
Last 5 matches: 4 goals and assists from only 0.9 xGI ●
In 576 similar past cases, the scoring pace slowed for 86 % within the next 3 matches (when xGI backed the pace, 77 %) ●
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THE SQUAD
● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 7
NEXT CHECK
LAST MATCH
Brighton – Crystal Palace 5–0 (puoliaika 3–0)
PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT
No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.
The match was decided in minute 10, when Crystal Palace trailed by three goals (0–3). Later substitutions and numbers reflect the game state, not how the team plays.
Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Crystal Palace shoot this season 11.0 times per match (19th in the league, last season 11.6 and 13th in the league), Brighton: 11.7 shots conceded (league 5.). The match's shot count tells which number held.
What happened: the defence won: 5 shots (baseline 11.0, opponent concedes 11.7).
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Crystal Palace score this season from 13.6 percent of their shots (5th in the league, last season 9.3 and 19th in the league), Brighton: save percentage on shots on target 77.3 (league 6.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created.
What happened: goalkeeping and finishing beat the team: 0 goals from 0.77 expected (-0.77), 0 % of shots scored.
Third: Set pieces. Crystal Palace win this season 2.8 corners per match (19th in the league, last season 4.2 and 17th in the league), Brighton: 5.0 corners conceded (league 6.). The expectation is at least 3 corners.
What happened: expectation met: 5 corners (expected 3), 0 goals.
Fourth: Opponents get into the box. 78 shots against from inside the box (1st most of 20), 108 shots in total (72 % from the box)
What happened: observation repeated, 8 shots against from inside the box.
One more: The lead held to the end. The lead was kept more often than lost and the opponents' threat fell in the second half (xG in the 2nd half below the 1st)
What happened: observation stayed open, ei johtoa puoliajalla tässä ottelussa.
Finally: Player pick. Daichi Kamada is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 22.8 points on average in 6 matches, top three 5 times.
What happened: Player pick held: Daichi Kamada was among his team's best in the match ratings (3/16). Match score 7, season average before the match 22.8.
From this match: 3/5 held
Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.
MANAGER'S CORNER · FANTASY

Last 5 matches: 4 goals and assists from only 0.9 xGI ●
In 576 similar past cases, the scoring pace slowed for 86 % within the next 3 matches (when xGI backed the pace, 77 %) ●
xGI per 90 min: 0.61 in the last 3 matches, 0.17 before ●
Substituted off in round 7 (61 min) ●
Substituted off in round 7 (45 min) ●
TEAM BASELINE
Left after the 2025-26 season: Maxence Lacroix (3085 min, maalit+syötöt 1+2, 2 % joukkueen maaleista, nyt Chelsea); Muñoz (2400 min, maalit+syötöt 4+4, 10 % joukkueen maaleista, nyt Nott'm Forest); Brennan Johnson (1710 min, maalit+syötöt 2+1, 5 % joukkueen maaleista, nyt Everton).
New starters: Anan Khalaili (6 starts, from outside the league); Quinten Timber (5 starts, from outside the league); Takehiro Tomiyasu (2 starts, from outside the league); Honest Ahanor (2 starts, from outside the league) and 2 more.
The box has been reached too easily: 9 shots against from inside the box (13 in total) (Sun 20.9. away vs Leeds).
Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.
+ Sun 20.9. away vs Leeds: 9 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?
Holds up across game states: in close periods 7.0 shots conceded from inside the box per 45 min, league 1/20 (9 periods).
Last season 11.7 shots against in the match (no box split)
Hypothesis 2 · Goalkeeper State · strengthening · 7 matches
The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.
Supports
+ Sun 18.10. away vs Brighton: 5 saves
+ Sun 11.10. home vs Nottingham Forest: 4 saves
+ Fri 28.8. home vs Manchester City: 4 saves
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Fulham: 5 saves
Challenges
− Sun 20.9. away vs Leeds: 2 saves
− Sat 22.8. away vs Everton: 3 saves
− Sat 12.9. home vs Ipswich: 3 saves
Last season 69 % of shots on target kept out (51 conceded / 162)
Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?
Hypothesis 3 · Box pressure State · strengthening · 3 matches
The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.
Supports
+ Sun 11.10. home vs Nottingham Forest: 11/13 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 22.8. away vs Everton: 8/11 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 12.9. home vs Ipswich: 9/11 shots from inside the box
Challenges
No counter-evidence yet.
Last season 11.6 shots in the match (no box split from last season, so the comparison is shot count)
Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?
Hypothesis 4 · Finishing State · mixed · 6 matches
Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.
Supports
+ Sun 20.9. away vs Leeds: 0 goals from 1.06 expected (-1.06)
+ Sun 18.10. away vs Brighton: 0 goals from 0.77 expected (-0.77)
+ Sat 22.8. away vs Everton: 0 goals from 2.04 expected (-2.04)
Challenges
− Sun 11.10. home vs Nottingham Forest: 3 goals from 2.42 expected (+0.58)
− Sat 5.9. away vs Fulham: 3 goals from 1.97 expected (+1.03)
− Sat 12.9. home vs Ipswich: 2 goals from 0.62 expected (+1.38)
Last season 1.1 goals and 11.6 shots in the match, 9 % of shots scored
Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?
Hypothesis 5 · Discipline State · mixed · 6 matches
The cost of indiscipline may rise.
Supports
+ Sun 20.9. away vs Leeds: 3 cards, 12 fouls
+ Sun 11.10. home vs Nottingham Forest: 2 cards, 11 fouls
+ Sat 12.9. home vs Ipswich: 2 cards, 6 fouls
Challenges
− Sun 18.10. away vs Brighton: 1 cards, 11 fouls
− Fri 28.8. home vs Manchester City: 1 cards, 8 fouls
− Sat 22.8. away vs Everton: 1 cards, 15 fouls
Last season 2.0 cards and 10.5 fouls in the match
Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?
Hypothesis 6 · The whole system at the bottom end State · new · 7 matches
It looks like one metric rises first.
Supports
+ vs : Possession 43 % (league 18./20), own output 1.35 xG and 1.96 xG given to opponents (3./20 most): 4 metrics at the bottom end at once
Challenges
No counter-evidence yet.
Holds up across game states: in close periods 1.05 xG against per 45 min, league 1/20 (9 periods).
Next test Does this hold in the coming rounds: a systemic concern only clears with several metrics moving; we track which climbs first, possession or their own output?
Hypothesis 7 · Threat by half State · declining · 3 matches
The threat appears weighted towards the second half.
Supports
+ Sun 20.9. away vs Leeds: own threat 0.18 → 0.88 xG, opponents 0.54 → 0.77
Challenges
− Fri 28.8. home vs Manchester City: own threat 0.30 → 0.27 xG, opponents 0.85 → 0.61
− Sat 22.8. away vs Everton: own threat 1.65 → 0.39 xG, opponents 0.31 → 0.85
Last season 51 % of goals came in the second half (21 / 41)
Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?
Hypothesis 8 · Set pieces State · declining · 3 matches
Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.
Supports
+ Sun 18.10. away vs Brighton: 5 corners, 8 conceded
Challenges
− Sun 11.10. home vs Nottingham Forest: 5 corners, 8 conceded
− Sat 12.9. home vs Ipswich: 6 corners, 3 conceded
Last season 4.2 corners in the match, 5.2 against
Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?
Hypothesis 9 · Defensive line Status · fading · 1 match
The defence appears to hold a high line.
Supports
No longer backed by the evidence.
Challenges
− Fri 28.8. home vs Manchester City: 0 offsides won
Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?
Sun 20 Sep away vs Leeds · Finishing + 0 goals from 1.06 expected (-1.06)
Sun 20 Sep away vs Leeds · Threat by half + own threat 0.18 → 0.88 xG, opponents 0.54 → 0.77
Sun 20 Sep away vs Leeds · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Sun 20 Sep away vs Leeds · Shooting accuracy − 4/12 shots on target (33 %)
Sun 20 Sep away vs Leeds · Discipline + 3 cards, 12 fouls
Sun 20 Sep away vs Leeds · Duels − 44 % of duels won (44/101)
Sun 20 Sep away vs Leeds · Possession and duels − possession 49 %, duels 44 %
Sun 20 Sep away vs Leeds · Own box + 9 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
Sun 18 Oct away vs Brighton · Finishing + 0 goals from 0.77 expected (-0.77)
Sun 18 Oct away vs Brighton · Goalkeeper + 5 saves
Sun 18 Oct away vs Brighton · Shooting accuracy + 1/5 shots on target (20 %)
Sun 18 Oct away vs Brighton · Discipline − 1 cards, 11 fouls
Sun 18 Oct away vs Brighton · Duels − 49 % of duels won (42/85)
Sun 18 Oct away vs Brighton · Possession and duels − possession 43 %, duels 49 %
Sun 18 Oct away vs Brighton · Set pieces + 5 corners, 8 conceded
Sun 18 Oct away vs Brighton · Own box + 8 shots against from inside the box (17 in total)
Sun 11 Oct home vs Nottingham Forest · Finishing − 3 goals from 2.42 expected (+0.58)
Sun 11 Oct home vs Nottingham Forest · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Sun 11 Oct home vs Nottingham Forest · Shooting accuracy − 7/13 shots on target (54 %)
Sun 11 Oct home vs Nottingham Forest · Discipline + 2 cards, 11 fouls
Sun 11 Oct home vs Nottingham Forest · Duels − 51 % of duels won (50/98)
Sun 11 Oct home vs Nottingham Forest · Possession and duels − possession 43 %, duels 51 %
Sun 11 Oct home vs Nottingham Forest · Set pieces − 5 corners, 8 conceded
Sun 11 Oct home vs Nottingham Forest · Own box + 16 shots against from inside the box (24 in total)
Sun 11 Oct home vs Nottingham Forest · Box pressure + 11/13 shots from inside the box
Fri 28 Aug home vs Manchester City · Threat by half − own threat 0.30 → 0.27 xG, opponents 0.85 → 0.61
Fri 28 Aug home vs Manchester City · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Fri 28 Aug home vs Manchester City · Shooting accuracy + 1/9 shots on target (11 %)
Fri 28 Aug home vs Manchester City · Defensive line − 0 offsides won
Fri 28 Aug home vs Manchester City · Discipline − 1 cards, 8 fouls
Fri 28 Aug home vs Manchester City · Duels − 51 % of duels won (55/107)
Fri 28 Aug home vs Manchester City · Possession and duels − possession 28 %, duels 51 %
Fri 28 Aug home vs Manchester City · Own box + 12 shots against from inside the box (18 in total)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Fulham · Finishing − 3 goals from 1.97 expected (+1.03)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Fulham · Goalkeeper + 5 saves
Sat 5 Sep away vs Fulham · Shooting accuracy − 5/10 shots on target (50 %)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Fulham · Duels + 55 % of duels won (44/80)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Fulham · Possession and duels − possession 36 %, duels 55 %
Sat 5 Sep away vs Fulham · Own box + 22 shots against from inside the box (25 in total)
Sat 22 Aug away vs Everton · Finishing + 0 goals from 2.04 expected (-2.04)
Sat 22 Aug away vs Everton · Threat by half − own threat 1.65 → 0.39 xG, opponents 0.31 → 0.85
Sat 22 Aug away vs Everton · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sat 22 Aug away vs Everton · Shooting accuracy − 4/11 shots on target (36 %)
Sat 22 Aug away vs Everton · Discipline − 1 cards, 15 fouls
Sat 22 Aug away vs Everton · Duels − 46 % of duels won (46/99)
Sat 22 Aug away vs Everton · Possession and duels + possession 58 %, duels 46 %
Sat 22 Aug away vs Everton · Own box + 11 shots against from inside the box (16 in total)
Sat 22 Aug away vs Everton · Box pressure + 8/11 shots from inside the box
Sat 12 Sep home vs Ipswich · Finishing − 2 goals from 0.62 expected (+1.38)
Sat 12 Sep home vs Ipswich · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sat 12 Sep home vs Ipswich · Shooting accuracy − 4/11 shots on target (36 %)
Sat 12 Sep home vs Ipswich · Discipline + 2 cards, 6 fouls
Sat 12 Sep home vs Ipswich · Duels + 56 % of duels won (50/89)
Sat 12 Sep home vs Ipswich · Possession and duels − possession 47 %, duels 56 %
Sat 12 Sep home vs Ipswich · Set pieces − 6 corners, 3 conceded
Sat 12 Sep home vs Ipswich · Own box + 8 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
Sat 12 Sep home vs Ipswich · Box pressure + 9/11 shots from inside the box
Hypothesis 1 · Duels State · closed · 7 matches
Duels appear to carry this team's game.
Supports
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Fulham: 55 % of duels won (44/80)
+ Sat 12.9. home vs Ipswich: 56 % of duels won (50/89)
Challenges
− Sun 20.9. away vs Leeds: 44 % of duels won (44/101)
− Sun 18.10. away vs Brighton: 49 % of duels won (42/85)
− Sun 11.10. home vs Nottingham Forest: 51 % of duels won (50/98)
− Fri 28.8. home vs Manchester City: 51 % of duels won (55/107)
− Sat 22.8. away vs Everton: 46 % of duels won (46/99)
Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?
Hypothesis 2 · Shooting accuracy State · closed · 7 matches
Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.
Supports
+ Sun 18.10. away vs Brighton: 1/5 shots on target (20 %)
+ Fri 28.8. home vs Manchester City: 1/9 shots on target (11 %)
Challenges
− Sun 20.9. away vs Leeds: 4/12 shots on target (33 %)
− Sun 11.10. home vs Nottingham Forest: 7/13 shots on target (54 %)
− Sat 5.9. away vs Fulham: 5/10 shots on target (50 %)
− Sat 22.8. away vs Everton: 4/11 shots on target (36 %)
− Sat 12.9. home vs Ipswich: 4/11 shots on target (36 %)
Last season 32 % of shots on target (141 / 442)
Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?
Hypothesis 3 · Possession and duels State · closed · 7 matches
Possession may not be matched by duel wins.
Supports
+ Sat 22.8. away vs Everton: possession 58 %, duels 46 %
Challenges
− Sun 20.9. away vs Leeds: possession 49 %, duels 44 %
− Sun 18.10. away vs Brighton: possession 43 %, duels 49 %
− Sun 11.10. home vs Nottingham Forest: possession 43 %, duels 51 %
− Fri 28.8. home vs Manchester City: possession 28 %, duels 51 %
− Sat 5.9. away vs Fulham: possession 36 %, duels 55 %
− Sat 12.9. home vs Ipswich: possession 47 %, duels 56 %
Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?
Line: line mid-level: 9 offsides drawn
Progression: cannot get shots off: 39.6 passes per shot (league's 3./20 most) without controlling the ball, possession 43 %
Set pieces: in attack 22 corners (league 19./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 40 corners against (3./20), no headed goals conceded
Second half: output weighted to the second half (4+5 goals); own end tightens late (concessions 7+5); own threat rose in the second half in 3 of 6 matches (median +0.09 xG, league +0.15); opponents' threat rose in the second half in 2 of 6 matches (median −0.11 xG, league +0.15); first substitution on average at minute 52 (forced reaction) (covering 6/7 matches, 1 settled by half-time)
When leading: killed the game: led at half-time once, the opponent's threat fell in the second half and the lead held to a win (opponent xG vs Nott'm Forest 2.18 → 0.80)
Game state: Leading 11 % of playing time, level 40 %, trailing 49 %. League rank 1 for time trailing, so the season numbers lean towards chasing the game.
The whole system at the bottom end: Possession 43 % (league 18./20), own output 1.35 xG and 1.96 xG given to opponents (3./20 most): 4 metrics at the bottom end at once
We track whether any metric climbs out of the tail: a systemic concern only clears with several metrics moving.
Holds up across game states: in close periods 1.05 xG against per 45 min, league 1/20 (9 periods).
Goalkeeper level on show: 26 saves (league 3./20) against 1.96 xG
We track whether the save level holds as shot quality changes: one match cannot separate skill from luck.
Opponents get into the box: 86 shots against from inside the box (1st most of 20), 125 shots in total (69 % from the box)
We track whether the number of shots conceded in the box narrows: leaking the box predicts goals conceded over a longer sample.
Holds up across game states: in close periods 7.0 shots conceded from inside the box per 45 min, league 1/20 (9 periods).
| Finishing goals vs xG | Chance creation assists vs xA | |
| Defenders | −2.0 | −1.7 |
| Midfield | −11.5 | −9.4 |
| Forwards | −3.5 | −3.7 |
TEAM IDENTITY
Home ground
Selhurst Park opened on 30.8.1924, and Palace played their first match there against Sheffield Wednesday.
source: Crystal Palace FC (cpfc.co.uk), Selhurst Park formally opened 1924TEAM MEMORY
Crystal Palace are founded at the Crystal Palace exhibition grounds in Sydenham. The club move to Selhurst Park only in 1924.
source: Crystal Palace FC (cpfc.co.uk), Our history