”It is better to fail aiming high than to succeed aiming low.”
Bill Nicholson, Tottenhamin valmentaja 1958–1974
THE SQUAD
● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 8
NEXT CHECK
LAST MATCH
Chelsea – Tottenham 0–2 (half-time 0–0) · goals: Tel
PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT
No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.
Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Tottenham shoot this season 14.1 times per match (11th in the league, last season 11.5 and 14th in the league), Chelsea: 12.4 shots conceded (league 8.). The match's shot count tells which number held.
What happened: the pressure held: 15 shots (baseline 14.1, opponent concedes 12.4).
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Tottenham score this season from 6.1 percent of their shots (19th in the league, last season 11.0 and 10th in the league), Chelsea: save percentage on shots on target 68.3 (league 8.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created.
What happened: the finishing held: 2 goals from 0.80 expected (+1.20), 13 % of shots scored.
Third: Set pieces. Tottenham win this season 6.6 corners per match (1st in the league, last season 5.5 and 7th in the league), Chelsea: 5.4 corners conceded (league 3.). The expectation is at least 5 corners.
What happened: expectation met: 6 corners (expected 5), 2 goals.
Fourth: Set pieces without output. 46 corners (league 1./20) and 6 goals
What happened: observation did not repeat, 6 corners and 2 goals.
One more: Player pick. Sávio is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 21.0 points on average in 4 matches, top three 2 times.
What happened: Player pick did not hold: Sávio did not play in this match (not in the match ratings, which cover everyone who played).
Finally: Style of play. Keeps the ball: possession 60 % and 532 passes/match (league 3.).
What happened: Style claim held: possession 68 % (league level 50 %).
From this match: 4/6 held
Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.
MANAGER'S CORNER · FANTASY
Substituted off in round 8 (65 min) ●
Historically 1 186 regular starters were substituted off by the 65th minute (for any reason): 46 % did not start the next match (all starters: 15 %) ●
Substituted off in round 8 (65 min) ●
Benched in round 8, came on for 25 min ●
Match ratings in the last 4 matches: 7.6 · 7.7 · 7.1 · 7.2 (avg 7.4) ▷
TEAM BASELINE
Left after the 2025-26 season: João Gonçalves (2192 min, goals+assists 5+3, 11 % of the team's goals, no longer in a league squad); Kolo Muani (1655 min, goals+assists 1+1, 2 % of the team's goals, no longer in a league squad); Kevin Danso (1489 min, goals+assists 0+0, now Sunderland).
New starters: Van Hecke (8 starts, came from Brighton); Sandro Tonali (8 starts, came from Newcastle); Omar Marmoush (6 starts, came from Man City); Andrew Robertson (6 starts, came from Liverpool) and 4 more.
The team reaches the box: 10/16 shots from inside the box (Mon 19.10. home vs Coventry).
Last quarter hour · Tottenham gained 3 points after the 75th minute.
The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.
+ Mon 19.10. home vs Coventry: 10/16 shots from inside the box
Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?
Last season 11.5 shots in the match (no box split from last season, so the comparison is shot count)
Hypothesis 2 · Own box State · strengthening · 8 matches
Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.
Supports
+ Mon 19.10. home vs Coventry: 11 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
+ Sat 22.8. away vs Brentford: 20 shots against from inside the box (26 in total)
+ Sat 19.9. home vs Aston Villa: 9 shots against from inside the box (15 in total)
+ Sat 12.9. home vs Everton: 9 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Manchester United: 8 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
Challenges
− Sat 5.9. away vs Nottingham Forest: 5 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
− Sat 29.8. home vs Newcastle: 7 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)
− Sat 24.10. away vs Chelsea: 6 shots against from inside the box (7 in total)
Holds up across game states: in close periods 70 % of opponents' shots from inside the box, league 5/20 (12 periods).
Last season 12.2 shots against in the match (no box split)
Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?
Hypothesis 3 · Finishing State · strengthening · 6 matches
Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.
Supports
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Nottingham Forest: 0 goals from 1.06 expected (-1.06)
+ Sat 29.8. home vs Newcastle: 0 goals from 1.04 expected (-1.04)
+ Sat 12.9. home vs Everton: 0 goals from 0.69 expected (-0.69)
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Manchester United: 1 goals from 1.68 expected (-0.68)
Challenges
− Mon 19.10. home vs Coventry: 3 goals from 0.90 expected (+2.10)
− Sat 24.10. away vs Chelsea: 2 goals from 0.80 expected (+1.20)
Last season 1.3 goals and 11.5 shots in the match, 11 % of shots scored
Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?
Hypothesis 4 · Shooting accuracy State · mixed · 8 matches
Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.
Supports
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Nottingham Forest: 0/11 shots on target (0 %)
+ Sat 24.10. away vs Chelsea: 4/15 shots on target (27 %)
+ Sat 12.9. home vs Everton: 2/14 shots on target (14 %)
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Manchester United: 3/12 shots on target (25 %)
Challenges
− Mon 19.10. home vs Coventry: 5/16 shots on target (31 %)
− Sat 29.8. home vs Newcastle: 6/17 shots on target (35 %)
− Sat 22.8. away vs Brentford: 4/9 shots on target (44 %)
− Sat 19.9. home vs Aston Villa: 7/20 shots on target (35 %)
Holds up across game states: in close periods 26 % of shots on target, league 16/20 (12 periods).
Last season 34 % of shots on target (150 / 436)
Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?
Hypothesis 5 · Possession and duels State · mixed · 8 matches
Possession may not be matched by duel wins.
Supports
+ Sat 29.8. home vs Newcastle: possession 58 %, duels 47 %
+ Sat 22.8. away vs Brentford: possession 59 %, duels 48 %
+ Sat 12.9. home vs Everton: possession 62 %, duels 43 %
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Manchester United: possession 55 %, duels 45 %
Challenges
− Mon 19.10. home vs Coventry: possession 66 %, duels 50 %
− Sat 5.9. away vs Nottingham Forest: possession 59 %, duels 52 %
− Sat 24.10. away vs Chelsea: possession 68 %, duels 58 %
− Sat 19.9. home vs Aston Villa: possession 64 %, duels 59 %
Holds up across game states: in close periods 61 % possession, league 2/20 (12 periods).
Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?
Hypothesis 6 · Defensive line Status · new · 1 match
The defence appears to hold a high line.
Supports
+ Sat 22.8. away vs Brentford: 3 offsides won
Challenges
No counter-evidence yet.
Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?
Hypothesis 7 · Threat by half State · declining · 4 matches
The threat appears weighted towards the second half.
Supports
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Nottingham Forest: own threat 0.08 → 0.99 xG, opponents 0.49 → 0.43
Challenges
− Sat 24.10. away vs Chelsea: own threat 0.46 → 0.34 xG, opponents 0.26 → 0.29
− Sat 12.9. home vs Everton: own threat 0.36 → 0.33 xG, opponents 0.15 → 0.96
− Sat 10.10. away vs Manchester United: own threat 0.99 → 0.69 xG, opponents 0.09 → 0.79
Last season 58 % of goals came in the second half (28 / 48)
Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?
Mon 19 Oct home vs Coventry · Finishing − 3 goals from 0.90 expected (+2.10)
Mon 19 Oct home vs Coventry · Goalkeeper − 0 saves
Mon 19 Oct home vs Coventry · Shooting accuracy − 5/16 shots on target (31 %)
Mon 19 Oct home vs Coventry · Discipline − 1 cards, 15 fouls
Mon 19 Oct home vs Coventry · Duels − 50 % of duels won (58/117)
Mon 19 Oct home vs Coventry · Possession and duels − possession 66 %, duels 50 %
Mon 19 Oct home vs Coventry · Set pieces − 4 corners, 4 conceded
Mon 19 Oct home vs Coventry · Own box + 11 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
Mon 19 Oct home vs Coventry · Box pressure + 10/16 shots from inside the box
Sat 5 Sep away vs Nottingham Forest · Finishing + 0 goals from 1.06 expected (-1.06)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Nottingham Forest · Threat by half + own threat 0.08 → 0.99 xG, opponents 0.49 → 0.43
Sat 5 Sep away vs Nottingham Forest · Goalkeeper − 1 saves
Sat 5 Sep away vs Nottingham Forest · Shooting accuracy + 0/11 shots on target (0 %)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Nottingham Forest · Discipline + 2 cards, 14 fouls
Sat 5 Sep away vs Nottingham Forest · Duels + 52 % of duels won (66/127)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Nottingham Forest · Possession and duels − possession 59 %, duels 52 %
Sat 5 Sep away vs Nottingham Forest · Set pieces + 10 corners, 2 conceded
Sat 5 Sep away vs Nottingham Forest · Own box − 5 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Nottingham Forest · Box pressure + 8/11 shots from inside the box
Sat 29 Aug home vs Newcastle · Finishing + 0 goals from 1.04 expected (-1.04)
Sat 29 Aug home vs Newcastle · Goalkeeper − 0 saves
Sat 29 Aug home vs Newcastle · Shooting accuracy − 6/17 shots on target (35 %)
Sat 29 Aug home vs Newcastle · Discipline − 1 cards, 15 fouls
Sat 29 Aug home vs Newcastle · Duels − 47 % of duels won (37/78)
Sat 29 Aug home vs Newcastle · Possession and duels + possession 58 %, duels 47 %
Sat 29 Aug home vs Newcastle · Set pieces + 9 corners, 7 conceded
Sat 29 Aug home vs Newcastle · Own box − 7 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)
Sat 29 Aug home vs Newcastle · Box pressure + 10/17 shots from inside the box
Sat 24 Oct away vs Chelsea · Finishing − 2 goals from 0.80 expected (+1.20)
Sat 24 Oct away vs Chelsea · Threat by half − own threat 0.46 → 0.34 xG, opponents 0.26 → 0.29
Sat 24 Oct away vs Chelsea · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Sat 24 Oct away vs Chelsea · Shooting accuracy + 4/15 shots on target (27 %)
Sat 24 Oct away vs Chelsea · Discipline + 3 cards, 14 fouls
Sat 24 Oct away vs Chelsea · Duels + 58 % of duels won (64/110)
Sat 24 Oct away vs Chelsea · Possession and duels − possession 68 %, duels 58 %
Sat 24 Oct away vs Chelsea · Set pieces − 6 corners, 4 conceded
Sat 24 Oct away vs Chelsea · Own box − 6 shots against from inside the box (7 in total)
Sat 24 Oct away vs Chelsea · Box pressure + 8/15 shots from inside the box
Sat 22 Aug away vs Brentford · Goalkeeper + 5 saves
Sat 22 Aug away vs Brentford · Shooting accuracy − 4/9 shots on target (44 %)
Sat 22 Aug away vs Brentford · Defensive line + 3 offsides won
Sat 22 Aug away vs Brentford · Discipline − 1 cards, 14 fouls
Sat 22 Aug away vs Brentford · Duels − 48 % of duels won (57/118)
Sat 22 Aug away vs Brentford · Possession and duels + possession 59 %, duels 48 %
Sat 22 Aug away vs Brentford · Own box + 20 shots against from inside the box (26 in total)
Sat 19 Sep home vs Aston Villa · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sat 19 Sep home vs Aston Villa · Shooting accuracy − 7/20 shots on target (35 %)
Sat 19 Sep home vs Aston Villa · Discipline − 1 cards, 9 fouls
Sat 19 Sep home vs Aston Villa · Duels + 59 % of duels won (65/111)
Sat 19 Sep home vs Aston Villa · Possession and duels − possession 64 %, duels 59 %
Sat 19 Sep home vs Aston Villa · Set pieces − 11 corners, 1 conceded
Sat 19 Sep home vs Aston Villa · Own box + 9 shots against from inside the box (15 in total)
Sat 19 Sep home vs Aston Villa · Box pressure + 12/20 shots from inside the box
Sat 12 Sep home vs Everton · Finishing + 0 goals from 0.69 expected (-0.69)
Sat 12 Sep home vs Everton · Threat by half − own threat 0.36 → 0.33 xG, opponents 0.15 → 0.96
Sat 12 Sep home vs Everton · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sat 12 Sep home vs Everton · Shooting accuracy + 2/14 shots on target (14 %)
Sat 12 Sep home vs Everton · Discipline − 0 cards, 14 fouls
Sat 12 Sep home vs Everton · Duels − 43 % of duels won (41/95)
Sat 12 Sep home vs Everton · Possession and duels + possession 62 %, duels 43 %
Sat 12 Sep home vs Everton · Set pieces + 5 corners, 6 conceded
Sat 12 Sep home vs Everton · Own box + 9 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
Sat 12 Sep home vs Everton · Box pressure + 8/14 shots from inside the box
Sat 10 Oct away vs Manchester United · Finishing + 1 goals from 1.68 expected (-0.68)
Sat 10 Oct away vs Manchester United · Threat by half − own threat 0.99 → 0.69 xG, opponents 0.09 → 0.79
Sat 10 Oct away vs Manchester United · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sat 10 Oct away vs Manchester United · Shooting accuracy + 3/12 shots on target (25 %)
Sat 10 Oct away vs Manchester United · Discipline + 4 cards, 16 fouls
Sat 10 Oct away vs Manchester United · Duels − 45 % of duels won (50/111)
Sat 10 Oct away vs Manchester United · Possession and duels + possession 55 %, duels 45 %
Sat 10 Oct away vs Manchester United · Set pieces − 4 corners, 4 conceded
Sat 10 Oct away vs Manchester United · Own box + 8 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
Sat 10 Oct away vs Manchester United · Box pressure + 8/12 shots from inside the box
Hypothesis 1 · Set pieces State · closed · 7 matches
Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.
Supports
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Nottingham Forest: 10 corners, 2 conceded
+ Sat 29.8. home vs Newcastle: 9 corners, 7 conceded
+ Sat 12.9. home vs Everton: 5 corners, 6 conceded
Challenges
− Mon 19.10. home vs Coventry: 4 corners, 4 conceded
− Sat 24.10. away vs Chelsea: 6 corners, 4 conceded
− Sat 19.9. home vs Aston Villa: 11 corners, 1 conceded
− Sat 10.10. away vs Manchester United: 4 corners, 4 conceded
Holds up across game states: in close periods 3.5 corners per 45 min, league 1/20 (12 periods).
Last season 5.5 corners in the match, 4.7 against
Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?
Hypothesis 2 · Duels State · closed · 8 matches
Duels appear to carry this team's game.
Supports
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Nottingham Forest: 52 % of duels won (66/127)
+ Sat 24.10. away vs Chelsea: 58 % of duels won (64/110)
+ Sat 19.9. home vs Aston Villa: 59 % of duels won (65/111)
Challenges
− Mon 19.10. home vs Coventry: 50 % of duels won (58/117)
− Sat 29.8. home vs Newcastle: 47 % of duels won (37/78)
− Sat 22.8. away vs Brentford: 48 % of duels won (57/118)
− Sat 12.9. home vs Everton: 43 % of duels won (41/95)
− Sat 10.10. away vs Manchester United: 45 % of duels won (50/111)
Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?
Hypothesis 3 · Discipline State · closed · 8 matches
The cost of indiscipline may rise.
Supports
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Nottingham Forest: 2 cards, 14 fouls
+ Sat 24.10. away vs Chelsea: 3 cards, 14 fouls
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Manchester United: 4 cards, 16 fouls
Challenges
− Mon 19.10. home vs Coventry: 1 cards, 15 fouls
− Sat 29.8. home vs Newcastle: 1 cards, 15 fouls
− Sat 22.8. away vs Brentford: 1 cards, 14 fouls
− Sat 19.9. home vs Aston Villa: 1 cards, 9 fouls
− Sat 12.9. home vs Everton: 0 cards, 14 fouls
Last season 2.7 cards and 12.2 fouls in the match
Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?
Hypothesis 4 · Goalkeeper State · closed · 8 matches
The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.
Supports
+ Sat 24.10. away vs Chelsea: 4 saves
+ Sat 22.8. away vs Brentford: 5 saves
Challenges
− Mon 19.10. home vs Coventry: 0 saves
− Sat 5.9. away vs Nottingham Forest: 1 saves
− Sat 29.8. home vs Newcastle: 0 saves
− Sat 19.9. home vs Aston Villa: 3 saves
− Sat 12.9. home vs Everton: 3 saves
− Sat 10.10. away vs Manchester United: 3 saves
Last season 63 % of shots on target kept out (57 conceded / 154)
Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?
Line: line mid-table: 14 offsides drawn; box open: 70 % of shots conceded came from inside the box
Progression: progression mid-table: 38.4 passes per shot, possession 61 %
Set pieces: in attack 52 corners (league 1./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 35 corners against (12./20), no headed goals conceded
Second half: output weighted to the second half (1+7 goals); own end leaks late (concessions 3+7); own threat rose in the second half in 4 of 8 matches (median +0.02 xG, league +0.15); opponents' threat rose in the second half in 6 of 8 matches (median +0.20 xG, league +0.15); first substitution on average at minute 55
When leading: withstood the pressure: led at half-time once and won, although the opponent's threat grew (opponent xG vs Coventry 0.33 → 0.50)
Game state: Leading 11 % of playing time, level 66 %, trailing 23 %.
Set pieces without output: 52 corners (league 1./20) and 8 goals
We track whether set pieces start producing goals or the pressure stays barren.
Holds up across game states: in close periods 3.5 corners per 45 min, league 1/20 (12 periods).
No route into the box: 40 % of shots from outside the box (league 4./20) and chance quality only 0.072 xG per shot (20./20)
We track whether shot locations move closer to goal or the long-range share stays where it is.
Does not stand out in close periods: 36 % of shots from outside the box, league 10/20 (12 periods). The game state explains the number at least in part.
| Finishing goals vs xG | Chance creation assists vs xA | |
| Defenders | +4.4 | −5.6 |
| Midfield | +1.5 | +6.6 |
| Forwards | +1.8 | −1.3 |
TEAM IDENTITY
Home ground
Tottenham's stadium opened in 2019 and is the first outside the USA designed for NFL games: the grass pitch slides away.
source: Populous (stadionin suunnittelija), Tottenham Hotspur Stadium hosts first NFL gamesTEAM MEMORY
The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium opens against Crystal Palace.
source: Populous (stadionin suunnittelija)