Signals ⚽ · My team

MY CLUB

Aston Villa

”Prepared”, valmis

THE SQUAD

GKSuzuki

DEFCash

DEFLindelöf

DEFPau

DEFMaatsen

MIDKamara

MIDGomes

MIDAlysson

MIDMcGinn

MIDManzambi

FWDN.Jackson

● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 8

fitness concernformno measured deviation

No measured deviations in the core squad right now.

Bench

MIDMbayeFWDAbrahamMIDGarnachoMIDGoretzkaMIDBogarde

NEXT CHECK

LAST MATCH

Aston Villa – Man City 2–1 (half-time 1–0) · goals: N.Jackson 2 ● result: round data

Sat 24 Oct

PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT

No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.

Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Aston Villa shoot this season 11.9 times per match (15th in the league, last season 12.7 and 9th in the league), Man City: 11.4 shots conceded (league 6.). The match's shot count tells which number held. ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · last season for comparison
What happened: the defence won: 8 shots (baseline 11.9, opponent concedes 11.4). ● round data
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Aston Villa score this season from 8.4 percent of their shots (12th in the league, last season 11.6 and 4th in the league), Man City: save percentage on shots on target 75.9 (league 7.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created. ●
What happened: the finishing held: 2 goals from 0.64 expected (+1.36), 25 % of shots scored. ●
Third: Set pieces. Aston Villa win this season 3.1 corners per match (20th in the league, last season 5.2 and 8th in the league), Man City: 4.1 corners conceded (league 17.). The expectation is at least 3 corners. ●
What happened: expectation met: 4 corners (expected 3), 2 goals. ●
Fourth: The second half fades. Threat fell in the second half in 4 of 6 matches, median −0.35 xG per match (league +0.19). Without the single largest match (vs Hull City, +0.79) the average is −0.35, and without matches where they were ahead at half-time (2) −0.07 ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · match statistics
What happened: observation repeated, threat 0.40 → 0.24 xG. ●
One more: Rhythm. Threat fell in the second half in 4 of 6 matches, median −0.35 xG per match (league +0.19). Without the single largest match (vs Hull City, +0.79) the average is −0.35, and without matches where they were ahead at half-time (2) −0.07. ● season 2026-27 · 6 matches before the round · threat by half
What happened: Rytmiväite piti (aloittaa terävästi): maalit tasan (1+1), uhka 0.40 → 0.24 xG, laukaukset 6 → 2. ●
Finally: Player pick. Johan Manzambi is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 26.5 points on average in 4 matches, top three 3 times. ● season 2026-27 · match ratings before the round
What happened: Player pick did not hold: Johan Manzambi ranked 9/16 in his team's match ratings. Match score 8, season average before the match 26.5. ●
And: Style of play. High defensive line: opponents offside 4.4 times/match (league 1.). ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · match statistics
What happened: Style claim held: 2 offsides drawn (league level 2.0). ●

From this match: 5/7 held

Threat by half (expected goals, gold = Aston Villa): shots 6/6 and 2/9 Two-half split, not a minute-by-minute curve.

Events by minute: Aston Villa on top, Man City below, 3 goals and 8 cards. Vertical lines at minutes 45 and 90. ● match events

Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.

This match's verdict on the Matches list →

NEXT MATCH

Aston Villa – Fulham

Sat 31.10. · 22:00 · ○ fixture info, as of 25.10.

This match's preview on the Matches list →

PREVIEW READING

These claims are graded against the outcome after the match.

Pressure against defence: Aston Villa shoot this season 11.9 times per match (15th in the league, last season 12.7 and 9th in the league), Fulham: 14.1 shots conceded (league 11.). The match's shot count tells which number held. ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · last season for comparison

Finishing against the goalkeeper: Aston Villa score this season from 8.4 percent of their shots (12th in the league, last season 11.6 and 4th in the league), Fulham: save percentage on shots on target 65.5 (league 11.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created. ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · last season for comparison

Set pieces: Aston Villa win this season 3.1 corners per match (20th in the league, last season 5.2 and 8th in the league), Fulham: 4.3 corners conceded (league 14.). The expectation is at least 3 corners. ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · last season for comparison

Opponents get into the box: 85 shots against from inside the box (3rd most of 20), 126 shots in total (67 % from the box) ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · match statistics

The second half fades: Threat fell in the second half in 5 of 7 matches, median −0.23 xG per match (league +0.15). Without the single largest match (vs Hull City, +0.79) the average is −0.32, and without matches where they were ahead at half-time (3) −0.07 ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · match statistics

Rytmi: Threat fell in the second half in 5 of 7 matches, median −0.23 xG per match (league +0.15). Without the single largest match (vs Hull City, +0.79) the average is −0.32, and without matches where they were ahead at half-time (3) −0.07. ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · threat by half

Style of play: High defensive line: opponents offside 4.1 times/match (league 1.). ● season 2026-27 · 8 matches before the round · match statistics

Baseline per match from last season: upper bar Aston Villa, lower Fulham, vertical line the league level. ● measured 2025-26

The watch-list is published. The opponent card fills in about two days before kick-off.

MANAGER'S CORNER · FANTASY

Player card

Buendía

Aston Villa · midfielder

Bench risk

Benched in round 8, came on for 24 min ●

Historically 3 257 regular starters dropped out of the line-up (for any reason): 60 % did not start the next match either (those who kept their place: 15 %) ●

xGI per round ●

Match rating 1–10 ▷ 6.0

Next matches ●FULhome

Compared with 105 midfielders, at least 270 min ●

xG / 90 min0.25

xA / 90 min0.06

Match rating (avg) ▷6.6

Playing time78 %

Season 2026-27, rounds 1–8559 min · 7/8 starts · 1 goals, 1 assists · xGI 1.9 ● measured

▷ in 1.3 % of teams · price 5.9

Player card

Tyrone Mings

Aston Villa · defender

Bench risk

Benched in round 8, no minutes ●

xGI per round ●

Next matches ●FULhome

Season 2026-27, rounds 1–8441 min · 4/8 starts · 0 goals, 0 assists · xGI 0.2 ● measured

▷ in 0.4 % of teams · price 4.5

Player card

Nicolas Jackson

Aston Villa · forward

In hot form

Match ratings in the last 4 matches: 7.9 · 8.2 · 6.5 · 8.9 (avg 7.9) ▷

Goals and assists Last 4 matches: goals 4 · assists 0 · xGI 1.9 ●

xGI per round ●

Next matches ●FULhome

Season 2026-27, rounds 1–8547 min · 7/8 starts · 4 goals, 0 assists · xGI 2.7 ● measured

▷ in 6.0 % of teams · price 6.7

Player card

Johan Manzambi

Aston Villa · midfielder

In hot form

Match ratings in the last 4 matches: 7.9 · 7.2 · 8.2 · 6.3 (avg 7.4) ▷

Goals and assists Last 4 matches: goals 2 · assists 2 · xGI 2.0 ●

xGI per round ●

Next matches ●FULhome

Season 2026-27, rounds 1–8319 min · 4/8 starts · 2 goals, 2 assists · xGI 2.1 ● measured

▷ in 3.4 % of teams · price 6.0

Every player in the league, form and risks → All players

TEAM BASELINE

Aston Villa

now 8th in the table · 11 pts ●

last season 4th · 13th on merit

→railo +9

Playing identity now Aston Villa defend with a high line. Same profile as last season. ● season 2026-27 · 8 matches · match stats: possession, passes, shots, offsides

What has changed?

Squad after the summer

Left after the 2025-26 season: Morgan Rogers (3280 min, goals+assists 10+8, 19 % of the team's goals, now Chelsea); Konsa (3035 min, goals+assists 0+1, now Arsenal); Martinez (2835 min, goals+assists 0+1, now Chelsea); Youri Tielemans (1857 min, goals+assists 0+4, now Man Utd) and 1 more.

New starters: Zion Suzuki (7 starts, from outside the league); Nicolas Jackson (7 starts, from outside the league); Joao Gomes (5 starts, from outside the league); Johan Manzambi (4 starts, from outside the league) and 2 more.

● season 2025-26 minutes, goals and assists · current squad and starts

The cost of indiscipline has grown: 4 cards, 9 fouls (Sun 23.8. away vs Brighton).

Signal hypothesis · strengthening · 8 matches

The cost of indiscipline may rise.

+ Sun 23.8. away vs Brighton: 4 cards, 9 fouls

− Sat 5.9. away vs Hull City: 0 cards, 5 fouls

Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?

Evidence in detail

Last season 1.6 cards and 10.0 fouls in the match ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Other tracked hypotheses (7)

Hypothesis 2 · Own box State · strengthening · 8 matches

Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.

Supports

+ Sun 23.8. away vs Brighton: 15 shots against from inside the box (21 in total)

+ Sat 24.10. home vs Manchester City: 12 shots against from inside the box (15 in total)

+ Sat 19.9. away vs Tottenham: 12 shots against from inside the box (20 in total)

+ Sat 17.10. away vs Newcastle: 11 shots against from inside the box (16 in total)

+ Sat 12.9. home vs Nottingham Forest: 14 shots against from inside the box (22 in total)

+ Sat 10.10. home vs Brentford: 12 shots against from inside the box (14 in total)

Challenges

− Mon 31.8. home vs Arsenal: 5 shots against from inside the box (7 in total)

− Sat 5.9. away vs Hull City: 4 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)

Weakens in close periods: 4.9 shots conceded from inside the box per 45 min, league 6/20 (13 periods). Part of the number comes from the game state. ● close period = margin of at most 1 goal for at least 75 % of the period's minutes · match stats by half

Last season 12.9 shots against in the match (no box split) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?

Hypothesis 3 · Defensive line State · strengthening · 5 matches

The defence appears to hold a high line.

Supports

+ Sun 23.8. away vs Brighton: 6 offsides won

+ Mon 31.8. home vs Arsenal: 8 offsides won

+ Sat 19.9. away vs Tottenham: 5 offsides won

+ Sat 17.10. away vs Newcastle: 5 offsides won

+ Sat 12.9. home vs Nottingham Forest: 4 offsides won

Challenges

No counter-evidence yet.

Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?

Hypothesis 4 · Shooting accuracy State · strengthening · 8 matches

Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.

Supports

+ Sun 23.8. away vs Brighton: 0/6 shots on target (0 %)

+ Mon 31.8. home vs Arsenal: 0/7 shots on target (0 %)

+ Sat 5.9. away vs Hull City: 1/13 shots on target (8 %)

+ Sat 24.10. home vs Manchester City: 2/8 shots on target (25 %)

+ Sat 17.10. away vs Newcastle: 3/15 shots on target (20 %)

Challenges

− Sat 19.9. away vs Tottenham: 6/15 shots on target (40 %)

− Sat 12.9. home vs Nottingham Forest: 5/7 shots on target (71 %)

− Sat 10.10. home vs Brentford: 7/20 shots on target (35 %)

Does not stand out in close periods: 27 % of shots on target, league 12/20 (13 periods). The game state explains the number at least in part. ● close period = margin of at most 1 goal for at least 75 % of the period's minutes · match stats by half

Last season 35 % of shots on target (170 / 483) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?

Hypothesis 5 · Box pressure State · strengthening · 6 matches

The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.

Supports

+ Sat 5.9. away vs Hull City: 10/13 shots from inside the box

+ Sat 19.9. away vs Tottenham: 9/15 shots from inside the box

+ Sat 17.10. away vs Newcastle: 11/15 shots from inside the box

+ Sat 10.10. home vs Brentford: 15/20 shots from inside the box

Challenges

− Sun 23.8. away vs Brighton: 2/6 shots from inside the box

− Mon 31.8. home vs Arsenal: 3/7 shots from inside the box

Last season 12.7 shots in the match (no box split from last season, so the comparison is shot count) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?

Hypothesis 6 · Goalkeeper State · mixed · 8 matches

The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.

Supports

+ Sat 5.9. away vs Hull City: 4 saves

+ Sat 24.10. home vs Manchester City: 6 saves

+ Sat 19.9. away vs Tottenham: 5 saves

+ Sat 12.9. home vs Nottingham Forest: 5 saves

Challenges

− Sun 23.8. away vs Brighton: 3 saves

− Mon 31.8. home vs Arsenal: 1 saves

− Sat 17.10. away vs Newcastle: 1 saves

− Sat 10.10. home vs Brentford: 3 saves

Last season 71 % of shots on target kept out (49 conceded / 168) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?

Hypothesis 7 · Finishing State · mixed · 4 matches

Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.

Supports

+ Sat 5.9. away vs Hull City: 0 goals from 1.93 expected (-1.93)

+ Sat 17.10. away vs Newcastle: 1 goals from 1.63 expected (-0.63)

Challenges

− Sat 24.10. home vs Manchester City: 2 goals from 0.64 expected (+1.36)

− Sat 19.9. away vs Tottenham: 3 goals from 1.16 expected (+1.84)

Last season 1.5 goals and 12.7 shots in the match, 12 % of shots scored ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?

Hypothesis 8 · Threat by half State · declining · 4 matches

The threat appears weighted towards the second half.

Supports

+ Sat 5.9. away vs Hull City: own threat 0.57 → 1.36 xG, opponents 0.08 → 0.49

Challenges

− Sun 23.8. away vs Brighton: own threat 0.18 → 0.13 xG, opponents 2.96 → 0.71

− Sat 12.9. home vs Nottingham Forest: own threat 0.65 → 0.17 xG, opponents 0.39 → 1.89

− Sat 10.10. home vs Brentford: own threat 1.28 → 0.56 xG, opponents 0.56 → 0.75

Last season 62 % of goals came in the second half (35 / 56) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?

Show 70 findings

Sun 23 Aug away vs Brighton · Threat by half − own threat 0.18 → 0.13 xG, opponents 2.96 → 0.71

Sun 23 Aug away vs Brighton · Goalkeeper − 3 saves

Sun 23 Aug away vs Brighton · Shooting accuracy + 0/6 shots on target (0 %)

Sun 23 Aug away vs Brighton · Defensive line + 6 offsides won

Sun 23 Aug away vs Brighton · Discipline + 4 cards, 9 fouls

Sun 23 Aug away vs Brighton · Duels − 48 % of duels won (46/96)

Sun 23 Aug away vs Brighton · Possession and duels − possession 27 %, duels 48 %

Sun 23 Aug away vs Brighton · Own box + 15 shots against from inside the box (21 in total)

Sun 23 Aug away vs Brighton · Box pressure − 2/6 shots from inside the box

Mon 31 Aug home vs Arsenal · Goalkeeper − 1 saves

Mon 31 Aug home vs Arsenal · Shooting accuracy + 0/7 shots on target (0 %)

Mon 31 Aug home vs Arsenal · Defensive line + 8 offsides won

Mon 31 Aug home vs Arsenal · Discipline + 3 cards, 17 fouls

Mon 31 Aug home vs Arsenal · Duels − 43 % of duels won (39/90)

Mon 31 Aug home vs Arsenal · Possession and duels − possession 39 %, duels 43 %

Mon 31 Aug home vs Arsenal · Own box − 5 shots against from inside the box (7 in total)

Mon 31 Aug home vs Arsenal · Box pressure − 3/7 shots from inside the box

Sat 5 Sep away vs Hull City · Finishing + 0 goals from 1.93 expected (-1.93)

Sat 5 Sep away vs Hull City · Threat by half + own threat 0.57 → 1.36 xG, opponents 0.08 → 0.49

Sat 5 Sep away vs Hull City · Goalkeeper + 4 saves

Sat 5 Sep away vs Hull City · Shooting accuracy + 1/13 shots on target (8 %)

Sat 5 Sep away vs Hull City · Discipline − 0 cards, 5 fouls

Sat 5 Sep away vs Hull City · Duels − 45 % of duels won (38/84)

Sat 5 Sep away vs Hull City · Possession and duels + possession 74 %, duels 45 %

Sat 5 Sep away vs Hull City · Own box − 4 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)

Sat 5 Sep away vs Hull City · Box pressure + 10/13 shots from inside the box

Sat 24 Oct home vs Manchester City · Finishing − 2 goals from 0.64 expected (+1.36)

Sat 24 Oct home vs Manchester City · Goalkeeper + 6 saves

Sat 24 Oct home vs Manchester City · Shooting accuracy + 2/8 shots on target (25 %)

Sat 24 Oct home vs Manchester City · Discipline + 4 cards, 21 fouls

Sat 24 Oct home vs Manchester City · Duels − 50 % of duels won (64/127)

Sat 24 Oct home vs Manchester City · Possession and duels − possession 37 %, duels 50 %

Sat 24 Oct home vs Manchester City · Set pieces − 4 corners, 7 conceded

Sat 24 Oct home vs Manchester City · Own box + 12 shots against from inside the box (15 in total)

Sat 19 Sep away vs Tottenham · Finishing − 3 goals from 1.16 expected (+1.84)

Sat 19 Sep away vs Tottenham · Goalkeeper + 5 saves

Sat 19 Sep away vs Tottenham · Shooting accuracy − 6/15 shots on target (40 %)

Sat 19 Sep away vs Tottenham · Defensive line + 5 offsides won

Sat 19 Sep away vs Tottenham · Discipline + 2 cards, 13 fouls

Sat 19 Sep away vs Tottenham · Duels − 41 % of duels won (46/111)

Sat 19 Sep away vs Tottenham · Possession and duels − possession 36 %, duels 41 %

Sat 19 Sep away vs Tottenham · Own box + 12 shots against from inside the box (20 in total)

Sat 19 Sep away vs Tottenham · Box pressure + 9/15 shots from inside the box

Sat 17 Oct away vs Newcastle · Finishing + 1 goals from 1.63 expected (-0.63)

Sat 17 Oct away vs Newcastle · Goalkeeper − 1 saves

Sat 17 Oct away vs Newcastle · Shooting accuracy + 3/15 shots on target (20 %)

Sat 17 Oct away vs Newcastle · Defensive line + 5 offsides won

Sat 17 Oct away vs Newcastle · Discipline + 2 cards, 11 fouls

Sat 17 Oct away vs Newcastle · Duels − 50 % of duels won (56/113)

Sat 17 Oct away vs Newcastle · Possession and duels − possession 51 %, duels 50 %

Sat 17 Oct away vs Newcastle · Set pieces − 5 corners, 4 conceded

Sat 17 Oct away vs Newcastle · Own box + 11 shots against from inside the box (16 in total)

Sat 17 Oct away vs Newcastle · Box pressure + 11/15 shots from inside the box

Sat 12 Sep home vs Nottingham Forest · Threat by half − own threat 0.65 → 0.17 xG, opponents 0.39 → 1.89

Sat 12 Sep home vs Nottingham Forest · Goalkeeper + 5 saves

Sat 12 Sep home vs Nottingham Forest · Shooting accuracy − 5/7 shots on target (71 %)

Sat 12 Sep home vs Nottingham Forest · Defensive line + 4 offsides won

Sat 12 Sep home vs Nottingham Forest · Discipline + 2 cards, 11 fouls

Sat 12 Sep home vs Nottingham Forest · Duels − 48 % of duels won (47/97)

Sat 12 Sep home vs Nottingham Forest · Possession and duels + possession 54 %, duels 48 %

Sat 12 Sep home vs Nottingham Forest · Set pieces − 6 corners, 1 conceded

Sat 12 Sep home vs Nottingham Forest · Own box + 14 shots against from inside the box (22 in total)

Sat 10 Oct home vs Brentford · Threat by half − own threat 1.28 → 0.56 xG, opponents 0.56 → 0.75

Sat 10 Oct home vs Brentford · Goalkeeper − 3 saves

Sat 10 Oct home vs Brentford · Shooting accuracy − 7/20 shots on target (35 %)

Sat 10 Oct home vs Brentford · Discipline + 2 cards, 7 fouls

Sat 10 Oct home vs Brentford · Duels + 54 % of duels won (60/111)

Sat 10 Oct home vs Brentford · Possession and duels − possession 52 %, duels 54 %

Sat 10 Oct home vs Brentford · Own box + 12 shots against from inside the box (14 in total)

Sat 10 Oct home vs Brentford · Box pressure + 15/20 shots from inside the box

A finding is one measured item from one match. A + mark supports the pattern, a − challenges it.

Suljetut hypoteesit (3)

What is closed is not deleted: it shows what we thought and why the view changed.

Hypothesis 1 · Possession and duels State · closed · 8 matches

Possession may not be matched by duel wins.

Supports

+ Sat 5.9. away vs Hull City: possession 74 %, duels 45 %

+ Sat 12.9. home vs Nottingham Forest: possession 54 %, duels 48 %

Challenges

− Sun 23.8. away vs Brighton: possession 27 %, duels 48 %

− Mon 31.8. home vs Arsenal: possession 39 %, duels 43 %

− Sat 24.10. home vs Manchester City: possession 37 %, duels 50 %

− Sat 19.9. away vs Tottenham: possession 36 %, duels 41 %

− Sat 17.10. away vs Newcastle: possession 51 %, duels 50 %

− Sat 10.10. home vs Brentford: possession 52 %, duels 54 %

Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?

Hypothesis 2 · Duels State · closed · 8 matches

Duels appear to carry this team's game.

Supports

+ Sat 10.10. home vs Brentford: 54 % of duels won (60/111)

Challenges

− Sun 23.8. away vs Brighton: 48 % of duels won (46/96)

− Mon 31.8. home vs Arsenal: 43 % of duels won (39/90)

− Sat 5.9. away vs Hull City: 45 % of duels won (38/84)

− Sat 24.10. home vs Manchester City: 50 % of duels won (64/127)

− Sat 19.9. away vs Tottenham: 41 % of duels won (46/111)

− Sat 17.10. away vs Newcastle: 50 % of duels won (56/113)

− Sat 12.9. home vs Nottingham Forest: 48 % of duels won (47/97)

Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?

Hypothesis 3 · Set pieces State · closed · 3 matches

Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.

Supports

No longer backed by the evidence.

Challenges

− Sat 24.10. home vs Manchester City: 4 corners, 7 conceded

− Sat 17.10. away vs Newcastle: 5 corners, 4 conceded

− Sat 12.9. home vs Nottingham Forest: 6 corners, 1 conceded

Last season 5.2 corners in the match, 4.9 against ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?

● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · match statistics

Measured numbers for the season

Style of play · season 2026-27

Line: high line: opponents caught offside 33 times (league 1./20) ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · offsides and shot locations

Progression: progression mid-table: 34.9 passes per shot, possession 46 % ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · passes and shots

Set pieces: in attack 26 corners (league 18./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 37 corners against (10./20), no headed goals conceded ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · corners and goal types

Second half: output weighted to the second half (4+5 goals); own end leaks late (concessions 1+7); own threat rose in the second half in 2 of 7 matches (median −0.23 xG, league +0.15); opponents' threat rose in the second half in 7 of 7 matches (median +0.41 xG, league +0.15); first substitution on average at minute 55 (covering 7/8 matches, 1 was settled by half-time) ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · goals and substitutions by minute

When leading: withstood the pressure: led at half-time 3 times and won, although the opponent's threat grew (opponent xG in matches where they led 1.44 → 3.00) ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · threat by half

Game state: Leading 25 % of playing time, level 55 %, trailing 20 %. ● minutes from goal events · ○ interpretation

Threat by half, average of 8 matches (gold = Aston Villa): own threat rose in the second half in 2 of 7 matches, median −0.23 xG (league +0.15). Two-half split, not a minute curve.

Tracking · season 2026-27

Opponents get into the box: 85 shots against from inside the box (3rd most of 20), 126 shots in total (67 % from the box) ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · match statistics
We track whether the number of shots conceded in the box narrows: leaking the box predicts goals conceded over a longer sample.

One round is not a trend, so each line says what we track next.

Data limit: we see how many shots there are and where they come from (inside or outside the box), plus the game state. We do not see the route the attack took (through the middle or down the flanks) or where possession was lost.

Last season's baseline

The baseline is the 2025-26 squad. Since then these players left: Morgan Rogers, Konsa, Martinez, Youri Tielemans. ● season 2025-26 minutes · current squad

Analyst's take

Aston Villa sijoittui 4:nneksi, vaikka ansiotaso vastasi 13. sijaa.

The same direction showed in defence: the team conceded 49 goals while chance quality projected 53.4.

Analytical synthesis Comebacks from losing positions (13 points rescued) are not luck: 62 % of goals come in the second half. This team plays its matches on a long arc; the half-time score says less about this team than about others. ○ interpretation · every number computed from season 2025-26 ●

Insights

Lucas Digne produced exceptionally for a defender: 7 goal involvements.

Morgan Rogers clearly beat expectation: 18 goal involvements against 11.2 xGI.

● season 2025-26 · goal involvements from full-season round data

● Aston Villa collected 4. place on points their performances do not cover: 13. on merit.

● Direct play is a relief for this team: when opponents skipped the build-up, concessions dropped by −0.5 per match.

● One stretch cost the season: 3 straight defeats in February–March.

Attack: who produced the goals and assists

	Finishing goals vs xG	Chance creation assists vs xA
Defenders	−2.0	+3.0
Midfield	+8.3	+0.8
Forwards	+1.0	−0.4

Defence, team level

Chance prevention
little danger

+0.9

Shot-stopping
conceded vs chances

+2.4

Data profile · style, character, output ●

Style of play High defensive line: opponents offside 2.9 times/match (league 2.). Watch what Aston Villa do when the game will not open: they go long less often than their opponents, and when they did, expected goals against was 0.47 lower. 62% of the goals came in the second half; the attack sharpens late. Rotation 2.9 line-up changes/round. ● measured · season 2025-26 · directness relative to opponent · half-time split from result data · rotation from round data · style from match stats (possession, passes, offsides)

Character Recovered 13 points from losing positions (5 matches) and dropped 2 points from leads (1 matches). One-goal matches 13–5. Home and away in balance: 38 / 27 points. ● season 2025-26 · HT–FT turnarounds from results data

Output Of shots on target, 33 % went in; of those faced, 29 %. Corners 5.2 vs 4.9 per match · 58 yellows + 1 reds over the season. ● season 2025-26 · shots on target, corners and cards from results data

Player readings · 1

● Ollie Watkins produced 87 % of the xGI of players classed as forwards in Aston Villa's register (2 comparable players).

Signals style-of-play mechanism contract ● · established profile season 2026-27 ●

What we don't know yet

no active hypothesis

TEAM IDENTITY

Home ground

Villa Park

Villa Park has hosted 55 FA Cup semi-finals, more than any other ground.

source: Wikipedia, Villa Park

TEAM MEMORY

27.05 · 2019

Nousu Valioliigaan

Aston Villa reach the Premier League after winning the Championship play-off final at Wembley 2-1 against Derby County.

source: Aston Villa FC (avfc.co.uk), Play-Off Final match report 27.5.2019