second half; the pressure lasts to the end. ● season 2025-26 · half-by-half split from results data

Player pick: Matheus da Cunha comes into the season on fire; watch whether the finishing continues where it left off. ● season 2025-26

THE OPPONENT IN BRIEF

Bournemouth-5.2 David Brooks: xG-ristiriita GI vs xGI, David Brookssquad-riski 0.64 core-squad workload, ● season 2025-26James Hill (fitness concern) · Tyler Adams (fitness concern)● season 2025-26

MANAGER'S CORNER · FANTASY

Player card

Bruno Fernandes

Man Utd · midfielder

Rebound expected

xGI per 90 min: 0.25 in the last 3 matches, 0.85 before ●

In 325 similar past dips, 82 % climbed back above the dip over the next 3 matches (all regular players 47 %) ●

xGI per round ●

Match rating 1–10 ▷ 6.3

Next matches ●BOUhomeCHEaway

Compared with 105 midfielders, at least 270 min ●

xG / 90 min0.38

xA / 90 min0.21

Match rating (avg) ▷7.2

Playing time100 %

Season 2026-27, rounds 1–7630 min · 7/7 starts · 3 goals, 1 assists · xGI 4.2 ● measured

▷ in 25.9 % of teams · price 11.7

Player card

Matheus da Cunha

Man Utd · midfielder

Bench risk

Benched in round 7, came on for 6 min ●

xGI per round ●

Next matches ●BOUhome

Season 2026-27, rounds 1–7503 min · 6/7 starts · 1 goals, 3 assists · xGI 1.8 ● measured

▷ in 6.3 % of teams · price 7.9

Player card

Luke Shaw

Man Utd · defender

Bench risk

Not in the squad in round 7 ●

xGI per round ●

Next matches ●BOUhome

Season 2026-27, rounds 1–7425 min · 5/7 starts · 0 goals, 1 assists · xGI 0.6 ● measured

▷ in 4.7 % of teams · price 4.2

Player card

Kobbie Mainoo

Man Utd · midfielder

Bench risk

Not in the squad in round 7 ●

xGI per round ●

Next matches ●BOUhome

Season 2026-27, rounds 1–7444 min · 5/7 starts · 0 goals, 1 assists · xGI 0.8 ● measured

▷ in 1.2 % of teams · price 5.5

Every player in the league, form and risks → All players

TEAM BASELINE

Man Utd

now 14th in the table · 7 pts ●

last season 3rd · 3rd on merit

→

Playing identity now Man Utd progress quickly towards goal. Same profile as last season. The latest match departed from this profile (change alert below). ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches · match stats: possession, passes, shots, offsides

What has changed?

Change alertrepeated

Man Utd played differently in round 7 (vs Leeds) than earlier this season: 3 metric families at the season's lowest level, and 4/7 of the preview claims did not hold. ● round data

Metric	In the match	Adjusted	Repeated
possession	39 %previously 45–72 %	about 34 %	this match only
shots in the box	6previously 6–19, shared extreme	about 6.4 · normal	–
Bruno Fernandes, match-score points	8previously 10–87	not adjusted	both
shots	–	–	previous only

Lineup and slots

Squad after the summer

Left after the 2025-26 season: Casemiro (2575 min, goals+assists 9+4, 14 % of the team's goals, no longer in a league squad).

New starters: Youri Tielemans (7 starts, came from Aston Villa); Andrey Santos (2 starts, came from Chelsea); Carlos Baleba (1 start, came from Brighton).

● season 2025-26 minutes, goals and assists · current squad and starts

Shots have not found the target: 3/14 on target (21 %) (Sun 6.9. away vs Everton).

Last quarter hour · Man Utd dropped 3 points after the 75th minute. ● match events 2026-27 · 75 matches

Signal hypothesis · strengthening · 7 matches

Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.

+ Sun 6.9. away vs Everton: 3/14 shots on target (21 %)

− Sun 30.8. home vs Ipswich: 12/33 shots on target (36 %)

Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?

Evidence in detail

Holds up across game states: in close periods 23 % of shots on target, league 18/20 (12 periods). ● close period = margin of at most 1 goal for at least 75 % of the period's minutes · match stats by half

Last season 36 % of shots on target (216 / 596) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Other tracked hypotheses (5)

Hypothesis 2 · Box pressure State · strengthening · 4 matches

The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.

Supports

+ Sun 30.8. home vs Ipswich: 19/33 shots from inside the box

+ Sun 20.9. away vs Fulham: 17/29 shots from inside the box

+ Sat 22.8. away vs Hull City: 15/21 shots from inside the box

+ Sat 10.10. home vs Tottenham: 8/12 shots from inside the box

Challenges

No counter-evidence yet.

Does not stand out in close periods: 4.4 shots from inside the box per 45 min, league 10/20 (12 periods). The game state explains the number at least in part. ● close period = margin of at most 1 goal for at least 75 % of the period's minutes · match stats by half

Last season 15.7 shots in the match (no box split from last season, so the comparison is shot count) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?

Hypothesis 3 · Own box State · strengthening · 7 matches

Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.

Supports

+ Sun 6.9. away vs Everton: 14 shots against from inside the box (18 in total)

+ Sun 20.9. away vs Fulham: 11 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)

+ Sun 18.10. away vs Leeds: 10 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)

+ Sat 10.10. home vs Tottenham: 8 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)

Challenges

− Sun 30.8. home vs Ipswich: 6 shots against from inside the box (9 in total)

− Sun 13.9. home vs Manchester City: 2 shots against from inside the box (6 in total)

− Sat 22.8. away vs Hull City: 5 shots against from inside the box (8 in total)

Holds up across game states: in close periods 77 % of opponents' shots from inside the box, league 1/20 (12 periods). ● close period = margin of at most 1 goal for at least 75 % of the period's minutes · match stats by half

Last season 11.6 shots against in the match (no box split) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?

Hypothesis 4 · Finishing State · strengthening · 4 matches

Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.

Supports

+ Sun 20.9. away vs Fulham: 1 goals from 1.60 expected (-0.60)

+ Sun 13.9. home vs Manchester City: 0 goals from 1.00 expected (-1.00)

+ Sat 22.8. away vs Hull City: 0 goals from 1.81 expected (-1.81)

Challenges

− Sun 6.9. away vs Everton: 2 goals from 0.69 expected (+1.31)

Does not stand out in close periods: 0.6 goals below expected (xG), league 9/20 (12 periods). The game state explains the number at least in part. ● close period = margin of at most 1 goal for at least 75 % of the period's minutes · match stats by half

Last season 1.8 goals and 15.7 shots in the match, 12 % of shots scored ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?

Hypothesis 5 · Threat by half State · strengthening · 4 matches

The threat appears weighted towards the second half.

Supports

+ Sun 30.8. home vs Ipswich: own threat 0.74 → 3.83 xG, opponents 0.98 → 1.03

+ Sun 13.9. home vs Manchester City: own threat 0.20 → 0.80 xG, opponents 0.09 → 1.01

+ Sat 10.10. home vs Tottenham: own threat 0.09 → 0.79 xG, opponents 0.99 → 0.69

Challenges

− Sun 20.9. away vs Fulham: own threat 1.06 → 0.54 xG, opponents 1.49 → 0.13

Last season 58 % of goals came in the second half (40 / 69) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?

Hypothesis 6 · Defensive line State · mixed · 2 matches

The defence appears to hold a high line.

Supports

+ Sun 6.9. away vs Everton: 3 offsides won

Challenges

− Sat 22.8. away vs Hull City: 0 offsides won

Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?

Show 63 findings

Sun 6 Sep away vs Everton · Finishing − 2 goals from 0.69 expected (+1.31)

Sun 6 Sep away vs Everton · Goalkeeper + 4 saves

Sun 6 Sep away vs Everton · Shooting accuracy + 3/14 shots on target (21 %)

Sun 6 Sep away vs Everton · Defensive line + 3 offsides won

Sun 6 Sep away vs Everton · Discipline + 3 cards, 11 fouls

Sun 6 Sep away vs Everton · Duels − 44 % of duels won (40/91)

Sun 6 Sep away vs Everton · Possession and duels + possession 55 %, duels 44 %

Sun 6 Sep away vs Everton · Set pieces − 3 corners, 4 conceded

Sun 6 Sep away vs Everton · Own box + 14 shots against from inside the box (18 in total)

Sun 30 Aug home vs Ipswich · Threat by half + own threat 0.74 → 3.83 xG, opponents 0.98 → 1.03

Sun 30 Aug home vs Ipswich · Goalkeeper − 3 saves

Sun 30 Aug home vs Ipswich · Shooting accuracy − 12/33 shots on target (36 %)

Sun 30 Aug home vs Ipswich · Discipline − 1 cards, 7 fouls

Sun 30 Aug home vs Ipswich · Duels + 65 % of duels won (55/84)

Sun 30 Aug home vs Ipswich · Possession and duels − possession 60 %, duels 65 %

Sun 30 Aug home vs Ipswich · Set pieces − 8 corners, 4 conceded

Sun 30 Aug home vs Ipswich · Own box − 6 shots against from inside the box (9 in total)

Sun 30 Aug home vs Ipswich · Box pressure + 19/33 shots from inside the box

Sun 20 Sep away vs Fulham · Finishing + 1 goals from 1.60 expected (-0.60)

Sun 20 Sep away vs Fulham · Threat by half − own threat 1.06 → 0.54 xG, opponents 1.49 → 0.13

Sun 20 Sep away vs Fulham · Goalkeeper + 6 saves

Sun 20 Sep away vs Fulham · Shooting accuracy + 6/29 shots on target (21 %)

Sun 20 Sep away vs Fulham · Discipline − 0 cards, 5 fouls

Sun 20 Sep away vs Fulham · Duels − 51 % of duels won (35/69)

Sun 20 Sep away vs Fulham · Possession and duels − possession 58 %, duels 51 %

Sun 20 Sep away vs Fulham · Set pieces − 13 corners, 3 conceded

Sun 20 Sep away vs Fulham · Own box + 11 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)

Sun 20 Sep away vs Fulham · Box pressure + 17/29 shots from inside the box

Sun 18 Oct away vs Leeds · Goalkeeper − 3 saves

Sun 18 Oct away vs Leeds · Shooting accuracy + 3/13 shots on target (23 %)

Sun 18 Oct away vs Leeds · Discipline + 2 cards, 5 fouls

Sun 18 Oct away vs Leeds · Duels + 53 % of duels won (54/101)

Sun 18 Oct away vs Leeds · Possession and duels − possession 39 %, duels 53 %

Sun 18 Oct away vs Leeds · Set pieces − 3 corners, 2 conceded

Sun 18 Oct away vs Leeds · Own box + 10 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)

Sun 13 Sep home vs Manchester City · Finishing + 0 goals from 1.00 expected (-1.00)

Sun 13 Sep home vs Manchester City · Threat by half + own threat 0.20 → 0.80 xG, opponents 0.09 → 1.01

Sun 13 Sep home vs Manchester City · Goalkeeper − 1 saves

Sun 13 Sep home vs Manchester City · Shooting accuracy + 3/16 shots on target (19 %)

Sun 13 Sep home vs Manchester City · Discipline − 1 cards, 17 fouls

Sun 13 Sep home vs Manchester City · Duels − 47 % of duels won (47/100)

Sun 13 Sep home vs Manchester City · Possession and duels + possession 55 %, duels 47 %

Sun 13 Sep home vs Manchester City · Set pieces + 6 corners, 7 conceded

Sun 13 Sep home vs Manchester City · Own box − 2 shots against from inside the box (6 in total)

Sat 22 Aug away vs Hull City · Finishing + 0 goals from 1.81 expected (-1.81)

Sat 22 Aug away vs Hull City · Goalkeeper − 2 saves

Sat 22 Aug away vs Hull City · Shooting accuracy + 5/21 shots on target (24 %)

Sat 22 Aug away vs Hull City · Defensive line − 0 offsides won

Sat 22 Aug away vs Hull City · Discipline − 1 cards, 9 fouls

Sat 22 Aug away vs Hull City · Duels − 41 % of duels won (35/85)

Sat 22 Aug away vs Hull City · Possession and duels + possession 72 %, duels 41 %

Sat 22 Aug away vs Hull City · Set pieces + 6 corners, 1 conceded

Sat 22 Aug away vs Hull City · Own box − 5 shots against from inside the box (8 in total)

Sat 22 Aug away vs Hull City · Box pressure + 15/21 shots from inside the box

Sat 10 Oct home vs Tottenham · Threat by half + own threat 0.09 → 0.79 xG, opponents 0.99 → 0.69

Sat 10 Oct home vs Tottenham · Goalkeeper − 2 saves

Sat 10 Oct home vs Tottenham · Shooting accuracy − 4/12 shots on target (33 %)

Sat 10 Oct home vs Tottenham · Discipline + 4 cards, 13 fouls

Sat 10 Oct home vs Tottenham · Duels + 55 % of duels won (61/111)

Sat 10 Oct home vs Tottenham · Possession and duels − possession 45 %, duels 55 %

Sat 10 Oct home vs Tottenham · Set pieces − 4 corners, 4 conceded

Sat 10 Oct home vs Tottenham · Own box + 8 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)

Sat 10 Oct home vs Tottenham · Box pressure + 8/12 shots from inside the box

A finding is one measured item from one match. A + mark supports the pattern, a − challenges it.

Suljetut hypoteesit (5)

What is closed is not deleted: it shows what we thought and why the view changed.

Hypothesis 1 · Duels State · closed · 7 matches

Duels appear to carry this team's game.

Supports

+ Sun 30.8. home vs Ipswich: 65 % of duels won (55/84)

+ Sun 18.10. away vs Leeds: 53 % of duels won (54/101)

+ Sat 10.10. home vs Tottenham: 55 % of duels won (61/111)

Challenges

− Sun 6.9. away vs Everton: 44 % of duels won (40/91)

− Sun 20.9. away vs Fulham: 51 % of duels won (35/69)

− Sun 13.9. home vs Manchester City: 47 % of duels won (47/100)

− Sat 22.8. away vs Hull City: 41 % of duels won (35/85)

Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?

Hypothesis 2 · Possession and duels State · closed · 7 matches

Possession may not be matched by duel wins.

Supports

+ Sun 6.9. away vs Everton: possession 55 %, duels 44 %

+ Sun 13.9. home vs Manchester City: possession 55 %, duels 47 %

+ Sat 22.8. away vs Hull City: possession 72 %, duels 41 %

Challenges

− Sun 30.8. home vs Ipswich: possession 60 %, duels 65 %

− Sun 20.9. away vs Fulham: possession 58 %, duels 51 %

− Sun 18.10. away vs Leeds: possession 39 %, duels 53 %

− Sat 10.10. home vs Tottenham: possession 45 %, duels 55 %

Weakens in close periods: 53 % possession, league 7/20 (12 periods). Part of the number comes from the game state. ● close period = margin of at most 1 goal for at least 75 % of the period's minutes · match stats by half

Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?

Hypothesis 3 · Discipline State · closed · 7 matches

The cost of indiscipline may rise.

Supports

+ Sun 6.9. away vs Everton: 3 cards, 11 fouls

+ Sun 18.10. away vs Leeds: 2 cards, 5 fouls

+ Sat 10.10. home vs Tottenham: 4 cards, 13 fouls

Challenges

− Sun 30.8. home vs Ipswich: 1 cards, 7 fouls

− Sun 20.9. away vs Fulham: 0 cards, 5 fouls

− Sun 13.9. home vs Manchester City: 1 cards, 17 fouls

− Sat 22.8. away vs Hull City: 1 cards, 9 fouls

Last season 1.7 cards and 10.3 fouls in the match ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?

Hypothesis 4 · Set pieces State · closed · 7 matches

Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.

Supports

+ Sun 13.9. home vs Manchester City: 6 corners, 7 conceded

+ Sat 22.8. away vs Hull City: 6 corners, 1 conceded

Challenges

− Sun 6.9. away vs Everton: 3 corners, 4 conceded

− Sun 30.8. home vs Ipswich: 8 corners, 4 conceded

− Sun 20.9. away vs Fulham: 13 corners, 3 conceded

− Sun 18.10. away vs Leeds: 3 corners, 2 conceded

− Sat 10.10. home vs Tottenham: 4 corners, 4 conceded

Holds up across game states: in close periods 2.8 corners per 45 min, league 5/20 (12 periods). ● close period = margin of at most 1 goal for at least 75 % of the period's minutes · match stats by half

Last season 4.8 corners in the match, 4.9 against ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?

Hypothesis 5 · Goalkeeper State · closed · 7 matches

The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.

Supports

+ Sun 6.9. away vs Everton: 4 saves

+ Sun 20.9. away vs Fulham: 6 saves

Challenges

− Sun 30.8. home vs Ipswich: 3 saves

− Sun 18.10. away vs Leeds: 3 saves

− Sun 13.9. home vs Manchester City: 1 saves

− Sat 22.8. away vs Hull City: 2 saves

− Sat 10.10. home vs Tottenham: 2 saves

Last season 65 % of shots on target kept out (50 conceded / 141) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?

● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · match statistics

Measured numbers for the season

Style of play · season 2026-27

Line: line mid-table: 10 offsides drawn; box open: 73 % of shots conceded came from inside the box ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · offsides and shot locations

Progression: progresses directly: 26.4 passes per shot (league's most direct 4./20), possession 55 % ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · passes and shots

Set pieces: in attack 43 corners (league 2./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 25 corners against (20./20), no headed goals conceded ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · corners and goal types

Second half: output weighted to the second half (2+8 goals); own end leaks late (concessions 3+7); own threat rose in the second half in 5 of 7 matches (median +0.39 xG, league +0.15); opponents' threat rose in the second half in 4 of 7 matches (median +0.05 xG, league +0.15); first substitution on average at minute 63 ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · goals and substitutions by minute

When leading: lead broke: led at half-time once and the lead did not hold to a win (opponent xG vs Leeds 0.27 → 1.21) ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · threat by half

Game state: Leading 17 % of playing time, level 61 %, trailing 22 %. ● minutes from goal events · ○ interpretation

Threat by half, average of 7 matches (gold = Man Utd): own threat rose in the second half in 5 of 7 matches, median +0.39 xG (league +0.15). Two-half split, not a minute curve.

Tracking · season 2026-27

Volume without quality: 138 shots (league 1/20), 77 of them from the box (2/20), but chance quality only 0.083 xG per shot (19/20) and 7.2 % of shots scored (15/20) ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · match statistics
Watching whether shot quality rises alongside the volume or the volume stays without goals.

Holds up across game states: in close periods 0.064 xG per shot, league 20/20 (12 periods). ● close period = margin of at most 1 goal for at least 75 % of the period's minutes · match stats by half

One round is not a trend, so each line says what we track next.

Data limit: we see how many shots there are and where they come from (inside or outside the box), plus the game state. We do not see the route the attack took (through the middle or down the flanks) or where possession was lost.

Last season's baseline

The baseline is the 2025-26 squad. Since then these players left: Casemiro. ● season 2025-26 minutes · current squad

Analyst's take

Manchester United's player groups sat at opposite ends of the goals comparison

Players classified as forwards scored 13 goals (league-comparison rank 18). Players classified as midfielders scored 45 (rank 2). Bruno Fernandes produced the team's highest xA, 12.3, and Casemiro scored 9 goals against 5.4 xG.

Analytical synthesis The bench is a real weapon, not storage: Šeško produced 5 goal involvements as a sub and 58 % of the team's goals come in the second half. Substitutions are a plan; watch who enters around the hour mark. ○ interpretation · every number computed from season 2025-26 ●

Insights

Midfield-reliant: 69 % of goal involvements came from midfield (the league's 2. largest share).

Bruno Fernandes carried the output: 26 % of the team's goal involvements (33 in total, the league's 1. largest share).

Patrick Dorgu produced exceptionally for a defender: 8 goal involvements.

● season 2025-26 · goal involvements from full-season round data

● Manchester United's season landed right where merit pointed: 3. and 3.

○ Man Utd: Midfield has raised its output, yet the team is still above expectation; does it correct

● Held their level all season: only 4 of 10 months finished in the red.

Attack: who produced the goals and assists

	Finishing goals vs xG	Chance creation assists vs xA
Defenders	+0.6	+2.9
Midfield	+2.0	+3.1
Forwards	+1.5	−0.4

Defence, team level

Chance prevention
little danger

+3.9

Shot-stopping
conceded vs chances

−1.7

Data profile · style, character, output ●

Style of play Progresses quickly: 30 passes per shot, the league's 1. most direct. 58% of the goals came in the second half; the attack sharpens late. Rotation 1.9 line-up changes/round. ● season 2025-26 · half-time split from result data · rotation from round data · style from match stats (possession, passes, offsides)

Character Recovered 7 points from losing positions (3 matches) and dropped 6 points from leads (3 matches). One-goal matches 13–5. Home and away in balance: 42 / 29 points. ● season 2025-26 · HT–FT turnarounds from results data

Output Of shots on target, 32 % went in; of those faced, 35 %. Corners 4.8 vs 4.9 per match · 62 yellows + 3 reds over the season. ● season 2025-26 · shots on target, corners and cards from results data

Player readings · 1

● Šeško produced 75 % of the xGI of players classed as forwards in Manchester United's register (2 comparable players).

Signals established profile · set season 2026-27 ●

TEAM IDENTITY

Home ground

Old Trafford

Old Trafford opened on 19.2.1910 with a match against Liverpool; designed by Archibald Leitch.

source: Manchester United FC (manutd.com), Old Trafford stadium history 1910 to 1930

TEAM MEMORY

26.05 · 1999

The treble season ends

Man Utd beat Bayern Munich 2-1 at the Camp Nou and complete the treble.

source: UEFA (uefa.com), The 1999 Champions League final 20 years on