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MY CLUB

Brighton

THE SQUAD

GKVerbruggen

DEFF.Kadıoğlu

DEFVuskovic

DEFDunk

DEFBoscagli

MIDGroß

MIDAndrés

MIDGomez

MIDAyari

DEFCuyper

FWDKostoulas

● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 7

fitness concernformno measured deviation

Yohanna12 min · 0/7 starts · injured (0 %)

Bench

DEFCostinhaMIDOsmanFWDDavidMIDYohannaDEFHadjam

NEXT CHECK

LAST MATCH

Brighton – Crystal Palace 5–0 (half-time 3–0) · goals: Ayari, Kostoulas, Gomez, Hinshelwood ● result: round data

Sun 18 Oct

PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT

No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.

The match was decided in minute 10, when Brighton led by three goals (3–0). Later substitutions and numbers reflect the game state, not how the team plays. ● goal events

Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Brighton shoot this season 18.0 times per match (2nd in the league, last season 13.0 and 7th in the league), Crystal Palace: 18.0 shots conceded (league 20.). The match's shot count tells which number held. ● season 2026-27 · 6 matches before the round · last season for comparison
What happened: the defence won: 17 shots (baseline 18.0, opponent concedes 18.0). ● round data
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Brighton score this season from 16.7 percent of their shots (3rd in the league, last season 10.5 and 15th in the league), Crystal Palace: save percentage on shots on target 64.7 (league 11.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created. ●
What happened: the finishing held: 5 goals from 2.02 expected (+2.98), 29 % of shots scored. ●
Third: Rhythm of the two halves. Last season Brighton scored 62 percent of their goals in the second half, Crystal Palace 51 percent. If the gap holds, the threat grows late towards Brighton. ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches/team
What happened: the second half was sharper: threat 0.40 → 1.62 xG, shots 8 → 9. ●
Fourth: Box pressure delivers. 69 shots from inside the box (league 3./20) and 18 goals, 108 shots in total (2./20) ● season 2026-27 · from 6 match(es) · match statistics
What happened: observation repeated, 8 shots from the box, 5 goals, 5 shots against. ●
One more: The cost of indiscipline grows. 14 cards (league 3./20) and 77 fouls (5./20) ●
What happened: observation repeated, 2 cards, 13 fouls. ●
Finally: Player pick. Pascal Groß is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 31.3 points on average in 6 matches, top three 3 times. ● season 2026-27 · match ratings before the round
What happened: Player pick did not hold: Pascal Groß ranked 11/16 in his team's match ratings and produced 0+1. Match score 17, season average before the match 31.3. ●
And: Style of play. Keeps the ball: possession 54 % and 476 passes/match (league 5.). ● season 2025-26 · from match statistics
What happened: Style claim held: possession 57 % (league level 50 %). ●

From this match: 5/7 held

Threat by half (expected goals, gold = Brighton): shots 8/3 and 9/2 Two-half split, not a minute-by-minute curve.

Events by minute: Brighton on top, Crystal Palace below, 5 goals and 3 cards. Vertical lines at minutes 45 and 90. ● match events

Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.

This match's verdict on the Matches list →

NEXT MATCH

Liverpool – Brighton

Sun 25.10. · 16:00 · ○ fixture info, as of 25.10.

This match's preview on the Matches list →

MATCH WATCHLIST

Each item is a claim, and the verdict appears beneath it after the match.

Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Brighton shoot this season 17.9 times per match (2nd in the league, last season 13.0 and 7th in the league), Liverpool: 11.9 shots conceded (league 7.). The match's shot count tells which number held. ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · last season for comparison
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Brighton score this season from 18.4 percent of their shots (2nd in the league, last season 10.5 and 15th in the league), Liverpool: save percentage on shots on target 66.7 (league 10.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created. ●
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.
Third: Set pieces. Brighton win this season 5.7 corners per match (5th in the league, last season 4.9 and 12th in the league), Liverpool: 4.4 corners conceded (league 12.). The expectation is at least 4 corners. ●
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.
Fourth: Box pressure delivers. 77 shots from inside the box (league 3./20) and 23 goals, 125 shots in total (2./20) ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · match statistics
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.
One more: The lead held to the end. The lead was kept more often than lost and the opponents' threat fell in the second half (xG in the 2nd half below the 1st) ●
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.
Finally: Player pick. Pascal Groß is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 29.3 points on average in 7 matches, top three 3 times. ● season 2026-27 · match ratings before the round
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.
And: Style of play. Keeps the ball: possession 60 % and 506 passes/match (league 4.). ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · match statistics
The verdict will be recorded here after the match.

Availability before the match

Doubtful in the registry: Mats Wieffer 25 %, Pascal Struijk 75 %. ▷

Baseline per match from last season: upper bar Brighton, lower Liverpool, vertical line the league level. ● measured 2025-26

Preview of both teams on the Matches list →

HOW TO WATCH THIS MATCH

Style of play: Keeps the ball: possession 54 % and 476 passes/match (league 5.). 62% of the goals came in the second half; the attack sharpens late. ● season 2025-26 · half-time split from result data · style from match stats (possession, passes, offsides)

Brighton: Yasin Ayari: xG-ristiriita ● season 2025-26

Vastustaja · Liverpool: Ryan Gravenberch: xG-ristiriita ● season 2025-26

Opponent's style of play: Pitää palloa: hallinta 59 % ja 531 syöttöä/ottelu (liigan 2.). Liverpool have conceded 68 % of their goals in the second half; the pressure lasts to the end. ● season 2025-26 · half-by-half split from results data

Player pick: Gomez carried the core, but fitness left question marks (3 early substitutions · 6 DNP, patchy season). ● season 2025-26

THE OPPONENT IN BRIEF

Liverpool+5.9 Ryan Gravenberch: xG-ristiriita GI vs xGI, Ryan Gravenberchsquad-riski 1.42 core-squad workload, ● season 2025-26Alisson Becker (fitness concern) · Ryan Gravenberch (on fire)● season 2025-26

MANAGER'S CORNER · FANTASY

Player card

Charalampos Kostoulas

Brighton · forward

Downward trend expected

Last 5 matches: 6 goals and assists from only 1.6 xGI ●

In 576 similar past cases, the scoring pace slowed for 86 % within the next 3 matches (when xGI backed the pace, 77 %) ●

Goals and assists Last 4 matches: goals 3 · assists 3 · xGI 1.1 ●

xGI per round ●

Match rating 1–10 ▷ 7.9

Next matches ●LIVawayMCIaway

Compared with 22 forwards, at least 270 min ●

xG / 90 min0.34

xA / 90 min0.02

Match rating (avg) ▷7.0

Playing time77 %

Season 2026-27, rounds 1–7482 min · 6/7 starts · 3 goals, 4 assists · xGI 1.9 ● measured

▷ in 10.4 % of teams · price 5.8

Player card

Pascal Groß

Brighton · midfielder

Downward trend expected

Last 5 matches: 7 goals and assists from only 2.9 xGI ●

Goals and assists Last 4 matches: goals 2 · assists 5 · xGI 2.1 ●

xGI per round ●

Next matches ●LIVaway

Season 2026-27, rounds 1–7610 min · 7/7 starts · 3 goals, 6 assists · xGI 3.3 ● measured

▷ in 46.6 % of teams · price 6.2

Player card

Bart Verbruggen

Brighton · goalkeeper

In hot form

Match ratings in the last 4 matches: 9.9 · 7.9 · 7.5 · 7.2 (avg 8.1) ▷

Clean sheets Last 4 matches: clean sheets 4 · conceded 0 · saves 12 ●

xGI per round ●

Next matches ●LIVaway

Season 2026-27, rounds 1–7630 min · 7/7 starts · 0 goals, 0 assists · xGI 0.2 ● measured

▷ in 22.6 % of teams · price 4.6

Player card

Vuskovic

Brighton · defender

In hot form

Match ratings in the last 4 matches: 7.5 · 7.7 · 7.7 · 7.9 (avg 7.7) ▷

Top defensive actions Last 4 matches: defensive actions 48 (12.4 / 90 min) · tackles 5 · interceptions, blocks and clearances 43 ●

xGI per round ●

Next matches ●LIVaway

Season 2026-27, rounds 1–7617 min · 7/7 starts · 1 goals, 1 assists · xGI 1.3 ● measured

▷ in 6.4 % of teams · price 5.1

Every player in the league, form and risks → All players

TEAM BASELINE

Brighton

now 3rd in the table · 16 pts ●

last season 8th · 6th on merit

→

Playing identity now Brighton keep the ball and build through possession; progress quickly towards goal. Last season: keep the ball and build through possession. ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches · match stats: possession, passes, shots, offsides

What has changed?

Squad after the summer

Left after the 2025-26 season: Van Hecke (3210 min, goals+assists 3+3, 6 % of the team's goals, now Tottenham); Danny Welbeck (2249 min, goals+assists 13+1, 25 % of the team's goals, now Chelsea); Carlos Baleba (1646 min, goals+assists 0+0, now Man Utd); Joël Veltman (1047 min, goals+assists 1+0, 2 % of the team's goals, no longer in a league squad).

New starters: Vuskovic (7 starts, from outside the league); Andrés (3 starts, from outside the league); Pascal Struijk (2 starts, came from Leeds).

● season 2025-26 minutes, goals and assists · current squad and starts

The team reaches the box: 13/15 shots from inside the box (Sun 30.8. away vs Chelsea).

Signal hypothesis · strengthening · 6 matches

The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.

+ Sun 30.8. away vs Chelsea: 13/15 shots from inside the box

Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?

Evidence in detail

Holds up across game states: in close periods 4.8 shots from inside the box per 45 min, league 5/20 (6 periods). ● close period = margin of at most 1 goal for at least 75 % of the period's minutes · match stats by half

Last season 13.0 shots in the match (no box split from last season, so the comparison is shot count) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Other tracked hypotheses (4)

Hypothesis 2 · Discipline State · strengthening · 6 matches

The cost of indiscipline may rise.

Supports

+ Sun 30.8. away vs Chelsea: 3 cards, 12 fouls

+ Sun 23.8. home vs Aston Villa: 2 cards, 12 fouls

+ Sun 18.10. home vs Crystal Palace: 2 cards, 13 fouls

+ Sat 5.9. home vs Leeds: 3 cards, 13 fouls

+ Sat 19.9. home vs Arsenal: 4 cards, 13 fouls

+ Sat 10.10. away vs Sunderland: 2 cards, 12 fouls

Challenges

No counter-evidence yet.

Last season 2.3 cards and 11.9 fouls in the match ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?

Hypothesis 3 · Threat by half State · strengthening · 5 matches

The threat appears weighted towards the second half.

Supports

+ Sun 18.10. home vs Crystal Palace: own threat 0.40 → 1.62 xG, opponents 0.13 → 0.64

+ Sun 13.9. away vs Coventry: own threat 0.97 → 1.83 xG, opponents 0.97 → 0.37

+ Sat 19.9. home vs Arsenal: own threat 0.36 → 0.95 xG, opponents 0.39 → 1.24

+ Sat 10.10. away vs Sunderland: own threat 0.47 → 0.67 xG, opponents 0.43 → 0.25

Challenges

− Sun 30.8. away vs Chelsea: own threat 1.06 → 0.50 xG, opponents 1.93 → 1.04

Last season 62 % of goals came in the second half (32 / 52) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?

Hypothesis 4 · Own box State · strengthening · 7 matches

Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.

Supports

+ Sun 30.8. away vs Chelsea: 15 shots against from inside the box (17 in total)

+ Sun 13.9. away vs Coventry: 12 shots against from inside the box (14 in total)

+ Sat 5.9. home vs Leeds: 10 shots against from inside the box (10 in total)

+ Sat 19.9. home vs Arsenal: 10 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)

Challenges

− Sun 23.8. home vs Aston Villa: 2 shots against from inside the box (6 in total)

− Sun 18.10. home vs Crystal Palace: 4 shots against from inside the box (5 in total)

− Sat 10.10. away vs Sunderland: 4 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)

Holds up across game states: in close periods 74 % of opponents' shots from inside the box, league 3/20 (6 periods). ● close period = margin of at most 1 goal for at least 75 % of the period's minutes · match stats by half

Last season 11.7 shots against in the match (no box split) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?

Hypothesis 5 · Defensive line Status · new · 1 match

The defence appears to hold a high line.

Supports

+ Sat 10.10. away vs Sunderland: 5 offsides won

Challenges

No counter-evidence yet.

Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?

Show 66 findings

Sun 30 Aug away vs Chelsea · Finishing − 3 goals from 1.56 expected (+1.44)

Sun 30 Aug away vs Chelsea · Threat by half − own threat 1.06 → 0.50 xG, opponents 1.93 → 1.04

Sun 30 Aug away vs Chelsea · Goalkeeper − 1 saves

Sun 30 Aug away vs Chelsea · Shooting accuracy − 6/15 shots on target (40 %)

Sun 30 Aug away vs Chelsea · Discipline + 3 cards, 12 fouls

Sun 30 Aug away vs Chelsea · Duels − 46 % of duels won (36/79)

Sun 30 Aug away vs Chelsea · Possession and duels + possession 74 %, duels 46 %

Sun 30 Aug away vs Chelsea · Set pieces − 7 corners, 4 conceded

Sun 30 Aug away vs Chelsea · Own box + 15 shots against from inside the box (17 in total)

Sun 30 Aug away vs Chelsea · Box pressure + 13/15 shots from inside the box

Sun 23 Aug home vs Aston Villa · Goalkeeper − 0 saves

Sun 23 Aug home vs Aston Villa · Shooting accuracy + 6/21 shots on target (29 %)

Sun 23 Aug home vs Aston Villa · Discipline + 2 cards, 12 fouls

Sun 23 Aug home vs Aston Villa · Duels + 52 % of duels won (50/96)

Sun 23 Aug home vs Aston Villa · Possession and duels − possession 73 %, duels 52 %

Sun 23 Aug home vs Aston Villa · Set pieces − 5 corners, 2 conceded

Sun 23 Aug home vs Aston Villa · Own box − 2 shots against from inside the box (6 in total)

Sun 23 Aug home vs Aston Villa · Box pressure + 15/21 shots from inside the box

Sun 18 Oct home vs Crystal Palace · Finishing − 5 goals from 2.02 expected (+2.98)

Sun 18 Oct home vs Crystal Palace · Threat by half + own threat 0.40 → 1.62 xG, opponents 0.13 → 0.64

Sun 18 Oct home vs Crystal Palace · Goalkeeper − 1 saves

Sun 18 Oct home vs Crystal Palace · Shooting accuracy − 9/17 shots on target (53 %)

Sun 18 Oct home vs Crystal Palace · Discipline + 2 cards, 13 fouls

Sun 18 Oct home vs Crystal Palace · Duels − 51 % of duels won (43/85)

Sun 18 Oct home vs Crystal Palace · Possession and duels − possession 57 %, duels 51 %

Sun 18 Oct home vs Crystal Palace · Set pieces − 8 corners, 5 conceded

Sun 18 Oct home vs Crystal Palace · Own box − 4 shots against from inside the box (5 in total)

Sun 18 Oct home vs Crystal Palace · Box pressure + 8/17 shots from inside the box

Sun 13 Sep away vs Coventry · Finishing − 5 goals from 2.81 expected (+2.19)

Sun 13 Sep away vs Coventry · Threat by half + own threat 0.97 → 1.83 xG, opponents 0.97 → 0.37

Sun 13 Sep away vs Coventry · Goalkeeper + 6 saves

Sun 13 Sep away vs Coventry · Shooting accuracy − 7/22 shots on target (32 %)

Sun 13 Sep away vs Coventry · Duels − 43 % of duels won (41/96)

Sun 13 Sep away vs Coventry · Possession and duels + possession 69 %, duels 43 %

Sun 13 Sep away vs Coventry · Set pieces − 3 corners, 5 conceded

Sun 13 Sep away vs Coventry · Own box + 12 shots against from inside the box (14 in total)

Sun 13 Sep away vs Coventry · Box pressure + 14/22 shots from inside the box

Sat 5 Sep home vs Leeds · Finishing + 1 goals from 2.19 expected (-1.19)

Sat 5 Sep home vs Leeds · Goalkeeper − 3 saves

Sat 5 Sep home vs Leeds · Shooting accuracy + 5/20 shots on target (25 %)

Sat 5 Sep home vs Leeds · Discipline + 3 cards, 13 fouls

Sat 5 Sep home vs Leeds · Duels − 48 % of duels won (54/112)

Sat 5 Sep home vs Leeds · Possession and duels + possession 67 %, duels 48 %

Sat 5 Sep home vs Leeds · Set pieces − 7 corners, 6 conceded

Sat 5 Sep home vs Leeds · Own box + 10 shots against from inside the box (10 in total)

Sat 5 Sep home vs Leeds · Box pressure + 11/20 shots from inside the box

Sat 19 Sep home vs Arsenal · Finishing − 3 goals from 1.31 expected (+1.69)

Sat 19 Sep home vs Arsenal · Threat by half + own threat 0.36 → 0.95 xG, opponents 0.39 → 1.24

Sat 19 Sep home vs Arsenal · Goalkeeper − 2 saves

Sat 19 Sep home vs Arsenal · Shooting accuracy + 5/17 shots on target (29 %)

Sat 19 Sep home vs Arsenal · Discipline + 4 cards, 13 fouls

Sat 19 Sep home vs Arsenal · Duels − 50 % of duels won (51/102)

Sat 19 Sep home vs Arsenal · Possession and duels − possession 40 %, duels 50 %

Sat 19 Sep home vs Arsenal · Set pieces − 5 corners, 6 conceded

Sat 19 Sep home vs Arsenal · Own box + 10 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)

Sat 19 Sep home vs Arsenal · Box pressure + 10/17 shots from inside the box

Sat 10 Oct away vs Sunderland · Finishing − 2 goals from 1.14 expected (+0.86)

Sat 10 Oct away vs Sunderland · Threat by half + own threat 0.47 → 0.67 xG, opponents 0.43 → 0.25

Sat 10 Oct away vs Sunderland · Goalkeeper − 3 saves

Sat 10 Oct away vs Sunderland · Shooting accuracy − 4/13 shots on target (31 %)

Sat 10 Oct away vs Sunderland · Defensive line + 5 offsides won

Sat 10 Oct away vs Sunderland · Discipline + 2 cards, 12 fouls

Sat 10 Oct away vs Sunderland · Duels − 50 % of duels won (52/104)

Sat 10 Oct away vs Sunderland · Possession and duels − possession 38 %, duels 50 %

Sat 10 Oct away vs Sunderland · Set pieces − 5 corners, 7 conceded

Sat 10 Oct away vs Sunderland · Own box − 4 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)

A finding is one measured item from one match. A + mark supports the pattern, a − challenges it.

Suljetut hypoteesit (6)

What is closed is not deleted: it shows what we thought and why the view changed.

Hypothesis 1 · Possession and duels State · closed · 7 matches

Possession may not be matched by duel wins.

Supports

+ Sun 30.8. away vs Chelsea: possession 74 %, duels 46 %

+ Sun 13.9. away vs Coventry: possession 69 %, duels 43 %

+ Sat 5.9. home vs Leeds: possession 67 %, duels 48 %

Challenges

− Sun 23.8. home vs Aston Villa: possession 73 %, duels 52 %

− Sun 18.10. home vs Crystal Palace: possession 57 %, duels 51 %

− Sat 19.9. home vs Arsenal: possession 40 %, duels 50 %

− Sat 10.10. away vs Sunderland: possession 38 %, duels 50 %

Weakens in close periods: 54 % possession, league 6/20 (6 periods). Part of the number comes from the game state. ● close period = margin of at most 1 goal for at least 75 % of the period's minutes · match stats by half

Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?

Hypothesis 2 · Shooting accuracy State · closed · 7 matches

Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.

Supports

+ Sun 23.8. home vs Aston Villa: 6/21 shots on target (29 %)

+ Sat 5.9. home vs Leeds: 5/20 shots on target (25 %)

+ Sat 19.9. home vs Arsenal: 5/17 shots on target (29 %)

Challenges

− Sun 30.8. away vs Chelsea: 6/15 shots on target (40 %)

− Sun 18.10. home vs Crystal Palace: 9/17 shots on target (53 %)

− Sun 13.9. away vs Coventry: 7/22 shots on target (32 %)

− Sat 10.10. away vs Sunderland: 4/13 shots on target (31 %)

Last season 36 % of shots on target (176 / 495) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?

Hypothesis 3 · Finishing State · closed · 6 matches

Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.

Supports

+ Sat 5.9. home vs Leeds: 1 goals from 2.19 expected (-1.19)

Challenges

− Sun 30.8. away vs Chelsea: 3 goals from 1.56 expected (+1.44)

− Sun 18.10. home vs Crystal Palace: 5 goals from 2.02 expected (+2.98)

− Sun 13.9. away vs Coventry: 5 goals from 2.81 expected (+2.19)

− Sat 19.9. home vs Arsenal: 3 goals from 1.31 expected (+1.69)

− Sat 10.10. away vs Sunderland: 2 goals from 1.14 expected (+0.86)

Last season 1.4 goals and 13.0 shots in the match, 11 % of shots scored ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?

Hypothesis 4 · Goalkeeper State · closed · 7 matches

The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.

Supports

+ Sun 13.9. away vs Coventry: 6 saves

Challenges

− Sun 30.8. away vs Chelsea: 1 saves

− Sun 23.8. home vs Aston Villa: 0 saves

− Sun 18.10. home vs Crystal Palace: 1 saves

− Sat 5.9. home vs Leeds: 3 saves

− Sat 19.9. home vs Arsenal: 2 saves

− Sat 10.10. away vs Sunderland: 3 saves

Last season 69 % of shots on target kept out (46 conceded / 148) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?

Hypothesis 5 · Duels State · closed · 7 matches

Duels appear to carry this team's game.

Supports

+ Sun 23.8. home vs Aston Villa: 52 % of duels won (50/96)

Challenges

− Sun 30.8. away vs Chelsea: 46 % of duels won (36/79)

− Sun 18.10. home vs Crystal Palace: 51 % of duels won (43/85)

− Sun 13.9. away vs Coventry: 43 % of duels won (41/96)

− Sat 5.9. home vs Leeds: 48 % of duels won (54/112)

− Sat 19.9. home vs Arsenal: 50 % of duels won (51/102)

− Sat 10.10. away vs Sunderland: 50 % of duels won (52/104)

Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?

Hypothesis 6 · Set pieces State · closed · 7 matches

Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.

Supports

No longer backed by the evidence.

Challenges

− Sun 30.8. away vs Chelsea: 7 corners, 4 conceded

− Sun 23.8. home vs Aston Villa: 5 corners, 2 conceded

− Sun 18.10. home vs Crystal Palace: 8 corners, 5 conceded

− Sun 13.9. away vs Coventry: 3 corners, 5 conceded

− Sat 5.9. home vs Leeds: 7 corners, 6 conceded

− Sat 19.9. home vs Arsenal: 5 corners, 6 conceded

− Sat 10.10. away vs Sunderland: 5 corners, 7 conceded

Weakens in close periods: 2.8 corners per 45 min, league 6/20 (6 periods). Part of the number comes from the game state. ● close period = margin of at most 1 goal for at least 75 % of the period's minutes · match stats by half

Last season 4.9 corners in the match, 4.8 against ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?

● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · match statistics

Measured numbers for the season

Style of play · season 2026-27

Line: line mid-table: 15 offsides drawn; box open: 76 % of shots conceded came from inside the box ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · offsides and shot locations

Progression: progression mid-table: 28.3 passes per shot, possession 60 % ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · passes and shots

Set pieces: in attack 40 corners (league 6./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 35 corners against (7./20), no headed goals conceded ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · corners and goal types

Second half: output weighted to the second half (4+10 goals); own end tightens late (concessions 4+1); own threat rose in the second half in 4 of 5 matches (median +0.59 xG, league +0.15); opponents' threat rose in the second half in 1 of 5 matches (median −0.60 xG, league +0.15); first substitution on average at minute 70 (covering 5/7 matches, 2 was settled by half-time) ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · goals and substitutions by minute

When leading: withstood the pressure: led at half-time 4 times and won, although the opponent's threat grew (opponent xG in matches where they led 1.67 → 2.38) ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · threat by half

Game state: Leading 51 % of playing time, level 27 %, trailing 23 %. League rank 1 for time leading, so the season numbers lean towards play with a lead. ● minutes from goal events · ○ interpretation

Threat by half, average of 7 matches (gold = Brighton): own threat rose in the second half in 4 of 5 matches, median +0.59 xG (league +0.15). Two-half split, not a minute curve.

Tracking · season 2026-27

Box pressure delivers: 77 shots from inside the box (league 3./20) and 23 goals, 125 shots in total (2./20) ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · match statistics
We track whether box pressure holds when opponents defend deeper: volume without goals is recorded as inefficiency.

The lead held to the end: The lead was kept more often than lost and the opponents' threat fell in the second half (xG in the 2nd half below the 1st) ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · match statistics
We track whether the lead holds against stronger opponents and whether the opponents' threat keeps falling in the 2nd half.

One round is not a trend, so each line says what we track next.

Data limit: we see how many shots there are and where they come from (inside or outside the box), plus the game state. We do not see the route the attack took (through the middle or down the flanks) or where possession was lost.

Last season's baseline

The baseline is the 2025-26 squad. Since then these players left: Van Hecke, Danny Welbeck, Carlos Baleba, Joël Veltman. ● season 2025-26 minutes · current squad

Analyst's take

Brighton's league position and merit level landed close together

The team finished 8. The merit-level placing was 6. In Joulukuussa the team went 6 matches without a win. In attack the team scored 52 goals while chance quality projected 57.9.

Analytical synthesis Comebacks from losing positions (13 points rescued) are not luck: 62 % of goals come in the second half. This team plays its matches on a long arc; the half-time score says less about this team than about others. ○ interpretation · every number computed from season 2025-26 ●

● Brighton's season landed right where merit pointed: 8. and 6.

● Opponents went direct against Brighton, 2 percentage points below their usual level, but it did not pay: concessions stayed at −0.1.

● Wins went missing in December, 6 matches in a row, the longest stretch of the season.

Attack: who produced the goals and assists

	Finishing goals vs xG	Chance creation assists vs xA
Defenders	+0.1	−2.9
Midfield	−5.4	+4.5
Forwards	+1.5	−1.9

Defence, team level

Chance prevention
little danger

+5.6

Shot-stopping
conceded vs chances

+0.6

Data profile · style, character, output ●

Style of play Keeps the ball: possession 54 % and 476 passes/match (league 5.). Watch whether the structure holds: Brighton played the league's 4. most direct game, and in their most direct matches conceded no more; expected goals against was 0.14 lower. 62% of the goals came in the second half; the attack sharpens late. Rotation 2.3 line-up changes/round. ● measured · season 2025-26 · directness relative to opponent · half-time split from result data · rotation from round data · style from match stats (possession, passes, offsides)

Character Recovered 13 points from losing positions (7 matches) and dropped 5 points from leads (2 matches). One-goal matches 6–8. Home fortress: 33 points at home, 20 away. ● season 2025-26 · HT–FT turnarounds from results data

Output Of shots on target, 30 % went in; of those faced, 31 %. Corners 4.9 vs 4.8 per match · 86 yellows over the season. ● season 2025-26 · shots on target, corners and cards from results data

Player readings · 1

● Danny Welbeck produced 81 % of the xGI of players classed as forwards in Brighton's register (3 comparable players).

Signals style-of-play mechanism contract ● · established profile season 2026-27 ●

What we don't know yet

no active hypothesis

TEAM IDENTITY

Home ground

Amex Stadium

The Amex Stadium opened in Falmer on 20.7.2011 after the temporary Withdean.

source: Wikipedia, Falmer Stadium

TEAM MEMORY

17.04 · 2017

Nousu Valioliigaan

Brighton reach the Premier League for the first time. A 2-1 win over Wigan, with promotion sealed the same day by Huddersfield's draw.

source: Premier League (premierleague.com), Brighton become 48th Premier League club