Signals ⚽ · My team

MY CLUB

Sunderland

”Ha'way the Lads”, go on, lads

THE SQUAD

GKRoefs

DEFMukiele

DEFDanso

DEFAlderete

DEFReinildo

MIDXhaka

MIDSadiki

DEFHume

MIDRigg

MIDFée

FWDTuterov

● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 7

fitness concernformno measured deviation

Danso376 min · 5/7 starts · suspended (0 %)

Bench

MIDFofanaMIDDiarraMIDTalbiMIDAhokaMIDJocelin.T

NEXT CHECK

LAST MATCH

Bournemouth – Sunderland 2–0 (puoliaika 1–0) ● result: round data

Sun 18 Oct

PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT

No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.

Change alert

Sunderland played differently in round 7 (vs Bournemouth) than earlier this season: 3 metric families at the season's lowest level, and 5/6 of the preview claims did not hold. ● round data

Metric	In the match	Adjusted
possession	35 %previously 42–62 %	about 34 %
shots	3previously 11–17	about 6.1
shots in the box	2previously 4–14	about 3.9
expected goals	0.13previously 0.68–3.57	about 0.28
Brian Brobbey, match-score points	did not playpreviously 0–92	not adjusted

Adjusted for the opponent, 3/3 metric families are still at a season extreme: the alert stays strong. ● match stats · the opponent's earlier matches

Lineup and slots

4 changes to the season's most common starting XI: out Daniel Ballard, Brian Brobbey, Nilson Angulo, Thomas Meunier; in Chris Rigg, Omar Alderete, Trai Hume, Timur Tuterov. Announced formation 4-2-3-1 as usual, but the team sheet does not show the in-game shape. Defensive line: Omar Alderete centre-left; Daniel Ballard did not start. ● starting line-ups and team-sheet positions

○ When the alert fires while the announced shape stays the same, the change may be in the in-game shape or in roles that the announcement does not show. The next match will show whether the profile returns to the season level.

Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Sunderland shoot this season 13.0 times per match (12th in the league, last season 10.4 and 18th in the league), Bournemouth: 10.7 shots conceded (league 2.). The match's shot count tells which number held. ● season 2026-27 · 6 matches before the round · last season for comparison
What happened: the defence won: 3 shots (baseline 13.0, opponent concedes 10.7). ● round data
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Sunderland score this season from 7.7 percent of their shots (16th in the league, last season 10.6 and 14th in the league), Bournemouth: save percentage on shots on target 50.0 (league 19.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created. ●
What happened: the finishing held: 0 goals from 0.13 expected (-0.13), 0 % of shots scored. ●
Third: Rhythm of the two halves. Last season Sunderland scored 69 percent of their goals in the second half, Bournemouth 55 percent. If the gap holds, the threat grows late towards Sunderland. ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches/team
What happened: the second half was flatter: threat 0.07 → 0.06 xG, shots 1 → 2. ●
Fourth: Attacking inefficiency. 6 goals from 10.27 expected (xG), a gap of -4.27, league 19./20 ● season 2026-27 · from 6 match(es) · match statistics
What happened: observation stayed open, 0 goals from 0.13 xG (-0.13). ○
One more: The second half sharpens. Threat rose in the second half (xG 2nd – 1st half +3.81) ●
What happened: observation did not repeat, threat 0.07 → 0.06 xG. ●
Finally: Player pick. Brian Brobbey is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 22.6 points on average in 5 matches, top three 1 times. ● season 2026-27 · match ratings before the round
What happened: Player pick did not hold: Brian Brobbey did not play in this match (not in the match ratings, which cover everyone who played). ●
And: Style of play. Low block: 36 % of shots conceded from outside the box, forces opponents to shoot from range. ● season 2025-26 · from match statistics
What happened: The playing-style claim did not hold: 28 % of shots conceded from outside the box (league level 32 %). ●

From this match: 1/6 held

Threat by half (expected goals, gold = Bournemouth): shots 13/1 and 16/2 Two-half split, not a minute-by-minute curve.

Events by minute: Bournemouth on top, Sunderland below, 2 goals and 6 cards. Vertical lines at minutes 45 and 90. ● match events

Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.

This match's verdict on the Matches list →

WHAT WE PAY ATTENTION TO

Sunderland were 7th, merit level 18th. Brobbey produced nearly half of the forward class's xGI. Watch whether the gap narrows.

We give no reading from friendlies – a result is a result; we do not claim it speaks for the season.

NEXT MATCH

Sunderland – Leeds

Sun 25.10. · 18:30 · ○ fixture info, as of 25.10.

This match's preview on the Matches list →

MATCH WATCHLIST

Each item is a claim, and the verdict appears beneath it after the match.

Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Sunderland shoot this season 11.6 times per match (16th in the league, last season 10.4 and 18th in the league), Leeds: 14.1 shots conceded (league 10.). The match's shot count tells which number held. ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · last season for comparison
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Sunderland score this season from 7.4 percent of their shots (16th in the league, last season 10.6 and 14th in the league), Leeds: save percentage on shots on target 80.0 (league 1.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created. ●
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.
Third: Set pieces. Sunderland win this season 4.3 corners per match (13th in the league, last season 3.7 and 18th in the league), Leeds: 4.1 corners conceded (league 16.). The expectation is at least 4 corners. ●
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.
Fourth: Change alert test. Change alert in the previous match (vs Bournemouth). If the change continues, possession stays below 45 % in this match too; 38 % or below would mean the change is strengthening. The limits are the lowest value of the pre-change matches (rounds 1–6), 42 %, and the alert matches' level 35 %, adjusted for the opponent: Leeds have allowed their opponents 53 % on average (league 50 %). ● season 2026-27 · change alert from round 7 · opponent-adjusted
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.
One more: Attacking inefficiency. 6 goals from 10.40 expected (xG), a gap of -4.40, league 19./20 ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · match statistics
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.
Finally: The second half sharpens. Threat rose in the second half in 4 of 7 matches, median +0.43 xG per match (league +0.19). Without the single largest match (vs Fulham, +1.62) the average is +0.36, and without matches where they were behind at half-time (2) +0.68 ●
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.
And: Rhythm. Threat rose in the second half in 4 of 7 matches, median +0.43 xG per match (league +0.19). Without the single largest match (vs Fulham, +1.62) the average is +0.36, and without matches where they were behind at half-time (2) +0.68. ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · threat by half
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.
And: Player pick. Brian Brobbey is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 22.6 points on average in 5 matches, top three 1 times. ● season 2026-27 · match ratings before the round
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.
And: Style of play. Deep line: the offside trap springs rarely (0.8/match). ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · match statistics
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.

Availability before the match

Out in the registry: Kevin Danso, Daniel Ballard. ▷

Doubtful in the registry: Thomas Meunier 75 %, Brian Brobbey 75 %, Wilson Isidor 50 %. ▷

Baseline per match from last season: upper bar Sunderland, lower Leeds, vertical line the league level. ● measured 2025-26

Preview of both teams on the Matches list →

HOW TO WATCH THIS MATCH

Style of play: Low block: 36 % of shots conceded from outside the box, forces opponents to shoot from range. Plays without the ball: possession 45 % (league's 5. lowest); space comes from transitions. 69% of the goals came in the second half; the attack sharpens late. ● season 2025-26 · half-time split from result data · style from match stats (possession, passes, offsides)

Sunderland: Habib Diarra: xG-ristiriita ● season 2025-26

Vastustaja · Leeds: Noah Okafor: xG-ristiriita ● season 2025-26

Opponent's style of play: Etenee nopeasti: 31 syöttöä laukausta kohti, liigan 3. suoraviivaisin. Leeds have conceded 71 % of their goals in the second half; the pressure lasts to the end. ● season 2025-26 · half-by-half split from results data

Player pick: Daniel Ballard carried the core, but fitness left question marks (2 early substitutions · 9 DNP, patchy season). ● season 2025-26

THE OPPONENT IN BRIEF

Leeds+4.4 Noah Okafor: xG-ristiriita GI vs xGI, Noah Okaforsquad-riski 1.18 core-squad workload, ● season 2025-26Karl Darlow (fitness concern) · Gabriel Gudmundsson (fitness concern)● season 2025-26

MANAGER'S CORNER · FANTASY

Player card

Enzo Le Fée

Sunderland · midfielder

Rebound expected

xGI per 90 min: 0.28 in the last 3 matches, 0.74 before ●

In 325 similar past dips, 82 % climbed back above the dip over the next 3 matches (all regular players 47 %) ●

xGI per round ●

Match rating 1–10 ▷ 6.2

Next matches ●LEEhomeCOVaway

Compared with 105 midfielders, at least 270 min ●

xG / 90 min0.31

xA / 90 min0.24

Match rating (avg) ▷6.6

Playing time97 %

Season 2026-27, rounds 1–7608 min · 7/7 starts · 1 goals, 1 assists · xGI 3.7 ● measured

▷ in 2.9 % of teams · price 5.7

Player card

Brian Brobbey

Sunderland · forward

Bench risk

Not in the squad in round 7 ●

xGI per round ●

Next matches ●LEEhome

Season 2026-27, rounds 1–7399 min · 5/7 starts · 3 goals, 0 assists · xGI 3.0 ● measured

▷ in 5.1 % of teams · price 5.7

Player card

Thomas Meunier

Sunderland · defender

Bench risk

Not in the squad in round 7 ●

xGI per round ●

Next matches ●LEEhome

Season 2026-27, rounds 1–7429 min · 6/7 starts · 0 goals, 1 assists · xGI 1.1 ● measured

▷ in 0.2 % of teams · price 4.5

Player card

Nilson Angulo

Sunderland · midfielder

Bench risk

Benched in round 7, no minutes ●

xGI per round ●

Next matches ●LEEhome

Season 2026-27, rounds 1–7385 min · 6/7 starts · 1 goals, 1 assists · xGI 0.7 ● measured

▷ in 0.1 % of teams · price 5.0

Every player in the league, form and risks → All players

TEAM BASELINE

Sunderland

now 20th in the table · 4 pts ●

last season 7th · 18th on merit

↗railo +11

Playing identity now Sunderland defend deep. Last season: seal their box with a low block; play without the ball and strike in transition. The latest match departed from this profile (change alert below). ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches · match stats: possession, passes, shots, offsides

What has changed?

Change alert

Sunderland played differently in round 7 (vs Bournemouth) than earlier this season: 3 metric families at the season's lowest level, and 5/6 of the preview claims did not hold. ● round data

Metric	In the match	Adjusted
possession	35 %previously 42–62 %	about 34 %
shots	3previously 11–17	about 6.1
shots in the box	2previously 4–14	about 3.9
expected goals	0.13previously 0.68–3.57	about 0.28
Brian Brobbey, match-score points	did not playpreviously 0–92	not adjusted

Adjusted for the opponent, 3/3 metric families are still at a season extreme: the alert stays strong. ● match stats · the opponent's earlier matches

Lineup and slots

Squad after the summer

Left after the 2025-26 season: Lutsharel Geertruida (1681 min, goals+assists 0+0, no longer in a league squad).

New starters: Thomas Meunier (6 starts, from outside the league); Kevin Danso (5 starts, came from Tottenham); Methalie (1 start, from outside the league).

● season 2025-26 minutes, goals and assists · current squad and starts

Goal output has not followed the chances: 1 goals from 1.75 expected (-0.75) (Sun 30.8. home vs Fulham).

Signal hypothesis · strengthening · 5 matches

Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.

+ Sun 30.8. home vs Fulham: 1 goals from 1.75 expected (-0.75)

Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?

Evidence in detail

Holds up across game states: in close periods 4.3 goals below expected (xG), league 19/20 (13 periods). ● close period = margin of at most 1 goal for at least 75 % of the period's minutes · match stats by half

Last season 1.1 goals and 10.4 shots in the match, 11 % of shots scored ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Other tracked hypotheses (5)

Hypothesis 2 · Own box State · strengthening · 7 matches

Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.

Supports

+ Sun 20.9. away vs Manchester City: 12 shots against from inside the box (16 in total)

+ Sun 18.10. away vs Bournemouth: 21 shots against from inside the box (29 in total)

+ Sat 22.8. away vs Ipswich: 8 shots against from inside the box (10 in total)

+ Sat 12.9. home vs Arsenal: 8 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)

Challenges

− Sun 30.8. home vs Fulham: 5 shots against from inside the box (9 in total)

− Sat 5.9. away vs Brentford: 7 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)

− Sat 10.10. home vs Brighton: 6 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)

Does not stand out in close periods: 4.1 shots conceded from inside the box per 45 min, league 14/20 (13 periods). The game state explains the number at least in part. ● close period = margin of at most 1 goal for at least 75 % of the period's minutes · match stats by half

Last season 14.3 shots against in the match (no box split) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?

Hypothesis 3 · Discipline State · strengthening · 7 matches

The cost of indiscipline may rise.

Supports

+ Sun 18.10. away vs Bournemouth: 3 cards, 7 fouls

+ Sat 5.9. away vs Brentford: 2 cards, 9 fouls

+ Sat 22.8. away vs Ipswich: 3 cards, 14 fouls

+ Sat 12.9. home vs Arsenal: 7 cards, 18 fouls

Challenges

− Sun 30.8. home vs Fulham: 0 cards, 10 fouls

− Sun 20.9. away vs Manchester City: 1 cards, 14 fouls

− Sat 10.10. home vs Brighton: 0 cards, 8 fouls

Last season 2.2 cards and 10.7 fouls in the match ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?

Hypothesis 4 · Box pressure State · strengthening · 4 matches

The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.

Supports

+ Sun 30.8. home vs Fulham: 9/12 shots from inside the box

+ Sun 20.9. away vs Manchester City: 14/17 shots from inside the box

+ Sat 5.9. away vs Brentford: 10/14 shots from inside the box

Challenges

− Sun 18.10. away vs Bournemouth: 2/3 shots from inside the box

Last season 10.4 shots in the match (no box split from last season, so the comparison is shot count) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?

Hypothesis 5 · Threat by half State · mixed · 6 matches

The threat appears weighted towards the second half.

Supports

+ Sun 30.8. home vs Fulham: own threat 0.07 → 1.69 xG, opponents 0.46 → 0.32

+ Sat 5.9. away vs Brentford: own threat 0.35 → 1.36 xG, opponents 0.35 → 0.85

+ Sat 12.9. home vs Arsenal: own threat 0.23 → 1.57 xG, opponents 0.77 → 1.11

Challenges

− Sun 18.10. away vs Bournemouth: own threat 0.07 → 0.06 xG, opponents 1.95 → 2.45

− Sat 22.8. away vs Ipswich: own threat 0.58 → 0.17 xG, opponents 0.95 → 0.79

− Sat 10.10. home vs Brighton: own threat 0.43 → 0.25 xG, opponents 0.47 → 0.67

Last season 69 % of goals came in the second half (29 / 42) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?

Hypothesis 6 · Defensive line State · declining · 2 matches

The defence appears to hold a high line.

Supports

No longer backed by the evidence.

Challenges

− Sat 5.9. away vs Brentford: 0 offsides won

− Sat 10.10. home vs Brighton: 0 offsides won

Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?

Show 64 findings

Sun 30 Aug home vs Fulham · Finishing + 1 goals from 1.75 expected (-0.75)

Sun 30 Aug home vs Fulham · Threat by half + own threat 0.07 → 1.69 xG, opponents 0.46 → 0.32

Sun 30 Aug home vs Fulham · Goalkeeper − 0 saves

Sun 30 Aug home vs Fulham · Shooting accuracy − 4/12 shots on target (33 %)

Sun 30 Aug home vs Fulham · Discipline − 0 cards, 10 fouls

Sun 30 Aug home vs Fulham · Duels + 57 % of duels won (57/100)

Sun 30 Aug home vs Fulham · Possession and duels − possession 42 %, duels 57 %

Sun 30 Aug home vs Fulham · Set pieces − 3 corners, 4 conceded

Sun 30 Aug home vs Fulham · Own box − 5 shots against from inside the box (9 in total)

Sun 30 Aug home vs Fulham · Box pressure + 9/12 shots from inside the box

Sun 20 Sep away vs Manchester City · Finishing + 3 goals from 3.57 expected (-0.57)

Sun 20 Sep away vs Manchester City · Goalkeeper − 1 saves

Sun 20 Sep away vs Manchester City · Shooting accuracy − 9/17 shots on target (53 %)

Sun 20 Sep away vs Manchester City · Discipline − 1 cards, 14 fouls

Sun 20 Sep away vs Manchester City · Duels + 59 % of duels won (57/96)

Sun 20 Sep away vs Manchester City · Possession and duels − possession 45 %, duels 59 %

Sun 20 Sep away vs Manchester City · Set pieces − 5 corners, 6 conceded

Sun 20 Sep away vs Manchester City · Own box + 12 shots against from inside the box (16 in total)

Sun 20 Sep away vs Manchester City · Box pressure + 14/17 shots from inside the box

Sun 18 Oct away vs Bournemouth · Threat by half − own threat 0.07 → 0.06 xG, opponents 1.95 → 2.45

Sun 18 Oct away vs Bournemouth · Goalkeeper + 4 saves

Sun 18 Oct away vs Bournemouth · Shooting accuracy + 0/3 shots on target (0 %)

Sun 18 Oct away vs Bournemouth · Discipline + 3 cards, 7 fouls

Sun 18 Oct away vs Bournemouth · Duels − 50 % of duels won (46/92)

Sun 18 Oct away vs Bournemouth · Possession and duels − possession 35 %, duels 50 %

Sun 18 Oct away vs Bournemouth · Own box + 21 shots against from inside the box (29 in total)

Sun 18 Oct away vs Bournemouth · Box pressure − 2/3 shots from inside the box

Sat 5 Sep away vs Brentford · Finishing + 1 goals from 1.71 expected (-0.71)

Sat 5 Sep away vs Brentford · Threat by half + own threat 0.35 → 1.36 xG, opponents 0.35 → 0.85

Sat 5 Sep away vs Brentford · Goalkeeper − 1 saves

Sat 5 Sep away vs Brentford · Shooting accuracy − 5/14 shots on target (36 %)

Sat 5 Sep away vs Brentford · Defensive line − 0 offsides won

Sat 5 Sep away vs Brentford · Discipline + 2 cards, 9 fouls

Sat 5 Sep away vs Brentford · Duels + 59 % of duels won (73/123)

Sat 5 Sep away vs Brentford · Possession and duels − possession 51 %, duels 59 %

Sat 5 Sep away vs Brentford · Set pieces − 3 corners, 4 conceded

Sat 5 Sep away vs Brentford · Own box − 7 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)

Sat 5 Sep away vs Brentford · Box pressure + 10/14 shots from inside the box

Sat 22 Aug away vs Ipswich · Threat by half − own threat 0.58 → 0.17 xG, opponents 0.95 → 0.79

Sat 22 Aug away vs Ipswich · Goalkeeper − 1 saves

Sat 22 Aug away vs Ipswich · Shooting accuracy − 4/11 shots on target (36 %)

Sat 22 Aug away vs Ipswich · Discipline + 3 cards, 14 fouls

Sat 22 Aug away vs Ipswich · Duels − 46 % of duels won (52/114)

Sat 22 Aug away vs Ipswich · Possession and duels + possession 62 %, duels 46 %

Sat 22 Aug away vs Ipswich · Set pieces − 5 corners, 3 conceded

Sat 22 Aug away vs Ipswich · Own box + 8 shots against from inside the box (10 in total)

Sat 12 Sep home vs Arsenal · Finishing + 0 goals from 1.80 expected (-1.80)

Sat 12 Sep home vs Arsenal · Threat by half + own threat 0.23 → 1.57 xG, opponents 0.77 → 1.11

Sat 12 Sep home vs Arsenal · Goalkeeper − 3 saves

Sat 12 Sep home vs Arsenal · Shooting accuracy + 3/12 shots on target (25 %)

Sat 12 Sep home vs Arsenal · Discipline + 7 cards, 18 fouls

Sat 12 Sep home vs Arsenal · Duels − 41 % of duels won (37/90)

Sat 12 Sep home vs Arsenal · Possession and duels − possession 43 %, duels 41 %

Sat 12 Sep home vs Arsenal · Own box + 8 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)

Sat 10 Oct home vs Brighton · Finishing + 0 goals from 0.68 expected (-0.68)

Sat 10 Oct home vs Brighton · Threat by half − own threat 0.43 → 0.25 xG, opponents 0.47 → 0.67

Sat 10 Oct home vs Brighton · Goalkeeper − 2 saves

Sat 10 Oct home vs Brighton · Shooting accuracy + 3/12 shots on target (25 %)

Sat 10 Oct home vs Brighton · Defensive line − 0 offsides won

Sat 10 Oct home vs Brighton · Discipline − 0 cards, 8 fouls

Sat 10 Oct home vs Brighton · Duels − 50 % of duels won (52/104)

Sat 10 Oct home vs Brighton · Possession and duels − possession 62 %, duels 50 %

Sat 10 Oct home vs Brighton · Set pieces + 7 corners, 5 conceded

Sat 10 Oct home vs Brighton · Own box − 6 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)

A finding is one measured item from one match. A + mark supports the pattern, a − challenges it.

Suljetut hypoteesit (5)

What is closed is not deleted: it shows what we thought and why the view changed.

Hypothesis 1 · Duels State · closed · 7 matches

Duels appear to carry this team's game.

Supports

+ Sun 30.8. home vs Fulham: 57 % of duels won (57/100)

+ Sun 20.9. away vs Manchester City: 59 % of duels won (57/96)

+ Sat 5.9. away vs Brentford: 59 % of duels won (73/123)

Challenges

− Sun 18.10. away vs Bournemouth: 50 % of duels won (46/92)

− Sat 22.8. away vs Ipswich: 46 % of duels won (52/114)

− Sat 12.9. home vs Arsenal: 41 % of duels won (37/90)

− Sat 10.10. home vs Brighton: 50 % of duels won (52/104)

Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?

Hypothesis 2 · Shooting accuracy State · closed · 7 matches

Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.

Supports

+ Sun 18.10. away vs Bournemouth: 0/3 shots on target (0 %)

+ Sat 12.9. home vs Arsenal: 3/12 shots on target (25 %)

+ Sat 10.10. home vs Brighton: 3/12 shots on target (25 %)

Challenges

− Sun 30.8. home vs Fulham: 4/12 shots on target (33 %)

− Sun 20.9. away vs Manchester City: 9/17 shots on target (53 %)

− Sat 5.9. away vs Brentford: 5/14 shots on target (36 %)

− Sat 22.8. away vs Ipswich: 4/11 shots on target (36 %)

Last season 32 % of shots on target (126 / 395) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?

Hypothesis 3 · Set pieces State · closed · 5 matches

Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.

Supports

+ Sat 10.10. home vs Brighton: 7 corners, 5 conceded

Challenges

− Sun 30.8. home vs Fulham: 3 corners, 4 conceded

− Sun 20.9. away vs Manchester City: 5 corners, 6 conceded

− Sat 5.9. away vs Brentford: 3 corners, 4 conceded

− Sat 22.8. away vs Ipswich: 5 corners, 3 conceded

Last season 3.7 corners in the match, 5.3 against ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?

Hypothesis 4 · Possession and duels State · closed · 7 matches

Possession may not be matched by duel wins.

Supports

+ Sat 22.8. away vs Ipswich: possession 62 %, duels 46 %

Challenges

− Sun 30.8. home vs Fulham: possession 42 %, duels 57 %

− Sun 20.9. away vs Manchester City: possession 45 %, duels 59 %

− Sun 18.10. away vs Bournemouth: possession 35 %, duels 50 %

− Sat 5.9. away vs Brentford: possession 51 %, duels 59 %

− Sat 12.9. home vs Arsenal: possession 43 %, duels 41 %

− Sat 10.10. home vs Brighton: possession 62 %, duels 50 %

Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?

Hypothesis 5 · Goalkeeper State · closed · 7 matches

The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.

Supports

+ Sun 18.10. away vs Bournemouth: 4 saves

Challenges

− Sun 30.8. home vs Fulham: 0 saves

− Sun 20.9. away vs Manchester City: 1 saves

− Sat 5.9. away vs Brentford: 1 saves

− Sat 22.8. away vs Ipswich: 1 saves

− Sat 12.9. home vs Arsenal: 3 saves

− Sat 10.10. home vs Brighton: 2 saves

Last season 71 % of shots on target kept out (48 conceded / 167) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?

● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · match statistics

Measured numbers for the season

Style of play · season 2026-27

Line: deep line: the offside trap sprang only 5 times (19./20) ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · offsides and shot locations

Progression: progression mid-table: 34.7 passes per shot, possession 49 % ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · passes and shots

Set pieces: in attack 30 corners (league 13./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 29 corners against (16./20), no headed goals conceded ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · corners and goal types

Second half: own end leaks late (concessions 5+9); own threat rose in the second half in 4 of 7 matches (median +0.43 xG, league +0.15); opponents' threat rose in the second half in 5 of 7 matches (median +0.34 xG, league +0.15); first substitution on average at minute 59 ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · goals and substitutions by minute

Game state: Leading 2 % of playing time, level 58 %, trailing 39 %. ● minutes from goal events · ○ interpretation

Threat by half, average of 7 matches (gold = Sunderland): own threat rose in the second half in 4 of 7 matches, median +0.43 xG (league +0.15). Two-half split, not a minute curve.

Tracking · season 2026-27

Attacking inefficiency: 6 goals from 10.40 expected (xG), a gap of -4.40, league 19./20 ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · match statistics
We track whether the finishing corrects or the deficit continues: the same metric is read after every round.

The second half sharpens: Threat rose in the second half in 4 of 7 matches, median +0.43 xG per match (league +0.15). Without the single largest match (vs Fulham, +1.62) the average is +0.36, and without matches where they were behind at half-time (2) +0.68 ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · match statistics
We track whether the second-half sharpening repeats: is it structure or the opponent.

One round is not a trend, so each line says what we track next.

Last season's baseline

The baseline is the 2025-26 squad. Since then these players left: Lutsharel Geertruida. ● season 2025-26 minutes · current squad

Analyst's take

Sunderland sijoittui 7:nneksi, vaikka ansiotaso vastasi 18. sijaa.

The same direction showed in defence: the team conceded 48 goals while chance quality projected 55.3.

Analytical synthesis Comebacks from losing positions (11 points rescued) are not luck: 69 % of goals come in the second half. This team plays its matches on a long arc; the half-time score says less about this team than about others. ○ interpretation · every number computed from season 2025-26 ●

Insights

Nordi Mukiele produced exceptionally for a defender: 8 goal involvements.

● season 2025-26 · goal involvements from full-season round data

● Sunderland's 7. place rested on results, not performances; on merit only 18., the league's widest gap.

● One stretch cost the season: 3 straight defeats in February.

● 2 players in the XI carry knocks; the line-up may change.

Attack: who produced the goals and assists

	Finishing goals vs xG	Chance creation assists vs xA
Defenders	+1.0	+1.4
Midfield	−0.9	+2.1
Forwards	+2.6	−1.1

Defence, team level

Chance prevention
little danger

−1.1

Shot-stopping
conceded vs chances

+5.3

Data profile · style, character, output ●

Style of play Low block: 36 % of shots conceded from outside the box, forces opponents to shoot from range. Plays without the ball: possession 45 % (league's 5. lowest); space comes from transitions. 69% of the goals came in the second half; the attack sharpens late. Rotation 1.7 line-up changes/round. ● season 2025-26 · half-time split from result data · rotation from round data · style from match stats (possession, passes, offsides)

Character Recovered 11 points from losing positions (5 matches) and dropped 8 points from leads (4 matches). One-goal matches 10–4. Home fortress: 33 points at home, 21 away. ● season 2025-26 · HT–FT turnarounds from results data

Output Of shots on target, 33 % went in; of those faced, 29 %. Corners 3.7 vs 5.3 per match · 80 yellows + 3 reds over the season. ● season 2025-26 · shots on target, corners and cards from results data

Player readings · 1

● Brian Brobbey produced 47 % of the xGI of players classed as forwards in Sunderland's register (3 comparable players).

Formation change · preliminary

● ● 4-3-3 → 4-2-3-1 · points 1.6 → 2.0/match · xGD -0.2 → -0.4 · before 5 matches, after 3 matches

Signals established profile season 2026-27 ●

What we don't know yet

no active hypothesis

TEAM IDENTITY

Home ground

Stadium of Light

The Stadium of Light opened on 30.7.1997, replacing Roker Park, home for 99 years.

source: Wikipedia, Stadium of Light

TEAM MEMORY

1879

Sunderland founded

Teachers found the club as the Sunderland and District Teachers' Association Football Club.

source: Sunderland AFC (safc.com), 1879 Beginnings