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MY CLUB

Man City

”Superbia in Proelio”, ylpeys taistelussa

THE SQUAD

GKDonnarumma

DEFKhusanov

DEFGuéhi

DEFRúben

DEFGvardiol

MIDAnderson

MIDEnzo

MIDNdiaye

MIDCherki

MIDDoku

FWDHaaland

● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 8

fitness concernformno measured deviation

No measured deviations in the core squad right now.

Bench

MIDMcAidooMIDAllanDEFReisDEFBraithwaite

NEXT CHECK

LAST MATCH

Aston Villa – Man City 2–1 (half-time 1–0) · goals: Haaland ● result: round data

Sat 24 Oct

PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT

No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.

Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Man City shoot this season 14.6 times per match (8th in the league, last season 15.7 and 2nd in the league), Aston Villa: 15.9 shots conceded (league 16.). The match's shot count tells which number held. ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · last season for comparison
What happened: the pressure held: 15 shots (baseline 14.6, opponent concedes 15.9). ● round data
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Man City score this season from 18.6 percent of their shots (1st in the league, last season 12.9 and 2nd in the league), Aston Villa: save percentage on shots on target 64.5 (league 12.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created. ●
What happened: goalkeeping and finishing beat the team: 1 goals from 1.81 expected (-0.81), 7 % of shots scored. ●
Third: Set pieces. Man City win this season 5.6 corners per match (6th in the league, last season 6.5 and 1st in the league), Aston Villa: 4.3 corners conceded (league 13.). The expectation is at least 4 corners. ●
What happened: expectation met: 7 corners (expected 4), 1 goals. ●
Fourth: Box pressure delivers. 74 shots from inside the box (league 5./20) and 19 goals, 102 shots in total (7./20) ● season 2026-27 · from 7 match(es) · match statistics
What happened: observation repeated, 12 shots from the box, 1 goals, 8 shots against. ●
One more: The second half sharpens. Threat rose in the second half in 5 of 7 matches, median +0.99 xG per match (league +0.19). Without the single largest match (vs Sunderland, +1.47) the average is +0.69, and without matches where they were behind at half-time (1) +0.70 ●
What happened: observation repeated, threat 0.55 → 1.26 xG. ●
Finally: Rhythm. Threat rose in the second half in 5 of 7 matches, median +0.99 xG per match (league +0.19). Without the single largest match (vs Sunderland, +1.47) the average is +0.69, and without matches where they were behind at half-time (1) +0.70. ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · threat by half
What happened: Rhythm claim held (sharpens late): goals by half 0+1. ●
And: Player pick. Erling Haaland is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 38.3 points on average in 7 matches, top three 4 times. ● season 2026-27 · match ratings before the round
What happened: Player pick held: Erling Haaland was among his team's best in the match ratings (1/13) and produced 1+0. Match score 35, season average before the match 38.3. ●
And: Style of play. Keeps the ball: possession 64 % and 633 passes/match (league 1.). ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · match statistics
What happened: Style claim held: possession 63 % (league level 50 %). ●

From this match: 7/8 held

Threat by half (expected goals, gold = Aston Villa): shots 6/6 and 2/9 Two-half split, not a minute-by-minute curve.

Events by minute: Aston Villa on top, Man City below, 3 goals and 8 cards. Vertical lines at minutes 45 and 90. ● match events

Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.

This match's verdict on the Matches list →

NEXT MATCH

Man City – Brighton

Sat 31.10. · 17:00 · ○ fixture info, as of 25.10.

This match's preview on the Matches list →

PREVIEW READING

These claims are graded against the outcome after the match.

Pressure against defence: Man City shoot this season 14.6 times per match (8th in the league, last season 15.7 and 2nd in the league), Brighton: 10.7 shots conceded (league 3.). The match's shot count tells which number held. ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · last season for comparison

Finishing against the goalkeeper: Man City score this season from 18.6 percent of their shots (1st in the league, last season 12.9 and 2nd in the league), Brighton: save percentage on shots on target 78.3 (league 3.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created. ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · last season for comparison

Set pieces: Man City win this season 5.6 corners per match (6th in the league, last season 6.5 and 1st in the league), Brighton: 5.0 corners conceded (league 7.). The expectation is at least 5 corners. ● season 2026-27 · 7 matches before the round · last season for comparison

Box pressure delivers: 86 shots from inside the box (league 5./20) and 20 goals, 117 shots in total (7./20) ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · match statistics

The second half sharpens: Threat rose in the second half in 6 of 8 matches, median +0.96 xG per match (league +0.15). Without the single largest match (vs Sunderland, +1.47) the average is +0.69, and without matches where they were behind at half-time (2) +0.70 ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · match statistics

Rytmi: Threat rose in the second half in 6 of 8 matches, median +0.96 xG per match (league +0.15). Without the single largest match (vs Sunderland, +1.47) the average is +0.69, and without matches where they were behind at half-time (2) +0.70. ● season 2026-27 · 8 matches before the round · threat by half

Style of play: Keeps the ball: possession 64 % and 622 passes/match (league 1.). ● season 2026-27 · 8 matches before the round · match statistics

Baseline per match from last season: upper bar Man City, lower Brighton, vertical line the league level. ● measured 2025-26

The watch-list is published. The opponent card fills in about two days before kick-off.

MANAGER'S CORNER · FANTASY

Player card

Antoine Semenyo

Man City · midfielder

Downward trend expected

Last 5 matches: 4 goals and assists from only 1.1 xGI ●

In 576 similar past cases, the scoring pace slowed for 86 % within the next 3 matches (when xGI backed the pace, 77 %) ●

xGI per round ●

Match rating 1–10 ▷ 6.3

Next matches ●BHAhome

Compared with 105 midfielders, at least 270 min ●

xG / 90 min0.06

xA / 90 min0.24

Match rating (avg) ▷7.2

Playing time77 %

Season 2026-27, rounds 1–8553 min · 6/8 starts · 2 goals, 3 assists · xGI 1.8 ● measured

▷ in 8.4 % of teams · price 8.2

Player card

Enzo

Man City · midfielder

Breakout possible

Last 5 matches: xGI 1.6, only 1 goals and assists ●

xGI per round ●

Next matches ●BHAhome

Season 2026-27, rounds 1–8480 min · 5/8 starts · 1 goals, 0 assists · xGI 2.1 ● measured

▷ in 3.9 % of teams · price 6.9

Player card

Rayan Cherki

Man City · midfielder

Bench risk

Substituted off in round 8 (45 min) ●

xGI per round ●

Next matches ●BHAhome

Season 2026-27, rounds 1–8437 min · 6/8 starts · 4 goals, 2 assists · xGI 3.4 ● measured

▷ in 39.1 % of teams · price 8.0

Player card

Marc Guéhi

Man City · defender

Bench risk

Substituted off in round 8 (45 min) ●

xGI per round ●

Next matches ●BHAhome

Season 2026-27, rounds 1–8675 min · 8/8 starts · 1 goals, 1 assists · xGI 1.5 ● measured

▷ in 17.5 % of teams · price 6.0

Every player in the league, form and risks → All players

TEAM BASELINE

Man City

now 1st in the table · 21 pts ●

last season 2nd · 1st on merit

↗

Playing identity now Man City keep the ball and build through possession; build their attacks patiently. Last season: keep the ball and build through possession; defend with a high line. ● season 2026-27 · 8 matches · match stats: possession, passes, shots, offsides

What has changed?

Squad after the summer

Left after the 2025-26 season: Bernardo (2869 min, goals+assists 2+4, 2 % of the team's goals, no longer in a league squad); Nico Iglesias (1561 min, goals+assists 1+0, 1 % of the team's goals, now Newcastle).

New starters: Elliot Anderson (7 aloitusta, tuli joukkueesta Nott'm Forest); Iliman Ndiaye (7 aloitusta, tuli joukkueesta Everton); Enzo (5 aloitusta, tuli joukkueesta Chelsea); Ayyoub Bouaddi (1 aloitus, liigan ulkopuolelta).

● season 2025-26 minutes, goals and assists · current squad and starts

The team reaches the box: 11/13 shots from inside the box (Sun 23.8. home vs Bournemouth).

Last quarter hour · Man City gained 3 points after the 75th minute. ● match events 2026-27 · 75 matches

Signal hypothesis · strengthening · 8 matches

The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.

+ Sun 23.8. home vs Bournemouth: 11/13 shots from inside the box

− Sun 13.9. away vs Manchester United: 2/6 shots from inside the box

Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?

Evidence in detail

Holds up across game states: in close periods 5.2 shots from inside the box per 45 min, league 2/20 (13 periods). ● close period = margin of at most 1 goal for at least 75 % of the period's minutes · match stats by half

Last season 15.7 shots in the match (no box split from last season, so the comparison is shot count) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Other tracked hypotheses (5)

Hypothesis 2 · Threat by half State · strengthening · 4 matches

The threat appears weighted towards the second half.

Supports

+ Sun 20.9. home vs Sunderland: own threat 0.67 → 2.14 xG, opponents 1.57 → 2.00

+ Sun 13.9. away vs Manchester United: own threat 0.09 → 1.01 xG, opponents 0.20 → 0.80

+ Sun 11.10. away vs Liverpool: own threat 0.11 → 1.24 xG, opponents 0.51 → 0.51

+ Sat 17.10. home vs Ipswich: own threat 1.31 → 2.30 xG, opponents 0.45 → 1.27

Challenges

No counter-evidence yet.

Last season 47 % of goals came in the second half (36 / 77) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?

Hypothesis 3 · Defensive line State · strengthening · 3 matches

The defence appears to hold a high line.

Supports

+ Sun 13.9. away vs Manchester United: 4 offsides won

+ Fri 28.8. away vs Crystal Palace: 3 offsides won

+ Sat 17.10. home vs Ipswich: 5 offsides won

Challenges

No counter-evidence yet.

Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?

Hypothesis 4 · Duels State · mixed · 8 matches

Duels appear to carry this team's game.

Supports

+ Sun 23.8. home vs Bournemouth: 54 % of duels won (46/85)

+ Sun 13.9. away vs Manchester United: 53 % of duels won (53/100)

+ Sun 11.10. away vs Liverpool: 54 % of duels won (54/100)

+ Sat 5.9. home vs Coventry: 59 % of duels won (63/107)

Challenges

− Sun 20.9. home vs Sunderland: 41 % of duels won (39/96)

− Fri 28.8. away vs Crystal Palace: 49 % of duels won (52/107)

− Sat 24.10. away vs Aston Villa: 50 % of duels won (63/127)

− Sat 17.10. home vs Ipswich: 48 % of duels won (48/100)

Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?

Hypothesis 5 · Discipline State · mixed · 8 matches

The cost of indiscipline may rise.

Supports

+ Sun 13.9. away vs Manchester United: 3 cards, 10 fouls

+ Sun 11.10. away vs Liverpool: 2 cards, 14 fouls

+ Fri 28.8. away vs Crystal Palace: 2 cards, 10 fouls

+ Sat 24.10. away vs Aston Villa: 4 cards, 17 fouls

Challenges

− Sun 23.8. home vs Bournemouth: 1 cards, 11 fouls

− Sun 20.9. home vs Sunderland: 0 cards, 14 fouls

− Sat 5.9. home vs Coventry: 1 cards, 7 fouls

− Sat 17.10. home vs Ipswich: 1 cards, 8 fouls

Last season 1.8 cards and 9.7 fouls in the match ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?

Hypothesis 6 · Finishing State · mixed · 6 matches

Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.

Supports

+ Sat 5.9. home vs Coventry: 1 goals from 2.12 expected (-1.12)

+ Sat 24.10. away vs Aston Villa: 1 goals from 1.81 expected (-0.81)

+ Sat 17.10. home vs Ipswich: 3 goals from 3.61 expected (-0.61)

Challenges

− Sun 20.9. home vs Sunderland: 5 goals from 2.82 expected (+2.18)

− Sun 11.10. away vs Liverpool: 3 goals from 1.35 expected (+1.65)

− Fri 28.8. away vs Crystal Palace: 4 goals from 1.45 expected (+2.55)

Last season 2.0 goals and 15.7 shots in the match, 13 % of shots scored ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?

Show 76 findings

Sun 23 Aug home vs Bournemouth · Goalkeeper − 3 saves

Sun 23 Aug home vs Bournemouth · Shooting accuracy − 6/13 shots on target (46 %)

Sun 23 Aug home vs Bournemouth · Discipline − 1 cards, 11 fouls

Sun 23 Aug home vs Bournemouth · Duels + 54 % of duels won (46/85)

Sun 23 Aug home vs Bournemouth · Possession and duels − possession 66 %, duels 54 %

Sun 23 Aug home vs Bournemouth · Set pieces − 8 corners, 3 conceded

Sun 23 Aug home vs Bournemouth · Own box − 4 shots against from inside the box (5 in total)

Sun 23 Aug home vs Bournemouth · Box pressure + 11/13 shots from inside the box

Sun 20 Sep home vs Sunderland · Finishing − 5 goals from 2.82 expected (+2.18)

Sun 20 Sep home vs Sunderland · Threat by half + own threat 0.67 → 2.14 xG, opponents 1.57 → 2.00

Sun 20 Sep home vs Sunderland · Goalkeeper + 4 saves

Sun 20 Sep home vs Sunderland · Shooting accuracy − 6/16 shots on target (38 %)

Sun 20 Sep home vs Sunderland · Discipline − 0 cards, 14 fouls

Sun 20 Sep home vs Sunderland · Duels − 41 % of duels won (39/96)

Sun 20 Sep home vs Sunderland · Possession and duels + possession 55 %, duels 41 %

Sun 20 Sep home vs Sunderland · Set pieces − 6 corners, 5 conceded

Sun 20 Sep home vs Sunderland · Own box + 14 shots against from inside the box (17 in total)

Sun 20 Sep home vs Sunderland · Box pressure + 12/16 shots from inside the box

Sun 13 Sep away vs Manchester United · Threat by half + own threat 0.09 → 1.01 xG, opponents 0.20 → 0.80

Sun 13 Sep away vs Manchester United · Goalkeeper − 3 saves

Sun 13 Sep away vs Manchester United · Shooting accuracy − 2/6 shots on target (33 %)

Sun 13 Sep away vs Manchester United · Defensive line + 4 offsides won

Sun 13 Sep away vs Manchester United · Discipline + 3 cards, 10 fouls

Sun 13 Sep away vs Manchester United · Duels + 53 % of duels won (53/100)

Sun 13 Sep away vs Manchester United · Possession and duels − possession 45 %, duels 53 %

Sun 13 Sep away vs Manchester United · Set pieces − 7 corners, 6 conceded

Sun 13 Sep away vs Manchester United · Own box − 6 shots against from inside the box (16 in total)

Sun 13 Sep away vs Manchester United · Box pressure − 2/6 shots from inside the box

Sun 11 Oct away vs Liverpool · Finishing − 3 goals from 1.35 expected (+1.65)

Sun 11 Oct away vs Liverpool · Threat by half + own threat 0.11 → 1.24 xG, opponents 0.51 → 0.51

Sun 11 Oct away vs Liverpool · Goalkeeper + 6 saves

Sun 11 Oct away vs Liverpool · Shooting accuracy + 4/15 shots on target (27 %)

Sun 11 Oct away vs Liverpool · Discipline + 2 cards, 14 fouls

Sun 11 Oct away vs Liverpool · Duels + 54 % of duels won (54/100)

Sun 11 Oct away vs Liverpool · Possession and duels − possession 65 %, duels 54 %

Sun 11 Oct away vs Liverpool · Set pieces − 6 corners, 5 conceded

Sun 11 Oct away vs Liverpool · Own box − 6 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)

Sun 11 Oct away vs Liverpool · Box pressure + 8/15 shots from inside the box

Fri 28 Aug away vs Crystal Palace · Finishing − 4 goals from 1.45 expected (+2.55)

Fri 28 Aug away vs Crystal Palace · Goalkeeper − 1 saves

Fri 28 Aug away vs Crystal Palace · Shooting accuracy − 9/18 shots on target (50 %)

Fri 28 Aug away vs Crystal Palace · Defensive line + 3 offsides won

Fri 28 Aug away vs Crystal Palace · Discipline + 2 cards, 10 fouls

Fri 28 Aug away vs Crystal Palace · Duels − 49 % of duels won (52/107)

Fri 28 Aug away vs Crystal Palace · Possession and duels + possession 72 %, duels 49 %

Fri 28 Aug away vs Crystal Palace · Set pieces − 6 corners, 2 conceded

Fri 28 Aug away vs Crystal Palace · Own box − 6 shots against from inside the box (9 in total)

Fri 28 Aug away vs Crystal Palace · Box pressure + 12/18 shots from inside the box

Sat 5 Sep home vs Coventry · Finishing + 1 goals from 2.12 expected (-1.12)

Sat 5 Sep home vs Coventry · Goalkeeper − 3 saves

Sat 5 Sep home vs Coventry · Shooting accuracy + 4/15 shots on target (27 %)

Sat 5 Sep home vs Coventry · Discipline − 1 cards, 7 fouls

Sat 5 Sep home vs Coventry · Duels + 59 % of duels won (63/107)

Sat 5 Sep home vs Coventry · Possession and duels − possession 78 %, duels 59 %

Sat 5 Sep home vs Coventry · Set pieces − 4 corners, 5 conceded

Sat 5 Sep home vs Coventry · Own box + 8 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)

Sat 5 Sep home vs Coventry · Box pressure + 14/15 shots from inside the box

Sat 24 Oct away vs Aston Villa · Finishing + 1 goals from 1.81 expected (-0.81)

Sat 24 Oct away vs Aston Villa · Goalkeeper − 0 saves

Sat 24 Oct away vs Aston Villa · Shooting accuracy − 7/15 shots on target (47 %)

Sat 24 Oct away vs Aston Villa · Discipline + 4 cards, 17 fouls

Sat 24 Oct away vs Aston Villa · Duels − 50 % of duels won (63/127)

Sat 24 Oct away vs Aston Villa · Possession and duels − possession 63 %, duels 50 %

Sat 24 Oct away vs Aston Villa · Set pieces − 7 corners, 4 conceded

Sat 24 Oct away vs Aston Villa · Own box − 6 shots against from inside the box (8 in total)

Sat 24 Oct away vs Aston Villa · Box pressure + 12/15 shots from inside the box

Sat 17 Oct home vs Ipswich · Finishing + 3 goals from 3.61 expected (-0.61)

Sat 17 Oct home vs Ipswich · Threat by half + own threat 1.31 → 2.30 xG, opponents 0.45 → 1.27

Sat 17 Oct home vs Ipswich · Goalkeeper − 1 saves

Sat 17 Oct home vs Ipswich · Shooting accuracy − 6/19 shots on target (32 %)

Sat 17 Oct home vs Ipswich · Defensive line + 5 offsides won

Sat 17 Oct home vs Ipswich · Discipline − 1 cards, 8 fouls

Sat 17 Oct home vs Ipswich · Duels − 48 % of duels won (48/100)

Sat 17 Oct home vs Ipswich · Possession and duels + possession 70 %, duels 48 %

Sat 17 Oct home vs Ipswich · Own box − 7 shots against from inside the box (8 in total)

Sat 17 Oct home vs Ipswich · Box pressure + 15/19 shots from inside the box

A finding is one measured item from one match. A + mark supports the pattern, a − challenges it.

Suljetut hypoteesit (5)

What is closed is not deleted: it shows what we thought and why the view changed.

Hypothesis 1 · Possession and duels State · closed · 8 matches

Possession may not be matched by duel wins.

Supports

+ Sun 20.9. home vs Sunderland: possession 55 %, duels 41 %

+ Fri 28.8. away vs Crystal Palace: possession 72 %, duels 49 %

+ Sat 17.10. home vs Ipswich: possession 70 %, duels 48 %

Challenges

− Sun 23.8. home vs Bournemouth: possession 66 %, duels 54 %

− Sun 13.9. away vs Manchester United: possession 45 %, duels 53 %

− Sun 11.10. away vs Liverpool: possession 65 %, duels 54 %

− Sat 5.9. home vs Coventry: possession 78 %, duels 59 %

− Sat 24.10. away vs Aston Villa: possession 63 %, duels 50 %

Holds up across game states: in close periods 62 % possession, league 1/20 (13 periods). ● close period = margin of at most 1 goal for at least 75 % of the period's minutes · match stats by half

Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?

Hypothesis 2 · Own box State · closed · 8 matches

Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.

Supports

+ Sun 20.9. home vs Sunderland: 14 shots against from inside the box (17 in total)

+ Sat 5.9. home vs Coventry: 8 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)

Challenges

− Sun 23.8. home vs Bournemouth: 4 shots against from inside the box (5 in total)

− Sun 13.9. away vs Manchester United: 6 shots against from inside the box (16 in total)

− Sun 11.10. away vs Liverpool: 6 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)

− Fri 28.8. away vs Crystal Palace: 6 shots against from inside the box (9 in total)

− Sat 24.10. away vs Aston Villa: 6 shots against from inside the box (8 in total)

− Sat 17.10. home vs Ipswich: 7 shots against from inside the box (8 in total)

Last season 9.7 shots against in the match (no box split) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?

Hypothesis 3 · Goalkeeper State · closed · 8 matches

The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.

Supports

+ Sun 20.9. home vs Sunderland: 4 saves

+ Sun 11.10. away vs Liverpool: 6 saves

Challenges

− Sun 23.8. home vs Bournemouth: 3 saves

− Sun 13.9. away vs Manchester United: 3 saves

− Fri 28.8. away vs Crystal Palace: 1 saves

− Sat 5.9. home vs Coventry: 3 saves

− Sat 24.10. away vs Aston Villa: 0 saves

− Sat 17.10. home vs Ipswich: 1 saves

Last season 72 % of shots on target kept out (35 conceded / 127) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?

Hypothesis 4 · Shooting accuracy State · closed · 8 matches

Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.

Supports

+ Sun 11.10. away vs Liverpool: 4/15 shots on target (27 %)

+ Sat 5.9. home vs Coventry: 4/15 shots on target (27 %)

Challenges

− Sun 23.8. home vs Bournemouth: 6/13 shots on target (46 %)

− Sun 20.9. home vs Sunderland: 6/16 shots on target (38 %)

− Sun 13.9. away vs Manchester United: 2/6 shots on target (33 %)

− Fri 28.8. away vs Crystal Palace: 9/18 shots on target (50 %)

− Sat 24.10. away vs Aston Villa: 7/15 shots on target (47 %)

− Sat 17.10. home vs Ipswich: 6/19 shots on target (32 %)

Last season 34 % of shots on target (205 / 595) ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?

Hypothesis 5 · Set pieces State · closed · 7 matches

Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.

Supports

No longer backed by the evidence.

Challenges

− Sun 23.8. home vs Bournemouth: 8 corners, 3 conceded

− Sun 20.9. home vs Sunderland: 6 corners, 5 conceded

− Sun 13.9. away vs Manchester United: 7 corners, 6 conceded

− Sun 11.10. away vs Liverpool: 6 corners, 5 conceded

− Fri 28.8. away vs Crystal Palace: 6 corners, 2 conceded

− Sat 5.9. home vs Coventry: 4 corners, 5 conceded

− Sat 24.10. away vs Aston Villa: 7 corners, 4 conceded

Holds up across game states: in close periods 2.8 corners per 45 min, league 4/20 (13 periods). ● close period = margin of at most 1 goal for at least 75 % of the period's minutes · match stats by half

Last season 6.5 corners in the match, 3.8 against ● last season 2025-26 · 38 matches

Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?

● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · match statistics

Measured numbers for the season

Style of play · season 2026-27

Line: line mid-level: 18 offsides drawn ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · offsides and shot locations

Progression: progresses with control: 42.5 passes per shot (league 1./20 most), possession 64 % ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · passes and shots

Set pieces: in attack 46 corners (league 5./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 33 corners against (17./20), no headed goals conceded ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · corners and goal types

Second half: output weighted to the second half (7+13 goals); own end tightens late (concessions 5+4); own threat rose in the second half in 6 of 8 matches (median +0.96 xG, league +0.15); opponents' threat rose in the second half in 3 of 8 matches (median −0.01 xG, league +0.15); first substitution on average at minute 59 ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · goals and substitutions by minute

When leading: withstood the pressure: led at half-time 4 times and won, although the opponent's threat grew (opponent xG in matches where they led 3.05 → 4.18) ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · threat by half

Game state: Leading 42 % of playing time, level 39 %, trailing 19 %. ● minutes from goal events · ○ interpretation

Threat by half, average of 8 matches (gold = Man City): own threat rose in the second half in 6 of 8 matches, median +0.96 xG (league +0.15). Two-half split, not a minute curve.

Tracking · season 2026-27

Box pressure delivers: 86 shots from inside the box (league 5./20) and 20 goals, 117 shots in total (7./20) ● season 2026-27 · from 8 match(es) · match statistics
We track whether box pressure holds when opponents defend deeper: volume without goals is recorded as inefficiency.

One round is not a trend, so each line says what we track next.

Data limit: we see how many shots there are and where they come from (inside or outside the box), plus the game state. We do not see the route the attack took (through the middle or down the flanks) or where possession was lost.

Last season's baseline

The baseline is the 2025-26 squad. Since then these players left: Bernardo, Nico Iglesias. ● season 2025-26 minutes · current squad

Analyst's take

Man City's pace fell during the 4-1-4-1 spell

Before the change, over 5 matches Man City's points and xGD pace was 2.6 and +0.9 per match. In the 5-match 4-1-4-1 spell the pace fell: 1.2 points and +0.0 xGD per match. The formation change coincided with the turn, but does not explain it on its own.

Analytical synthesis Dropped leads (18 points in 8 matches) and concessions weighted to the second half (71 %) are two gauges of the same phenomenon: the grip loosens late. This is not about defensive skill but about lasting; watch the timing of substitutions, not the starting setup. ○ interpretation · every number computed from season 2025-26 ●

Insights

Matheus Nunes produced exceptionally for a defender: 9 goal involvements.

Antoine Semenyo clearly beat expectation: 23 goal involvements against 14.2 xGI.

● season 2025-26 · goal involvements from full-season round data

● Man City's season landed right where merit pointed: 2. and 1.

● Against Man City the passing game stalled: opponents fell 54 passes short of their own level, top-7 stuff.

● Held the level all season: only 1 of 10 months ended in the minus.

Attack: who produced the goals and assists

	Finishing goals vs xG	Chance creation assists vs xA
Defenders	−0.5	+5.4
Midfield	+7.7	+3.1
Forwards	+1.9	+2.5

Defence, team level

Chance prevention
little danger

+9.5

Shot-stopping
conceded vs chances

+7.7

Data profile · style, character, output ●

Style of play Keeps the ball: possession 60 % and 587 passes/match (league 1.). High defensive line: opponents offside 2.9 times/match (league 1.). Scoring splits evenly across the halves (47 % in the second). Rotation 2.4 line-up changes/round. ● season 2025-26 · half-time split from result data · rotation from round data · style from match stats (possession, passes, offsides)

Character Recovered 1 points from losing positions (1 matches) and dropped 18 points from leads (8 matches). One-goal matches 9–4. Home and away in balance: 45 / 33 points. ● season 2025-26 · HT–FT turnarounds from results data

Output Of shots on target, 38 % went in; of those faced, 28 %. Corners 6.5 vs 3.8 per match · 67 yellows over the season. ● season 2025-26 · shots on target, corners and cards from results data

Formation change · preliminary

● ● 4-3-2-1 → 4-1-4-1 · points 2.6 → 1.2/match · xGD 0.9 → 0.0 · before 5 matches, after 5 matches

Signals established profile season 2026-27 ●

What we don't know yet

no active hypothesis

TEAM IDENTITY

Home ground

Etihad Stadium

The Etihad Stadium was built for the 2002 Commonwealth Games, and City moved from Maine Road in 2003.

source: Manchester City FC (mancity.com), 2002 Commonwealth Games legacy

TEAM MEMORY

10.06 · 2023

Champions League title

Man City win the Champions League final in Istanbul 1-0 against Inter and complete the treble.

source: UEFA (uefa.com), Manchester City vs Inter, Mestarien liigan finaali 10.6.2023