
Last 5 matches: 4 goals and assists from only 2.0 xGI ●
In 576 similar past cases, the scoring pace slowed for 86 % within the next 3 matches (when xGI backed the pace, 77 %) ●
”What is a club in any case? Not the buildings or the directors or the people who are paid to represent it. It's the noise, the passion, the feeling of belonging, the pride in your city.”
Sir Bobby Robson, from the book Newcastle: My Kind of Toon (2008)
THE SQUAD
● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 7
NEXT CHECK
LAST MATCH
Newcastle – Aston Villa 0–1 (puoliaika 0–1)
PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT
No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.
Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Newcastle shoot this season 11.7 times per match (16th in the league, last season 12.9 and 8th in the league), Aston Villa: 15.8 shots conceded (league 16.). The match's shot count tells which number held.
What happened: the pressure held: 16 shots (baseline 11.7, opponent concedes 15.8).
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Newcastle score this season from 14.3 percent of their shots (4th in the league, last season 10.8 and 11th in the league), Aston Villa: save percentage on shots on target 63.3 (league 16.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created.
What happened: goalkeeping and finishing beat the team: 0 goals from 1.07 expected (-1.07), 0 % of shots scored.
Third: Set pieces. Newcastle win this season 4.7 corners per match (9th in the league, last season 6.1 and 3rd in the league), Aston Villa: 4.3 corners conceded (league 15.). The expectation is at least 4 corners.
What happened: fell short of expectation: 4 corners (expected 4), 0 goals.
Fourth: Opponents get into the box. 63 shots against from inside the box (3rd most of 20), 107 shots in total (59 % from the box)
What happened: observation repeated, 11 shots against from inside the box.
One more: Player pick. Anthony Elanga is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 23.7 points on average in 3 matches, top three 1 times.
What happened: Player pick did not hold: Anthony Elanga did not play in this match (not in the match ratings, which cover everyone who played).
From this match: 2/5 held
Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.
MANAGER'S CORNER · FANTASY

Last 5 matches: 4 goals and assists from only 2.0 xGI ●
In 576 similar past cases, the scoring pace slowed for 86 % within the next 3 matches (when xGI backed the pace, 77 %) ●
Last 5 matches: xGI 1.7, only 0 goals and assists ●
Substituted off in round 7 (56 min) ●
Substituted off in round 7 (56 min) ●
TEAM BASELINE
Left after the 2025-26 season: Sandro Tonali (2534 min, goals+assists 0+2, now Tottenham); Bruno Moura (2456 min, goals+assists 9+7, 17 % of the team's goals, now Arsenal); Anthony Gordon (1798 min, goals+assists 6+4, 11 % of the team's goals, no longer in a league squad); Kieran Trippier (1586 min, goals+assists 0+1, no longer in a league squad) and 1 more.
New starters: Horníček (7 starts, from outside the league); Nico Iglesias (5 starts, came from Man City); Dedić (4 starts, from outside the league); Matias Fernandez-Pardo (4 starts, from outside the league) and 1 more.
The box has been reached too easily: 16 shots against from inside the box (27 in total) (Sun 23.8. home vs Liverpool).
Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.
+ Sun 23.8. home vs Liverpool: 16 shots against from inside the box (27 in total)
− Mon 12.10. away vs Coventry: 6 shots against from inside the box (9 in total)
Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?
Holds up across game states: in close periods 5.9 shots conceded from inside the box per 45 min, league 2/20 (9 periods).
Last season 12.4 shots against in the match (no box split)
Hypothesis 2 · Discipline State · strengthening · 7 matches
The cost of indiscipline may rise.
Supports
+ Sun 23.8. home vs Liverpool: 5 cards, 16 fouls
+ Mon 14.9. away vs Leeds: 2 cards, 13 fouls
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Bournemouth: 2 cards, 19 fouls
+ Sat 29.8. away vs Tottenham: 2 cards, 9 fouls
+ Sat 17.10. home vs Aston Villa: 6 cards, 14 fouls
Challenges
− Mon 12.10. away vs Coventry: 1 cards, 10 fouls
− Sat 19.9. home vs Hull City: 1 cards, 4 fouls
Last season 1.7 cards and 10.2 fouls in the match
Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?
Hypothesis 3 · Box pressure State · strengthening · 3 matches
The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.
Supports
+ Mon 12.10. away vs Coventry: 11/19 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 19.9. home vs Hull City: 9/12 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 17.10. home vs Aston Villa: 11/16 shots from inside the box
Challenges
No counter-evidence yet.
Last season 12.9 shots in the match (no box split from last season, so the comparison is shot count)
Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?
Hypothesis 4 · Threat by half State · mixed · 3 matches
The threat appears weighted towards the second half.
Supports
+ Sun 23.8. home vs Liverpool: own threat 0.25 → 1.17 xG, opponents 0.41 → 1.82
+ Sat 29.8. away vs Tottenham: own threat 0.26 → 0.49 xG, opponents 0.50 → 0.54
Challenges
− Mon 12.10. away vs Coventry: own threat 1.23 → 0.64 xG, opponents 0.88 → 0.59
Last season 47 % of goals came in the second half (25 / 53)
Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?
Hypothesis 5 · Defensive line Status · fading · 1 match
The defence appears to hold a high line.
Supports
No longer backed by the evidence.
Challenges
− Sat 17.10. home vs Aston Villa: 0 offsides won
Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?
Sun 23 Aug home vs Liverpool · Finishing − 2 goals from 1.42 expected (+0.58)
Sun 23 Aug home vs Liverpool · Threat by half + own threat 0.25 → 1.17 xG, opponents 0.41 → 1.82
Sun 23 Aug home vs Liverpool · Goalkeeper + 5 saves
Sun 23 Aug home vs Liverpool · Shooting accuracy − 4/13 shots on target (31 %)
Sun 23 Aug home vs Liverpool · Discipline + 5 cards, 16 fouls
Sun 23 Aug home vs Liverpool · Duels − 48 % of duels won (47/97)
Sun 23 Aug home vs Liverpool · Possession and duels − possession 39 %, duels 48 %
Sun 23 Aug home vs Liverpool · Own box + 16 shots against from inside the box (27 in total)
Mon 14 Sep away vs Leeds · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Mon 14 Sep away vs Leeds · Shooting accuracy − 5/7 shots on target (71 %)
Mon 14 Sep away vs Leeds · Discipline + 2 cards, 13 fouls
Mon 14 Sep away vs Leeds · Duels − 47 % of duels won (49/104)
Mon 14 Sep away vs Leeds · Possession and duels + possession 50 %, duels 47 %
Mon 14 Sep away vs Leeds · Set pieces − 5 corners, 5 conceded
Mon 14 Sep away vs Leeds · Own box + 10 shots against from inside the box (15 in total)
Mon 12 Oct away vs Coventry · Finishing + 1 goals from 1.87 expected (-0.87)
Mon 12 Oct away vs Coventry · Threat by half − own threat 1.23 → 0.64 xG, opponents 0.88 → 0.59
Mon 12 Oct away vs Coventry · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Mon 12 Oct away vs Coventry · Shooting accuracy − 6/19 shots on target (32 %)
Mon 12 Oct away vs Coventry · Discipline − 1 cards, 10 fouls
Mon 12 Oct away vs Coventry · Duels + 54 % of duels won (44/81)
Mon 12 Oct away vs Coventry · Possession and duels − possession 67 %, duels 54 %
Mon 12 Oct away vs Coventry · Set pieces − 6 corners, 2 conceded
Mon 12 Oct away vs Coventry · Own box − 6 shots against from inside the box (9 in total)
Mon 12 Oct away vs Coventry · Box pressure + 11/19 shots from inside the box
Sat 5 Sep home vs Bournemouth · Finishing − 2 goals from 0.71 expected (+1.29)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Bournemouth · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Sat 5 Sep home vs Bournemouth · Shooting accuracy + 2/8 shots on target (25 %)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Bournemouth · Discipline + 2 cards, 19 fouls
Sat 5 Sep home vs Bournemouth · Duels − 47 % of duels won (55/116)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Bournemouth · Possession and duels + possession 58 %, duels 47 %
Sat 5 Sep home vs Bournemouth · Set pieces − 4 corners, 3 conceded
Sat 5 Sep home vs Bournemouth · Own box + 9 shots against from inside the box (17 in total)
Sat 29 Aug away vs Tottenham · Finishing − 2 goals from 0.75 expected (+1.25)
Sat 29 Aug away vs Tottenham · Threat by half + own threat 0.26 → 0.49 xG, opponents 0.50 → 0.54
Sat 29 Aug away vs Tottenham · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Sat 29 Aug away vs Tottenham · Shooting accuracy + 2/11 shots on target (18 %)
Sat 29 Aug away vs Tottenham · Discipline + 2 cards, 9 fouls
Sat 29 Aug away vs Tottenham · Duels + 53 % of duels won (41/78)
Sat 29 Aug away vs Tottenham · Possession and duels − possession 42 %, duels 53 %
Sat 29 Aug away vs Tottenham · Set pieces − 7 corners, 9 conceded
Sat 29 Aug away vs Tottenham · Own box + 10 shots against from inside the box (17 in total)
Sat 19 Sep home vs Hull City · Finishing − 2 goals from 1.44 expected (+0.56)
Sat 19 Sep home vs Hull City · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sat 19 Sep home vs Hull City · Shooting accuracy − 5/12 shots on target (42 %)
Sat 19 Sep home vs Hull City · Discipline − 1 cards, 4 fouls
Sat 19 Sep home vs Hull City · Duels − 48 % of duels won (46/96)
Sat 19 Sep home vs Hull City · Possession and duels + possession 56 %, duels 48 %
Sat 19 Sep home vs Hull City · Set pieces − 4 corners, 7 conceded
Sat 19 Sep home vs Hull City · Own box + 12 shots against from inside the box (22 in total)
Sat 19 Sep home vs Hull City · Box pressure + 9/12 shots from inside the box
Sat 17 Oct home vs Aston Villa · Finishing + 0 goals from 1.07 expected (-1.07)
Sat 17 Oct home vs Aston Villa · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Sat 17 Oct home vs Aston Villa · Shooting accuracy + 1/16 shots on target (6 %)
Sat 17 Oct home vs Aston Villa · Defensive line − 0 offsides won
Sat 17 Oct home vs Aston Villa · Discipline + 6 cards, 14 fouls
Sat 17 Oct home vs Aston Villa · Duels − 50 % of duels won (57/113)
Sat 17 Oct home vs Aston Villa · Possession and duels − possession 49 %, duels 50 %
Sat 17 Oct home vs Aston Villa · Own box + 11 shots against from inside the box (15 in total)
Sat 17 Oct home vs Aston Villa · Box pressure + 11/16 shots from inside the box
Hypothesis 1 · Shooting accuracy State · closed · 7 matches
Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.
Supports
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Bournemouth: 2/8 shots on target (25 %)
+ Sat 29.8. away vs Tottenham: 2/11 shots on target (18 %)
+ Sat 17.10. home vs Aston Villa: 1/16 shots on target (6 %)
Challenges
− Sun 23.8. home vs Liverpool: 4/13 shots on target (31 %)
− Mon 14.9. away vs Leeds: 5/7 shots on target (71 %)
− Mon 12.10. away vs Coventry: 6/19 shots on target (32 %)
− Sat 19.9. home vs Hull City: 5/12 shots on target (42 %)
Holds up across game states: in close periods 19 % of shots on target, league 20/20 (9 periods).
Last season 36 % of shots on target (176 / 492)
Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?
Hypothesis 2 · Goalkeeper State · closed · 7 matches
The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.
Supports
+ Sun 23.8. home vs Liverpool: 5 saves
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Bournemouth: 4 saves
+ Sat 29.8. away vs Tottenham: 4 saves
Challenges
− Mon 14.9. away vs Leeds: 3 saves
− Mon 12.10. away vs Coventry: 2 saves
− Sat 19.9. home vs Hull City: 3 saves
− Sat 17.10. home vs Aston Villa: 2 saves
Last season 67 % of shots on target kept out (55 conceded / 168)
Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?
Hypothesis 3 · Possession and duels State · closed · 7 matches
Possession may not be matched by duel wins.
Supports
+ Mon 14.9. away vs Leeds: possession 50 %, duels 47 %
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Bournemouth: possession 58 %, duels 47 %
+ Sat 19.9. home vs Hull City: possession 56 %, duels 48 %
Challenges
− Sun 23.8. home vs Liverpool: possession 39 %, duels 48 %
− Mon 12.10. away vs Coventry: possession 67 %, duels 54 %
− Sat 29.8. away vs Tottenham: possession 42 %, duels 53 %
− Sat 17.10. home vs Aston Villa: possession 49 %, duels 50 %
Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?
Hypothesis 4 · Finishing State · closed · 6 matches
Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.
Supports
+ Mon 12.10. away vs Coventry: 1 goals from 1.87 expected (-0.87)
+ Sat 17.10. home vs Aston Villa: 0 goals from 1.07 expected (-1.07)
Challenges
− Sun 23.8. home vs Liverpool: 2 goals from 1.42 expected (+0.58)
− Sat 5.9. home vs Bournemouth: 2 goals from 0.71 expected (+1.29)
− Sat 29.8. away vs Tottenham: 2 goals from 0.75 expected (+1.25)
− Sat 19.9. home vs Hull City: 2 goals from 1.44 expected (+0.56)
Last season 1.4 goals and 12.9 shots in the match, 11 % of shots scored
Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?
Hypothesis 5 · Duels State · closed · 7 matches
Duels appear to carry this team's game.
Supports
+ Mon 12.10. away vs Coventry: 54 % of duels won (44/81)
+ Sat 29.8. away vs Tottenham: 53 % of duels won (41/78)
Challenges
− Sun 23.8. home vs Liverpool: 48 % of duels won (47/97)
− Mon 14.9. away vs Leeds: 47 % of duels won (49/104)
− Sat 5.9. home vs Bournemouth: 47 % of duels won (55/116)
− Sat 19.9. home vs Hull City: 48 % of duels won (46/96)
− Sat 17.10. home vs Aston Villa: 50 % of duels won (57/113)
Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?
Hypothesis 6 · Set pieces State · closed · 5 matches
Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.
Supports
No longer backed by the evidence.
Challenges
− Mon 14.9. away vs Leeds: 5 corners, 5 conceded
− Mon 12.10. away vs Coventry: 6 corners, 2 conceded
− Sat 5.9. home vs Bournemouth: 4 corners, 3 conceded
− Sat 29.8. away vs Tottenham: 7 corners, 9 conceded
− Sat 19.9. home vs Hull City: 4 corners, 7 conceded
Last season 6.1 corners in the match, 4.9 against
Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?
Line: deep line: the offside trap sprang only 9 times (17./20)
Progression: progression mid-table: 35.0 passes per shot, possession 52 %
Set pieces: in attack 32 corners (league 12./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 37 corners against (5./20), no headed goals conceded
Second half: output weighted to the second half (4+5 goals); own end leaks late (concessions 4+6); own threat rose in the second half in 4 of 6 matches (median +0.33 xG, league +0.15); opponents' threat rose in the second half in 3 of 6 matches (median −0.10 xG, league +0.15); first substitution on average at minute 56 (covering 6/7 matches, 1 was settled by half-time)
When leading: lead held 1/2: led at half-time 2 times, and 1 of those leads did not hold to a win (opponent xG in matches where they led 0.75 → 3.08)
Game state: Leading 31 % of playing time, level 25 %, trailing 44 %. League rank 3 for time trailing, so the season numbers lean towards chasing the game.
| Finishing goals vs xG | Chance creation assists vs xA | |
| Defenders | −0.6 | −3.2 |
| Midfield | −3.3 | −4.6 |
| Forwards | +2.4 | +0.5 |
TEAM IDENTITY
Home ground
St James' Park has been Newcastle's home since 1892, with football played on the site since 1880.
source: Newcastle United FC (newcastleunited.com), History of Our HomeTEAM MEMORY
Newcastle East End and West End merge into Newcastle United.
source: Newcastle United (newcastleunited.com), United's Victorian start (1881-1899)