”I wouldn't say I was the best manager in the business. But I was in the top one.”
Brian Clough
THE SQUAD
● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 8
NEXT CHECK
LAST MATCH
Ipswich – Nott'm Forest 1–1 (half-time 1–1) · goals: N.Williams
PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT
No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.
Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Nott'm Forest shoot this season 17.1 times per match (3rd in the league, last season 12.5 and 12th in the league), Ipswich: 16.9 shots conceded (league 17.). The match's shot count tells which number held.
What happened: between the readings: 17 shots (baseline 17.1, opponent concedes 16.9).
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Nott'm Forest score this season from 4.2 percent of their shots (20th in the league, last season 10.1 and 17th in the league), Ipswich: save percentage on shots on target 61.5 (league 14.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created.
What happened: goalkeeping and finishing beat the team: 1 goals from 2.33 expected (-1.33), 6 % of shots scored.
Third: Set pieces. Nott'm Forest win this season 4.7 corners per match (10th in the league, last season 5.2 and 9th in the league), Ipswich: 4.7 corners conceded (league 10.). The expectation is at least 5 corners.
What happened: expectation met: 5 corners (expected 5), 1 goals.
Fourth: Attacking inefficiency. 5 goals from 11.17 expected (xG), a gap of -6.17, league 20./20
What happened: observation repeated, 1 goals from 2.33 xG (-1.33).
One more: Shots are not finding the target. 25/120 shots on target, i.e. 21 % (league 20./20)
What happened: observation repeated, 5/17 on target (29 %).
Finally: Player pick. Morgan Gibbs-White is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 23.2 points on average in 6 matches, top three 4 times.
What happened: Player pick did not hold: Morgan Gibbs-White ranked 5/14 in his team's match ratings. Match score 15, season average before the match 23.2.
And: Style of play. Progresses quickly: 21 passes per shot, the league's 1. most direct.
What happened: Style claim held: 28.2 passes per shot (league level 32.6).
From this match: 4/6 held
Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.
MANAGER'S CORNER · FANTASY
Last 5 matches: xGI 2.6, only 1 goals and assists ●
In 645 similar past cases, 61 % scored or assisted within the next 3 matches (all regular players 52 %) ●
Last 5 matches: xGI 2.1, only 1 goals and assists ●
Benched in round 8, no minutes ●
Match ratings in the last 3 matches: 8.2 · 7.7 · 6.4 (avg 7.4) ▷
Creating chances Last 3 matches: key passes 12 · xA 1.02 · assists 0 ●
TEAM BASELINE
Left after the 2025-26 season: Elliot Anderson (3332 min, goals+assists 4+5, 9 % of the team's goals, now Man City).
New starters: Xaver Schlager (7 starts, from outside the league); Liam Delap (6 starts, came from Chelsea); Muñoz (6 starts, came from Crystal Palace); Ousmane Diomande (4 starts, from outside the league).
Shots have not found the target: 2/14 on target (14 %) (Sun 18.10. home vs Arsenal).
Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.
+ Sun 18.10. home vs Arsenal: 2/14 shots on target (14 %)
− Sat 12.9. away vs Aston Villa: 7/22 shots on target (32 %)
Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?
Holds up across game states: in close periods 22 % of shots on target, league 19/20 (15 periods).
Last season 33 % of shots on target (156 / 476)
Hypothesis 2 · Finishing State · strengthening · 6 matches
Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.
Supports
+ Sun 18.10. home vs Arsenal: 0 goals from 0.94 expected (-0.94)
+ Sun 11.10. away vs Crystal Palace: 1 goals from 2.98 expected (-1.98)
+ Fri 23.10. away vs Ipswich: 1 goals from 2.33 expected (-1.33)
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Tottenham: 0 goals from 0.92 expected (-0.92)
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Leeds: 0 goals from 0.65 expected (-0.65)
+ Sat 19.9. home vs Coventry: 0 goals from 1.10 expected (-1.10)
Challenges
No counter-evidence yet.
Holds up across game states: in close periods 6.7 goals below expected (xG), league 20/20 (15 periods).
Last season 1.3 goals and 12.5 shots in the match, 10 % of shots scored
Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?
Hypothesis 3 · Box pressure State · strengthening · 6 matches
The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.
Supports
+ Sun 18.10. home vs Arsenal: 8/14 shots from inside the box
+ Sun 11.10. away vs Crystal Palace: 16/24 shots from inside the box
+ Fri 23.10. away vs Ipswich: 15/17 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 29.8. away vs Liverpool: 11/12 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 19.9. home vs Coventry: 12/24 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Aston Villa: 14/22 shots from inside the box
Challenges
No counter-evidence yet.
Holds up across game states: in close periods 5.5 shots from inside the box per 45 min, league 1/20 (15 periods).
Last season 12.5 shots in the match (no box split from last season, so the comparison is shot count)
Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?
Hypothesis 4 · Discipline State · strengthening · 8 matches
The cost of indiscipline may rise.
Supports
+ Sun 11.10. away vs Crystal Palace: 2 cards, 10 fouls
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Tottenham: 2 cards, 22 fouls
+ Sat 29.8. away vs Liverpool: 2 cards, 10 fouls
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Leeds: 2 cards, 15 fouls
+ Sat 19.9. home vs Coventry: 2 cards, 12 fouls
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Aston Villa: 5 cards, 16 fouls
Challenges
− Sun 18.10. home vs Arsenal: 1 cards, 14 fouls
− Fri 23.10. away vs Ipswich: 1 cards, 11 fouls
Last season 1.6 cards and 10.7 fouls in the match
Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?
Hypothesis 5 · Defensive line State · mixed · 3 matches
The defence appears to hold a high line.
Supports
+ Sat 29.8. away vs Liverpool: 3 offsides won
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Leeds: 3 offsides won
Challenges
− Sat 12.9. away vs Aston Villa: 0 offsides won
Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?
Sun 18 Oct home vs Arsenal · Finishing + 0 goals from 0.94 expected (-0.94)
Sun 18 Oct home vs Arsenal · Threat by half + own threat 0.23 → 0.71 xG, opponents 0.57 → 0.59
Sun 18 Oct home vs Arsenal · Goalkeeper − 0 saves
Sun 18 Oct home vs Arsenal · Shooting accuracy + 2/14 shots on target (14 %)
Sun 18 Oct home vs Arsenal · Discipline − 1 cards, 14 fouls
Sun 18 Oct home vs Arsenal · Duels − 51 % of duels won (51/100)
Sun 18 Oct home vs Arsenal · Possession and duels − possession 26 %, duels 51 %
Sun 18 Oct home vs Arsenal · Set pieces + 8 corners, 6 conceded
Sun 18 Oct home vs Arsenal · Own box − 7 shots against from inside the box (9 in total)
Sun 18 Oct home vs Arsenal · Box pressure + 8/14 shots from inside the box
Sun 11 Oct away vs Crystal Palace · Finishing + 1 goals from 2.98 expected (-1.98)
Sun 11 Oct away vs Crystal Palace · Threat by half − own threat 2.18 → 0.80 xG, opponents 1.41 → 1.01
Sun 11 Oct away vs Crystal Palace · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Sun 11 Oct away vs Crystal Palace · Shooting accuracy + 6/24 shots on target (25 %)
Sun 11 Oct away vs Crystal Palace · Discipline + 2 cards, 10 fouls
Sun 11 Oct away vs Crystal Palace · Duels − 49 % of duels won (48/98)
Sun 11 Oct away vs Crystal Palace · Possession and duels + possession 57 %, duels 49 %
Sun 11 Oct away vs Crystal Palace · Set pieces − 8 corners, 5 conceded
Sun 11 Oct away vs Crystal Palace · Own box + 11 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
Sun 11 Oct away vs Crystal Palace · Box pressure + 16/24 shots from inside the box
Fri 23 Oct away vs Ipswich · Finishing + 1 goals from 2.33 expected (-1.33)
Fri 23 Oct away vs Ipswich · Threat by half − own threat 1.40 → 0.93 xG, opponents 0.42 → 0.07
Fri 23 Oct away vs Ipswich · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Fri 23 Oct away vs Ipswich · Shooting accuracy + 5/17 shots on target (29 %)
Fri 23 Oct away vs Ipswich · Discipline − 1 cards, 11 fouls
Fri 23 Oct away vs Ipswich · Duels + 52 % of duels won (49/95)
Fri 23 Oct away vs Ipswich · Possession and duels − possession 51 %, duels 52 %
Fri 23 Oct away vs Ipswich · Set pieces − 5 corners, 0 conceded
Fri 23 Oct away vs Ipswich · Own box − 3 shots against from inside the box (7 in total)
Fri 23 Oct away vs Ipswich · Box pressure + 15/17 shots from inside the box
Sat 5 Sep home vs Tottenham · Finishing + 0 goals from 0.92 expected (-0.92)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Tottenham · Threat by half − own threat 0.49 → 0.43 xG, opponents 0.08 → 0.99
Sat 5 Sep home vs Tottenham · Goalkeeper − 0 saves
Sat 5 Sep home vs Tottenham · Shooting accuracy + 2/12 shots on target (17 %)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Tottenham · Discipline + 2 cards, 22 fouls
Sat 5 Sep home vs Tottenham · Duels − 48 % of duels won (61/127)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Tottenham · Possession and duels − possession 41 %, duels 48 %
Sat 5 Sep home vs Tottenham · Own box + 8 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)
Sat 29 Aug away vs Liverpool · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Sat 29 Aug away vs Liverpool · Shooting accuracy + 3/12 shots on target (25 %)
Sat 29 Aug away vs Liverpool · Defensive line + 3 offsides won
Sat 29 Aug away vs Liverpool · Discipline + 2 cards, 10 fouls
Sat 29 Aug away vs Liverpool · Duels + 54 % of duels won (60/111)
Sat 29 Aug away vs Liverpool · Possession and duels − possession 30 %, duels 54 %
Sat 29 Aug away vs Liverpool · Set pieces − 5 corners, 3 conceded
Sat 29 Aug away vs Liverpool · Own box + 8 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
Sat 29 Aug away vs Liverpool · Box pressure + 11/12 shots from inside the box
Sat 22 Aug home vs Leeds · Finishing + 0 goals from 0.65 expected (-0.65)
Sat 22 Aug home vs Leeds · Threat by half + own threat 0.19 → 0.46 xG, opponents 0.18 → 0.31
Sat 22 Aug home vs Leeds · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Sat 22 Aug home vs Leeds · Shooting accuracy + 2/12 shots on target (17 %)
Sat 22 Aug home vs Leeds · Defensive line + 3 offsides won
Sat 22 Aug home vs Leeds · Discipline + 2 cards, 15 fouls
Sat 22 Aug home vs Leeds · Duels − 48 % of duels won (59/124)
Sat 22 Aug home vs Leeds · Possession and duels + possession 55 %, duels 48 %
Sat 22 Aug home vs Leeds · Own box − 6 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)
Sat 19 Sep home vs Coventry · Finishing + 0 goals from 1.10 expected (-1.10)
Sat 19 Sep home vs Coventry · Threat by half − own threat 0.60 → 0.50 xG, opponents 0.25 → 0.43
Sat 19 Sep home vs Coventry · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Sat 19 Sep home vs Coventry · Shooting accuracy + 3/24 shots on target (12 %)
Sat 19 Sep home vs Coventry · Discipline + 2 cards, 12 fouls
Sat 19 Sep home vs Coventry · Duels − 49 % of duels won (52/106)
Sat 19 Sep home vs Coventry · Possession and duels + possession 62 %, duels 49 %
Sat 19 Sep home vs Coventry · Set pieces + 6 corners, 2 conceded
Sat 19 Sep home vs Coventry · Own box − 5 shots against from inside the box (10 in total)
Sat 19 Sep home vs Coventry · Box pressure + 12/24 shots from inside the box
Sat 12 Sep away vs Aston Villa · Threat by half + own threat 0.39 → 1.89 xG, opponents 0.65 → 0.17
Sat 12 Sep away vs Aston Villa · Goalkeeper + 5 saves
Sat 12 Sep away vs Aston Villa · Shooting accuracy − 7/22 shots on target (32 %)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Aston Villa · Defensive line − 0 offsides won
Sat 12 Sep away vs Aston Villa · Discipline + 5 cards, 16 fouls
Sat 12 Sep away vs Aston Villa · Duels + 52 % of duels won (50/97)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Aston Villa · Possession and duels − possession 46 %, duels 52 %
Sat 12 Sep away vs Aston Villa · Own box − 6 shots against from inside the box (7 in total)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Aston Villa · Box pressure + 14/22 shots from inside the box
Hypothesis 1 · Threat by half State · closed · 7 matches
The threat appears weighted towards the second half.
Supports
+ Sun 18.10. home vs Arsenal: own threat 0.23 → 0.71 xG, opponents 0.57 → 0.59
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Leeds: own threat 0.19 → 0.46 xG, opponents 0.18 → 0.31
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Aston Villa: own threat 0.39 → 1.89 xG, opponents 0.65 → 0.17
Challenges
− Sun 11.10. away vs Crystal Palace: own threat 2.18 → 0.80 xG, opponents 1.41 → 1.01
− Fri 23.10. away vs Ipswich: own threat 1.40 → 0.93 xG, opponents 0.42 → 0.07
− Sat 5.9. home vs Tottenham: own threat 0.49 → 0.43 xG, opponents 0.08 → 0.99
− Sat 19.9. home vs Coventry: own threat 0.60 → 0.50 xG, opponents 0.25 → 0.43
Last season 60 % of goals came in the second half (29 / 48)
Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?
Hypothesis 2 · Own box State · closed · 8 matches
Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.
Supports
+ Sun 11.10. away vs Crystal Palace: 11 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Tottenham: 8 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)
+ Sat 29.8. away vs Liverpool: 8 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
Challenges
− Sun 18.10. home vs Arsenal: 7 shots against from inside the box (9 in total)
− Fri 23.10. away vs Ipswich: 3 shots against from inside the box (7 in total)
− Sat 22.8. home vs Leeds: 6 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)
− Sat 19.9. home vs Coventry: 5 shots against from inside the box (10 in total)
− Sat 12.9. away vs Aston Villa: 6 shots against from inside the box (7 in total)
Last season 13.3 shots against in the match (no box split)
Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?
Hypothesis 3 · Duels State · closed · 8 matches
Duels appear to carry this team's game.
Supports
+ Fri 23.10. away vs Ipswich: 52 % of duels won (49/95)
+ Sat 29.8. away vs Liverpool: 54 % of duels won (60/111)
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Aston Villa: 52 % of duels won (50/97)
Challenges
− Sun 18.10. home vs Arsenal: 51 % of duels won (51/100)
− Sun 11.10. away vs Crystal Palace: 49 % of duels won (48/98)
− Sat 5.9. home vs Tottenham: 48 % of duels won (61/127)
− Sat 22.8. home vs Leeds: 48 % of duels won (59/124)
− Sat 19.9. home vs Coventry: 49 % of duels won (52/106)
Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?
Hypothesis 4 · Possession and duels State · closed · 8 matches
Possession may not be matched by duel wins.
Supports
+ Sun 11.10. away vs Crystal Palace: possession 57 %, duels 49 %
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Leeds: possession 55 %, duels 48 %
+ Sat 19.9. home vs Coventry: possession 62 %, duels 49 %
Challenges
− Sun 18.10. home vs Arsenal: possession 26 %, duels 51 %
− Fri 23.10. away vs Ipswich: possession 51 %, duels 52 %
− Sat 5.9. home vs Tottenham: possession 41 %, duels 48 %
− Sat 29.8. away vs Liverpool: possession 30 %, duels 54 %
− Sat 12.9. away vs Aston Villa: possession 46 %, duels 52 %
Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?
Hypothesis 5 · Set pieces State · closed · 5 matches
Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.
Supports
+ Sun 18.10. home vs Arsenal: 8 corners, 6 conceded
+ Sat 19.9. home vs Coventry: 6 corners, 2 conceded
Challenges
− Sun 11.10. away vs Crystal Palace: 8 corners, 5 conceded
− Fri 23.10. away vs Ipswich: 5 corners, 0 conceded
− Sat 29.8. away vs Liverpool: 5 corners, 3 conceded
Last season 5.2 corners in the match, 4.8 against
Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?
Hypothesis 6 · Goalkeeper State · closed · 8 matches
The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.
Supports
+ Sun 11.10. away vs Crystal Palace: 4 saves
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Aston Villa: 5 saves
Challenges
− Sun 18.10. home vs Arsenal: 0 saves
− Fri 23.10. away vs Ipswich: 2 saves
− Sat 5.9. home vs Tottenham: 0 saves
− Sat 29.8. away vs Liverpool: 2 saves
− Sat 22.8. home vs Leeds: 2 saves
− Sat 19.9. home vs Coventry: 2 saves
Last season 69 % of shots on target kept out (51 conceded / 162)
Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?
Line: line mid-level: 14 offsides drawn
Progression: progresses directly: 22.3 passes per shot (league's most direct 1./20), possession 46 %
Set pieces: in attack 38 corners (league 10./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 34 corners against (14./20), no headed goals conceded
Second half: own end leaks late (concessions 3+7); own threat rose in the second half in 3 of 8 matches (median −0.08 xG, league +0.15); opponents' threat rose in the second half in 5 of 8 matches (median +0.07 xG, league +0.15); first substitution on average at minute 66
When leading: lead broke: led at half-time once and the lead did not hold to a win (opponent xG vs Liverpool 0.25 → 1.36)
Game state: Leading 20 % of playing time, level 67 %, trailing 13 %.
Attacking inefficiency: 6 goals from 13.50 expected (xG), a gap of -7.50, league 20./20
We track whether the finishing corrects or the deficit continues: the same metric is read after every round.
Holds up across game states: in close periods 6.7 goals below expected (xG), league 20/20 (15 periods).
Box pressure delivers: 87 shots from inside the box (league 4./20) and 6 goals, 137 shots in total (3./20)
We track whether box pressure holds when opponents defend deeper: volume without goals is recorded as inefficiency.
Holds up across game states: in close periods 5.5 shots from inside the box per 45 min, league 1/20 (15 periods).
Shots are not finding the target: 30/137 shots on target, i.e. 22 % (league 20./20)
We track whether accuracy climbs as the chances improve: volume without shots on target does not produce goals.
Holds up across game states: in close periods 22 % of shots on target, league 19/20 (15 periods).
| Finishing goals vs xG | Chance creation assists vs xA | |
| Defenders | +1.2 | −4.1 |
| Midfield | +4.1 | +2.3 |
| Forwards | −1.2 | +2.8 |
TEAM IDENTITY
Home ground
The City Ground has been Forest's home since 1898 on the banks of the Trent, and was a Euro 1996 venue.
source: Nottingham Forest FC (nottinghamforest.co.uk), History of The City GroundTEAM MEMORY
Forest win the European Cup again by beating Hamburg in Madrid.
source: Wikipedia, 1980 European Cup final